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10. The following two demand sets are to be used to test two different basic exponential smoothing models. The first model uses a = 0.1, and the second uses a = 0.5. In both cases, the model should be initialized with a beginning forecast value of 50; that is, the ESF forecast for period 1 made at the end of period 0 is 50 units. In each of the four cases (two models on two demand sets), compute the average forecast error and MAD. What do the results mean? Demand Set I Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Demand 51 46 49 55 52 47 51 48 56 51 45 52 49 48 43 46 55 53 54 49 Demand Set II Period 12345 1 2 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Demand 77 83 90 22 10 80 16 19 27 79 73 88 15 21 85 22 88 75 14 16

10. The following two demand sets are to be used to test two different basic exponential smoothing models. The first model uses a = 0.1, and the second uses a = 0.5. In both cases, the model should be initialized with a beginning forecast value of 50; that is, the ESF forecast for period 1 made at the end of period 0 is 50 units. In each of the four cases (two models on two demand sets), compute the average forecast error and MAD. What do the results mean? Demand Set I Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Demand 51 46 49 55 52 47 51 48 56 51 45 52 49 48 43 46 55 53 54 49 Demand Set II Period 12345 1 2 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Demand 77 83 90 22 10 80 16 19 27 79 73 88 15 21 85 22 88 75 14 16

Practical Management Science
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...
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The following two demand sets are to be used to test two different basic exponential smoothing
models. The first model uses 0.1, and the second uses 0.5. In both cases, the model
should be initialized with a beginning forecast value of 50; that is, the ESF forecast for period 1
made at the end of period 0 is 50 units. In each of the four cases (two models on two demand
sets), compute the average forecast error and MAD. What do the results mean?
Demand Set I Demand Set II
Period Demand Period Demand
1 51 177
2 46 283
3 49 390
4 55 422
5 52 510
6 47 680
7 51 716
8 48 819
9 56 927
10 51 10 79
11 45 11 73
12 52 12 88
13 49 13 15
14 48 14 21
15 43 15 85
16 46 16 22
17 55 17 88
18 53 18 75
19 54 19 14
20 49 20 16

10. The following two demand sets are to be used to test two different basic exponential smoothing models. The first model uses a = 0.1, and the second uses a = 0.5. In both cases, the model should be initialized with a beginning forecast value of 50; that is, the ESF forecast for period 1 made at the end of period 0 is 50 units. In each of the four cases (two models on two demand sets), compute the average forecast error and MAD. What do the results mean? Demand Set I Demand Set Il Period Demand Period Demand 1 51 1 77 2 46 83 3 49 90 4 55 4 22 52 10 6. 47 6 80 51 7 16 8 48 8 19 56 9. 27 10 51 10 79 11 45 11 73 12 13 52 12 88 49 13 15 14 48 14 21 15 43 15 85 16 46 16 22 17 55 17 88 18 53 18 75 19 54 19 14 20 49 20 16
Transcribed Image Text:10. The following two demand sets are to be used to test two different basic exponential smoothing models. The first model uses a = 0.1, and the second uses a = 0.5. In both cases, the model should be initialized with a beginning forecast value of 50; that is, the ESF forecast for period 1 made at the end of period 0 is 50 units. In each of the four cases (two models on two demand sets), compute the average forecast error and MAD. What do the results mean? Demand Set I Demand Set Il Period Demand Period Demand 1 51 1 77 2 46 83 3 49 90 4 55 4 22 52 10 6. 47 6 80 51 7 16 8 48 8 19 56 9. 27 10 51 10 79 11 45 11 73 12 13 52 12 88 49 13 15 14 48 14 21 15 43 15 85 16 46 16 22 17 55 17 88 18 53 18 75 19 54 19 14 20 49 20 16
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