Ten Lessons in Introductory Sociology
2nd Edition
ISBN: 9780190663872
Author: Kenneth A. Gould; Tammy L. Lewis
Publisher: Oxford University Press Academic US
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Chapter 1, Problem 30SE
Pedestrian fatalities In
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3. Bayesian Inference – Updating Beliefs
A medical test for a rare disease has the following characteristics:
Sensitivity (true positive rate): 99%
Specificity (true negative rate): 98%
The disease occurs in 0.5% of the population.
A patient receives a positive test result.
Questions:
a) Define the relevant events and use Bayes’ Theorem to compute the probability that the patient actually has the disease.b) Explain why the result might seem counterintuitive, despite the high sensitivity and specificity.c) Discuss how prior probabilities influence posterior beliefs in Bayesian inference.d) Suppose a second, independent test with the same accuracy is conducted and is also positive. Update the probability that the patient has the disease.
4. Linear Regression - Model Assumptions and Interpretation
A real estate analyst is studying how house prices (Y) are related to house size in square feet (X). A simple
linear regression model is proposed:
The analyst fits the model and obtains:
•
Ŷ50,000+150X
YBoB₁X + €
•
R² = 0.76
• Residuals show a fan-shaped pattern when plotted against fitted values.
Questions:
a) Interpret the slope coefficient in context.
b) Explain what the R² value tells us about the model's performance.
c) Based on the residual pattern, what regression assumption is likely violated? What might be the
consequence?
d) Suggest at least two remedies to improve the model, based on the residual analysis.
5. Probability Distributions – Continuous Random Variables
A factory machine produces metal rods whose lengths (in cm) follow a continuous uniform distribution on the interval [98, 102].
Questions:
a) Define the probability density function (PDF) of the rod length.b) Calculate the probability that a randomly selected rod is shorter than 99 cm.c) Determine the expected value and variance of rod lengths.d) If a sample of 25 rods is selected, what is the probability that their average length is between 99.5 cm and 100.5 cm? Justify your answer using the appropriate distribution.
Chapter 1 Solutions
Ten Lessons in Introductory Sociology
Ch. 1 - SECTION EXERCISES The data in the Table 1A were...Ch. 1 - SECTION EXERCISES The data in the Table 1A were...Ch. 1 - SECTION EXERCISES The data in the Table 1A were...Ch. 1 - SECTION EXERCISES The data in the Table 1A were...Ch. 1 - SECTION EXERCISES The data in the Table 1A were...Ch. 1 - SECTION EXERCISES The data in the Table 1A were...Ch. 1 - SECTION EXERCISES The data in the Table 1A were...Ch. 1 - SECTION EXERCISES The data in the Table 1A were...Ch. 1 - SECTION EXERCISES The data in the Table 1A were...Ch. 1 - SECTION EXERCISES The data in the Table 1A were...
Ch. 1 - SECTION EXERCISES Brain Size (Example 2) In 1991,...Ch. 1 - SECTION EXERCISES Students’ Ages The accompanying...Ch. 1 - Snacks Emmanuel, a student at a Los Angeles high...Ch. 1 - Movies A sample of students were questioned to...Ch. 1 - SECTION EXERCISES Older Siblings (Example 3) At a...Ch. 1 - SECTION EXERCISES College Students working at a...Ch. 1 - Finding and Using Percentages a. A statistics...Ch. 1 - Finding and Using Percentages a. A hospital...Ch. 1 - SECTION EXERCISES The data in the Table 1A were...Ch. 1 - SECTION EXERCISES The data in the Table 1A were...Ch. 1 - SECTION EXERCISES Two-Way Table from Data The...Ch. 1 - SECTION EXERCISES Two-way Table from Data Make a...Ch. 1 - SECTION EXERCISES Population Prediction The 2009...Ch. 1 - SECTION EXERCISES 2007 Population The 2009 World...Ch. 1 - Living with AIDS The table gives the number of...Ch. 1 - Population Density The accompanying table gives...Ch. 1 - Marriage rates the number of married people in the...Ch. 1 - Births and Deaths the following information about...Ch. 1 - Course Enrollment Rates (Example 5 ) two sections...Ch. 1 - Pedestrian fatalities In 2008, the National...Ch. 1 - Prob. 