Using @risk draw a normal distribution with a mean of 500 and a sd of 100. What is the probability the random number is less than 450
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- The game of Chuck-a-Luck is played as follows: You pick a number between 1 and 6 and toss three dice. If your number does not appear, you lose 1. If your number appears x times, you win x. On the average, use simulation to find the average amount of money you will win or lose on each play of the game.Based on Marcus (1990). The Balboa mutual fund has beaten the Standard and Poors 500 during 11 of the last 13 years. People use this as an argument that you can beat the market. Here is another way to look at it that shows that Balboas beating the market 11 out of 13 times is not unusual. Consider 50 mutual funds, each of which has a 50% chance of beating the market during a given year. Use simulation to estimate the probability that over a 13-year period the best of the 50 mutual funds will beat the market for at least 11 out of 13 years. This probability turns out to exceed 40%, which means that the best mutual fund beating the market 11 out of 13 years is not an unusual occurrence after all.Dilberts Department Store is trying to determine how many Hanson T-shirts to order. Currently the shirts are sold for 21, but at later dates the shirts will be offered at a 10% discount, then a 20% discount, then a 40% discount, then a 50% discount, and finally a 60% discount. Demand at the full price of 21 is believed to be normally distributed with mean 1800 and standard deviation 360. Demand at various discounts is assumed to be a multiple of full-price demand. These multiples, for discounts of 10%, 20%, 40%, 50%, and 60% are, respectively, 0.4, 0.7, 1.1, 2, and 50. For example, if full-price demand is 2500, then at a 10% discount customers would be willing to buy 1000 T-shirts. The unit cost of purchasing T-shirts depends on the number of T-shirts ordered, as shown in the file P10_36.xlsx. Use simulation to determine how many T-shirts the company should order. Model the problem so that the company first orders some quantity of T-shirts, then discounts deeper and deeper, as necessary, to sell all of the shirts.
- Suppose that you have two four-sided dice that are each equally weighted (i.e. equal chance of any of the four sides landing face up). One of them has values [12.5968, 2, -2 and -12.5968] , the other [12.5968, 4, -2 and -12.5968] Which of them has a σ of 9 using the probability model approach. a) [12.5968, 2, -2 and -12.5968] B) [12.5968, 4, -2 and -12.5968]Fill in the P(X=x) values to give a legitimate probability distribution for the discrete random variable X, whose possible values are -3, 0, 4, 5, and 6. Value x of X P (X = x) -3 0 0.23 5 0.17 6 0.30Suppose that you have two four-sided dice that are each equally weighted (i.e. equal chance of any of the four sides landing face up). One of them has values [12.5968, 2, -2 and -12.5968] , the other [12.5968, 4, -2 and -12.5968] . Which of them has a µ of zero using the probability model approach. 1. [12.5968, 4, -2 and -12.5968] 2. [12.5968, 2, -2 and -12.5968]
- A life insurance company has determined that each week an average of 7 claims is filed in its Nashville branch. What is the probability that during the next week no claims will be filed? A 0.0009 B 0.149 C 0.0818 D 0.001 Using Poisson distributionDefine event X, Interveral, Average weekly claim =, f(x) on ExcelSuppose you sample one value from a uniform distribution with a = 0 and b=20. a. What is the probability that the value will be between 12 and 172 b. What is the probability that the value will be between 4 and 72 c. What is the mean? d. What is the standard deviation? a. The probability that the value will be between 12 and 17 is (Type an integer or a decimal)Alternative A1 A2 Prior Probability State of Nature S1 S2 -40 100 0.4 75 0 0.6 There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur. When the true state of nature is S1, the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time. When the true state of nature is S2, the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time. What is the posterior probability of S2 given that the research predicts S2?
- Deborah Hollwager, a concessionaire for the Amway cener in Orlando has developed a table of conditional values for the various altenatives(stocking decision) and state of nature (size of crowd) Alternatives large average small large inventory $20,000 $10,000 -$2,000 average inventory $12,000 $12,000 $8000 small inventory $10,000 $6,000 $5,000 probabilities associated with the states of nature are 0.35 for a large crowd, 0.50 for an average crowd, and 0.15 for a small crowd. a) The alternative that provides Deborah the greatest expected monetary value (EMv) is the EMV for this decision is $________ b) For Deborah, the expected value of the perfect information (EVPI)=$______Bill Hardgrave, production foreman for the Virginia Fruit Company, estimates that the average sales of oranges is 4,700 and the standard deviation is 500 oranges. Sales follow a normal distribution.a) What is the probability that sales will be greater than 5,500 oranges?b) What is the probability that sales will be greater than 4,500 oranges?c) What is the probability that sales will be less than 4,900 oranges?d) What is the probability that sales will be less than 4,300 oranges?Q²