Table 2.2 Number of susceptible and infected individuals during the Great Plague of Eyam Date 1666 No. susceptible No. infected 254 Mid-May July 3/4 July 19 August 34 August 19 September 3/4 108 September 19 October 3/4 7 235 14.5 201 22 153.5 29 121 21 97 8 Unknown Unknown October 20 83

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The Derbyshire village of Eyam, England, suffered an outbreak of bubonic plague
in 1665–1666. The source of that plague was believed to be the Great Plague of
London. The village is best known for being the "plague village" that chose to iso-
late itself when the plague was discovered there in August 1665 rather than let the
infection spread. Detailed records were preserved. The initial population of Eyam
was 350. In mid-May 1666, nine months after the beginning of the epidemic, there
were 254 susceptibles and 7 infectives. The data about the epidemic in the remain-
ing months are given in Table 2.2. The infective period of the bubonic plague is 11
days.
(a) Estimate a
(b) Use the implicit solution of the SIR model to estimate B.
Transcribed Image Text:The Derbyshire village of Eyam, England, suffered an outbreak of bubonic plague in 1665–1666. The source of that plague was believed to be the Great Plague of London. The village is best known for being the "plague village" that chose to iso- late itself when the plague was discovered there in August 1665 rather than let the infection spread. Detailed records were preserved. The initial population of Eyam was 350. In mid-May 1666, nine months after the beginning of the epidemic, there were 254 susceptibles and 7 infectives. The data about the epidemic in the remain- ing months are given in Table 2.2. The infective period of the bubonic plague is 11 days. (a) Estimate a (b) Use the implicit solution of the SIR model to estimate B.
Table 2.2 Number of susceptible and infected individuals during the Great Plague of Eyam
Date 1666
No. susceptible
No. infected
Mid-May
July 3/4
July 19
August 3/4
August 19
September 3/4 108
September 19 97
Оctober 3/4
254
7
235
14.5
201
22
153.5
29
121
21
8
8
Unknown
Unknown
October 20
83
Transcribed Image Text:Table 2.2 Number of susceptible and infected individuals during the Great Plague of Eyam Date 1666 No. susceptible No. infected Mid-May July 3/4 July 19 August 3/4 August 19 September 3/4 108 September 19 97 Оctober 3/4 254 7 235 14.5 201 22 153.5 29 121 21 8 8 Unknown Unknown October 20 83
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