31SECh. 1 - Records of patients who have had broken ankles are...Ch. 1 - For Exercises 1.39 through 1.44, indicate whether...Ch. 1 - For Exercises 1.39 through 1.44, indicate whether...Ch. 1 - For Exercises 1.39 through 1.44, indicate whether...Ch. 1 - For Exercises 1.39 through 1.44, indicate whether...Ch. 1 - A researcher was interested in the effect of...Ch. 1 - A researcher was interested in the effect of...Ch. 1 - Effects of Tutoring on Math Grades (Example 8) A...Ch. 1 - Treating Depression A doctor who believes strongly...Ch. 1 - Early Tonsillectomy for Children (Example 6 )...Ch. 1 - Pneumonia Vaccine for Young Children A study...Ch. 1 - Copper Bracelets (Example 7 ) Some people believe...Ch. 1 - Weight Loss Study A group of overweight people are...Ch. 1 - Do Pesticides Cause Parkinson's Disease? A study...Ch. 1 - Breast Cancer Two drugs were tested to see whether...Ch. 1 - Flu Vaccine In the fall of 2004, there was a...Ch. 1 - Effect of Confederates on Compliance A study was...Ch. 1 - Vitamin C and Allergies (Example 8 ) Posted at the...Ch. 1 - Does Overeating Reduce Brain Function? The Harvard...Ch. 1 - Effects of Light Exposure (Example 9) A study...Ch. 1 - Scared Straight The idea of sending delinquents to...Ch. 1 - Obesity and Marital Status A 2009 study analyzed...Ch. 1 - Prob. 54CRECh. 1 - Probation a statistics student conducted a study...Ch. 1 - Scorpion Antivenom A study was done on children (6...Ch. 1 - Writing: Vitamin D Describe the design of a...Ch. 1 - Writing: Strokes People who have had strokes are...Ch. 1 - Medicaid Expansion Medicaid is a program...Ch. 1 - HIV-1 and HIV-2 Does infection with HIV-2 slow the...Ch. 1 - Death Row and Head Trauma A study conducted by...Ch. 1 - Brief Exercise and Diabetes As part of a study,...
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- 2. Hypothesis Testing - Two Sample Means A nutritionist is investigating the effect of two different diet programs, A and B, on weight loss. Two independent samples of adults were randomly assigned to each diet for 12 weeks. The weight losses (in kg) are normally distributed. Sample A: n = 35, 4.8, s = 1.2 Sample B: n=40, 4.3, 8 = 1.0 Questions: a) State the null and alternative hypotheses to test whether there is a significant difference in mean weight loss between the two diet programs. b) Perform a hypothesis test at the 5% significance level and interpret the result. c) Compute a 95% confidence interval for the difference in means and interpret it. d) Discuss assumptions of this test and explain how violations of these assumptions could impact the results.arrow_forward1. Sampling Distribution and the Central Limit Theorem A company produces batteries with a mean lifetime of 300 hours and a standard deviation of 50 hours. The lifetimes are not normally distributed—they are right-skewed due to some batteries lasting unusually long. Suppose a quality control analyst selects a random sample of 64 batteries from a large production batch. Questions: a) Explain whether the distribution of sample means will be approximately normal. Justify your answer using the Central Limit Theorem. b) Compute the mean and standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the sample mean. c) What is the probability that the sample mean lifetime of the 64 batteries exceeds 310 hours? d) Discuss how the sample size affects the shape and variability of the sampling distribution.arrow_forwardA biologist is investigating the effect of potential plant hormones by treating 20 stem segments. At the end of the observation period he computes the following length averages: Compound X = 1.18 Compound Y = 1.17 Based on these mean values he concludes that there are no treatment differences. 1) Are you satisfied with his conclusion? Why or why not? 2) If he asked you for help in analyzing these data, what statistical method would you suggest that he use to come to a meaningful conclusion about his data and why? 3) Are there any other questions you would ask him regarding his experiment, data collection, and analysis methods?arrow_forward
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