The state-of-nature probabilities are P(S₁) = 0.35, P(S₂) = 0.35, and P(S3) = 0.30. a. Use a decision tree to recommend a decision. b. Use EVPI to determine whether XY Manufacturing Company should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand.

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
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The XY Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a
component part at its plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The
resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff
table shows the projected profit (in ten thousand of pesos):
Decision Alternative
Manufacture, d₁
Purchase, d₂
Low Demand
$1
-100
50
State of Nature
Medium Demand
S2
200
225
High Demand
S3
500
350
MA
The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s₁) = 0.35, P(s₂) = 0.35, and P(S3) = 0.30.
a. Use a decision tree to recommend a decision.
b. Use EVPI to determine whether XY Manufacturing Company should attempt to obtain
a better estimate of demand.
Transcribed Image Text:The XY Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in ten thousand of pesos): Decision Alternative Manufacture, d₁ Purchase, d₂ Low Demand $1 -100 50 State of Nature Medium Demand S2 200 225 High Demand S3 500 350 MA The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s₁) = 0.35, P(s₂) = 0.35, and P(S3) = 0.30. a. Use a decision tree to recommend a decision. b. Use EVPI to determine whether XY Manufacturing Company should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand.
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