You prefer a fifty-fifty chance of winning either $100 or $10 to a lottery in which you win $200 with a probability of 1/4, $50 with a probability of 1/4, and $10 with a probability of 1/2. You also prefer a fifty-fifty chance of winning either $200 or $50 to receiving $100 for sure. Are your preferences consistent with von Neumann and Morgenstern’s axioms?
You prefer a fifty-fifty chance of winning either $100 or $10 to a lottery in which you win $200 with a probability of 1/4, $50 with a probability of 1/4, and $10 with a probability of 1/2. You also prefer a fifty-fifty chance of winning either $200 or $50 to receiving $100 for sure. Are your preferences consistent with von Neumann and Morgenstern’s axioms?
Chapter18: Asymmetric Information
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 18.12P
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Text of the problem from 'An introduction to decision theory' by Martin Peterson:
You prefer a fifty-fifty chance of winning either $100 or $10 to a lottery in which you win $200 with a probability of 1/4, $50 with a probability of 1/4, and $10 with a probability of 1/2. You also prefer a fifty-fifty chance of winning either $200 or $50 to receiving $100 for sure. Are your preferences consistent with von Neumann and Morgenstern’s axioms?
The book proposes as solution 'No. Your preferences violate the independence axiom.' without proposing the steps to reach that solution and I don't know why it is correct.
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