Week 1 2 3 4 Actual Passenger Miles (in thousands) 18 21 20 23 a) Assuming an initial forecast for week 1 of 18,000 miles, use exponential smoothing to compute miles for weeks 2 through 12. Use α = 0.25 (round your responses to two decimal places). Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Forecasted Passenger Miles 18.00 18.00 18.75 19.06 20.05 20.04 19.53 20.15 20.11 20.83 (in thousands) b) The MAD for this model = thousand (round your response to two decimal places). c) Compute the Cumulative Forecast Errors, cumulative MAD in thousands, and tracking signals (round your responses to two decimal places). Cumulative Forecast Errors 0.00 3.00 4.25 8.19 8.14 6.10 Are the tracking signals within acceptable limits? Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 MAD 0.00 1.50 1.42 2.05 1.65 1.71 Tracking Signal 2.00 3.00 4.00 4.94 3.56 5 20 Week 7 8 9 10 11 12 6 18 7 22 Cumulative Forecast Errors 8.57 8.42 11.31 12.48 8 20 9 10 23 11 22 13 MAD 1.82 1.61 1.75 1.70 Tracking Signal 4.71 5.22 6.45 7.36 12 23
The estimated times and immediate predecessors for the activities in a project at Howard Umrah's retinal scanning company are given in the following table. Assume that the activity times are independent.
Passenger miles flown on Northeast Airlines, a commuter firm serving the Boston hub, are shown for the past 12 weeks:
|
Week |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
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Actual Passenger Miles (in thousands) |
18 |
21 |
20 |
23 |
20 |
18 |
22 |
20 |
23 |
22 |
13 |
23 |
Part 2
a) Assuming an initial
18,000 miles, use exponential smoothing to compute miles for weeks 2 through 12. Use
α
=
0.25 (round your responses to two decimal places).
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Part 3
b) The MAD for this model
=
enter your response here
thousand (round your response to two decimal places).
Part 4
c) Compute the Cumulative Forecast Errors, cumulative MAD in thousands, and tracking signals (round your responses to two decimal places).
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Week |
Cumulative Forecast Errors |
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MAD |
Tracking Signal |
Week |
Cumulative Forecast Errors |
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MAD |
Tracking Signal |
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1 |
0.00 |
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0.00 |
— |
7 |
8.57 |
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1.82 |
4.71 |
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2 |
3.00 |
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1.50 |
2.00 |
8 |
8.42 |
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1.61 |
5.22 |
Part 5
Are the tracking signals within acceptable limits?
The control limits for the tracking signal are set at
±
3MADs. The tracking signals
▼
are not within
are within
acceptable limits.
NePassenger miles flown on Northeast Airlines, a commuter firm serving the Boston hub, are shown for the past 12 weeks:
|
Week |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
|
Actual Passenger Miles (in thousands) |
18 |
21 |
20 |
23 |
20 |
18 |
22 |
20 |
23 |
22 |
13 |
23 |
Part 2
a) Assuming an initial forecast for week 1 of
18,000 miles, use exponential smoothing to compute miles for weeks 2 through 12. Use
α
=
0.25 (round your responses to two decimal places).
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Part 3
b) The MAD for this model
=
enter your response here
thousand (round your response to two decimal places).
Part 4
c) Compute the Cumulative Forecast Errors, cumulative MAD in thousands, and tracking signals (round your responses to two decimal places).
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Week |
Cumulative Forecast Errors |
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MAD |
Tracking Signal |
Week |
Cumulative Forecast Errors |
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MAD |
Tracking Signal |
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1 |
0.00 |
|
0.00 |
— |
7 |
8.57 |
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1.82 |
4.71 |
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2 |
3.00 |
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1.50 |
2.00 |
8 |
8.42 |
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1.61 |
5.22 |
Part 5
Are the tracking signals within acceptable limits?
The control limits for the tracking signal are set at
±
3MADs. The tracking signals
▼
are not within
are within
acceptable limits.
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