The marketing department of a soft drink company wishes to determine the maximum expected payoff from introducing a new crystal-clear drink. The department considers two investment levels ("Low" and "High") to choose between and regards market share as the key uncertainty that determines ultimate payoffs. These payoffs, depending on the choice of investment level and possible market share, are given in the table below. Investment Level Low High < 1% 300,000 -300,000 ANSWER: WORK: Market Share 1%-4% 400,000 300,000 > 4% 450,000 2,000,000 a) Which investment level should the marketing department choose if they are extremely optimistic about the market share? ANSWER: WORK: b) Which investment level should the marketing department choose if they want to minimize maximum regret?

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
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How would I calculate the expected values for probabilities that aren't a single value such as 1-4% and >4%? 

The marketing department of a soft drink company wishes to determine the maximum expected payoff from introducing a new crystal-clear drink. The department considers two investment levels ("Low" and "High") to choose between and regards market share as the key uncertainty that determines ultimate payoffs. These payoffs, depending on the choice of investment level and possible market share, are given in the table below.

|                             | Market Share           |
|-----------------------------|------------------------|
| Investment Level            | < 1%   | 1%-4% | > 4%  |
| Low                         | 300,000  | 400,000  | 450,000 |
| High                        | -300,000 | 300,000  | 2,000,000|

a) Which investment level should the marketing department choose if they are extremely optimistic about the market share?

ANSWER: ________________________________________

WORK:

b) Which investment level should the marketing department choose if they want to minimize maximum regret?

ANSWER: ________________________________________

WORK:
Transcribed Image Text:The marketing department of a soft drink company wishes to determine the maximum expected payoff from introducing a new crystal-clear drink. The department considers two investment levels ("Low" and "High") to choose between and regards market share as the key uncertainty that determines ultimate payoffs. These payoffs, depending on the choice of investment level and possible market share, are given in the table below. | | Market Share | |-----------------------------|------------------------| | Investment Level | < 1% | 1%-4% | > 4% | | Low | 300,000 | 400,000 | 450,000 | | High | -300,000 | 300,000 | 2,000,000| a) Which investment level should the marketing department choose if they are extremely optimistic about the market share? ANSWER: ________________________________________ WORK: b) Which investment level should the marketing department choose if they want to minimize maximum regret? ANSWER: ________________________________________ WORK:
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