Solve the following decision tree using the EMV rule and state the optimal strategy. B C.25 D 35 E 40 F 2 20 -50 H J K M N R 180 50 S 55 T 45 U 25 V 35 W S X 5 Y 4 Z 6 AA 3 BB 4 CC 3 300 100 10 80 -30 120 500 -200 150 100 50
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![Solve the following decision tree using
the EMV rule and state the optimal
strategy.
B
C .25
D 35
E 40
F 2
G 8
20
-50
H
J
K
M
N
R
180
50
S 55
T 45
U 25
V 35
W S
X 5
Y 4
Z 6
AA 3
BB 4
CC 3
300
100
10
80
-30
120
500
--200
150
100
50](/v2/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcontent.bartleby.com%2Fqna-images%2Fquestion%2F890bd43a-629a-4db9-bada-fc7b4cf1f771%2F2ffda53c-69c8-4582-a4bd-5968ca7488e3%2F4nhswi.jpeg&w=3840&q=75)
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- The XY Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in ten thousand of pesos): Decision Alternative Manufacture, d₁ Purchase, d₂ Low Demand $1 -100 50 State of Nature Medium Demand S2 200 225 High Demand S3 500 350 MA The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s₁) = 0.35, P(s₂) = 0.35, and P(S3) = 0.30. a. Use a decision tree to recommend a decision. b. Use EVPI to determine whether XY Manufacturing Company should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand.Answer the following questions based on the following Sensitivity Report. Microsoft Excel Sensitivity Report Adjustable Cells Final Reduced Objective Allowable Allowable Cell Name Value Cost Coefficient Increase Decrease $B$19 Acres to Plant Watermelons 60 256 28.5 66.33333333 $C$19 Acres to Plant Cantaloupes 40 284.5 99.5 28.5 Constraints Final Shadow Constraint Allowable Allowable Cell Name Value Price R.H. Side Increase Decrease $F$11 Water Used per hour) 6,000 1 6000 1500 1000 $F$19 Acres Planted per hour) 100 199 100 20 20 1. How much can the price of watermelons drop before it isn't optimal to plant any watermelons? (round to 2 decimal places) 2. How much does the price of cantaloupes have to increase before it is optimal to only grow cantaloupes? (round to 2 decimal places)Exhibit 20-2Below is a payoff table involving three states of nature and two decision alternatives. Decision States of Nature Alternative s1 s2 s3 A 80 45 –20 B 40 50 15 P(s1) = .1, P(s2) = .6, and P(s3) = .3.Refer to Exhibit 20-2. The expected value of the best alternative equals _____. a. 12 b. 38.5 c. 29 d. 105
- Andrew Thomas, a sandwich vendor at hard rock café annual rockfest, created a table of conditional values for the various alternatives (stocking decision) and state of nature (size of crowd) Alternatives Large stock average stock small stock probabilities associated with states of nature are Big Big 35000 20000 10500 0.3 State of nature (demand) Average Small 15000 10000 8000 Average 0.5 determine the alternative that gives Andrew the greatest expected monetary value (EMV) compute the extpected value of perfect information (EVPI). Small -3000 5000 3000 0.2Mop and Broom Manufacturing has tracked the number of units sold of their most popular mop over the past 24 months. This is shown. Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Sales Month 238 249 254 267 277 282 402 296 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Sales 300 327 346 349 353 364 373 363 Month + 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Sales 361 381 375 383 384 401 409 403 a. Develop a linear trend line for the data. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places, e.g.,25.28.) Sales = (month) b. Compute a correlation coefficient for the data and evaluate the strength of the linear relationship. (Round your answer to 2 decimal places, the tolerance is +/-0.01.) Correlation coefficient is . It indicates linear relationship. (Use not rounded amounts to answer this question.) c. Using the linear trend line equation, develop a forecast for the next period,month 25. (Round your answer to 2 decimal places, the tolerance is +/-0.01. Do not round intermediate results used to achieve this answer.) Forecast for month 25 =An oil company must decide whether or not to drill an oil well in a particular area that they already own. The decision maker (DM) believes that the area could be dry, reasonably good or a bonanza. See data in the table which shows the gross revenues for the oil well that is found. Decision Drill $0 Abandon $0 Probability 0.3 Dry (D) Seismic Results No structure(N) Open(0) Closed (C) Drilling costs 40M. The company can take a series of seismic soundings (at a cost of 12M) to determine the underlying geological structure. The results will be either "no structure", "open structure or "closed structure". The reliability of the testing company is as follows that is, this reflects their historical performance. Reasonably good(G) $85 $0 0.3 Note that if the test result is "no structure" the company can sell the land to a developer for 50 m. otherwise (for the other results) it can abandon the drilling idea at no benefit to itself. Dry(d) 0.7 0.2 Bonanza(B) 0.1 $200 m SO 0.4 Conditional…
- 10 Dr. Lillian Fok, a New Orleans psychologist, specializes in treating patients who are agoraphobic (i.e., afraid to leave their homes). The following table indicates how many patients Dr. Fokh each year for the past 10 years. It also indicates what the robbery rate was in New Orleans during the same year: ! 1 F1 A 1 option Year Number of Patients Robbery Rate per 1,000 Population The simple linear regression equation that shows the best relationship between the number of patients and the robbery rate is (round your responses to three decimal places): ŷ=0+0x N @ 2 W S X command A where y Number of Patients and x = Robbery Rate. In year 11, if the robbery rate increases to 133.40, using trend analysis, the number of patients Dr. Fok will see = patients (round your response to two decimal places). In year 11, if the robbery rate decreases to 90.6, using trend analysis, the number of patients Dr. Fok will see = patients (round your response to two decimal places). #3 80 F3 E D $ 4 C 888…Develop a spreadsheet for the question. The vice president of finance has looked at your ooriginal scoring model and feels that tax considerations should be included in teh model with a weight of 15. In addition, the VP has scored the methods on tax considerations as follows: method A recieved a score of 3, method B recieved a score of 2, and Method C recieved a score of 1. How would this additional information affect your recommendation?To find the profit on the varying prices of a candy bar you will use: a. One variable Data Table b. Two variable Data Table c. Goal Seek d. None of these
- A pharmaceutical company sells 78 different products. The distribution of annual sales amounts last year for these products is as follows. Number of Products 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 5,17 301 37 50 75,61 100 150 Annual Sales ($000) 200, 78 200 250 Approximately what percentage of the products had annual sales of less than $80,000 last year? OA. 62 O B. 79.5 OC. 38 O D. 20.5 OE. None of the aboveA company sells its products to wholesalers in batches of 1,000 units only. The daily demand for its product and the respective probabilities are given below. Demand (Units) Probability 0 0.1 1000 0.3 2000 0.4 3000 0.1 4000 0.1 a. Determine the expected daily demand. b. Assume that the company sells its product at $3.90 per unit. What is the expected daily revenue?A television network earns an average of $1.6 million each season from a hit program and loses an averageof $400,000 each season on a program that turns out to be a flop, and of all programs picked up by thisnetwork in recent years, 25% turn out to be hits and 75% turn out to be flops. a) Construct a decision tree to help the television network identify the strategy that maximizes itsexpected profit in responding to a newly proposed television program. Make sure to label all decisionand chance nodes and include appropriate costs, payoffs and probabilities. b) What should the network do? What is their expected profit? c) The network can conduct market research to determine whether a program will be a hit or a flop. Ifthe market research report is perfectly reliable, what is the most the network should be willing to payfor it? Can you please include pictures of excel sheets. Having trouble determining what the excel sheet should look like
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