The Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 was first discovered in India in October of November 2020. By the spring/summer of 2021 it became a variant of major concern. By November of 2021, the omicron variant had emerged from the Delta ancestor. ● . 1. Based upon the data below, calculate the maximum number of generations the SARS- Cov-2 virus could gone through beginning in April and ending in November of 2021. It has been estimated that the virus can go through 3-4 generations in patients who are not vaccinated or receiving anti-viral treatment. 2. The shift from Delta to Omicron was facilitated by the T478K mutation in the spike protein (at position 478, a single non-synonymous mutation, resulted in switching a tyrosine amino acid to a lysine). Assume that this mutation entered the viral population at frequency of 1 x 10-8 (this is the frequency of q in the 1st generation). Use the number of generations you calculated in part 1 and the equation below to estimate the value of w required to increase the frequency of T478K to a frequency of 1.000 in the time allowed. Run several simulations. Average fitness; Wavg = pw+q • ● Pt+1 = pw/Wavg w= the fitness of ancestor 1.00 the fitness of the T478K mutation = 3. Do any or all of your w values make a frequency of 1.000 within 976 generations? What implications do your results have for the control of mutations that increase viral transmission?

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The Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 was first discovered in India in October of November 2020.
By the spring/summer of 2021 it became a variant of major concern. By November of 2021, the
omicron variant had emerged from the Delta ancestor.
●
.
1. Based upon the data below, calculate the maximum number of generations the SARS-
Cov-2 virus could gone through beginning in April and ending in November of 2021. It
has been estimated that the virus can go through 3-4 generations in patients who are not
vaccinated or receiving anti-viral treatment.
2. The shift from Delta to Omicron was facilitated by the T478K mutation in the spike
protein (at position 478, a single non-synonymous mutation, resulted in switching a
tyrosine amino acid to a lysine). Assume that this mutation entered the viral population
at frequency of 1 x 10-8 (this is the frequency of q in the 1st generation). Use the number
of generations you calculated in part 1 and the equation below to estimate the value of w
required to increase the frequency of T478K to a frequency of 1.000 in the time allowed.
Run several simulations.
Average fitness; Wavg = pw+q
•
●
Pt+1 = pw/Wavg
w= the fitness of ancestor
1.00 the fitness of the T478K mutation
=
3. Do any or all of your w values make a frequency of 1.000 within 976 generations? What
implications do your results have for the control of mutations that increase viral
transmission?
Transcribed Image Text:The Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 was first discovered in India in October of November 2020. By the spring/summer of 2021 it became a variant of major concern. By November of 2021, the omicron variant had emerged from the Delta ancestor. ● . 1. Based upon the data below, calculate the maximum number of generations the SARS- Cov-2 virus could gone through beginning in April and ending in November of 2021. It has been estimated that the virus can go through 3-4 generations in patients who are not vaccinated or receiving anti-viral treatment. 2. The shift from Delta to Omicron was facilitated by the T478K mutation in the spike protein (at position 478, a single non-synonymous mutation, resulted in switching a tyrosine amino acid to a lysine). Assume that this mutation entered the viral population at frequency of 1 x 10-8 (this is the frequency of q in the 1st generation). Use the number of generations you calculated in part 1 and the equation below to estimate the value of w required to increase the frequency of T478K to a frequency of 1.000 in the time allowed. Run several simulations. Average fitness; Wavg = pw+q • ● Pt+1 = pw/Wavg w= the fitness of ancestor 1.00 the fitness of the T478K mutation = 3. Do any or all of your w values make a frequency of 1.000 within 976 generations? What implications do your results have for the control of mutations that increase viral transmission?
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