Shakira's concerts behave like a Markov chain. If the current concert gets cancelled, then there is an 80%
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- Central topic markov chains: Every summer the Yates de los Lagos owners association decides if its annual regatta will be held in June, July or August. If it takes place in June, the probability of good weather is ¾; and if these conditions exist, the regatta of the next year it will be done in June with probability 2/3, in July with probability 1/6 or in August with probability 1/6; but if there is bad weather, next year's regatta will take place in July or August with equal probabilities. If the competition is held in July, good and bad weather have equal probabilities; if there is good weather, the next year's regatta will be held in July; If there is bad weather, the next regatta will take place in August with probability of 2/3 or in June with probability of 1/3. If the regatta takes place in August, the probability of good weather is 2/5; and if there are good conditions atmospheric conditions, next year's regatta will take place in July or August, with equal probabilities; but…Consider the following game in extensive form. a В В В d f h i e (3, 2z) (9, 5) (6, 32) (2z, 19) (15, 7) (2, 20) (7, 32) Z=7 (a) How many pure strategy profiles exist in this game? (b) In the unique subgame perfect Nash equilibrium, what is the sum of the payoffs to the two players?3. Consider an undiscounted Markov decision process with three states 1, 2, 3, with respec- tive rewards -1, -2,0 for each visit to that state. In states 1 and 2, there are two possible actions: a and b. The transitions are as follows: • In state 1, action a moves the agent to state 2 with probability 0.8 and makes the agent stay put with probability 0.2. In state 2, action a moves the agent to state 1 with probability 0.8 and makes the agent stay put with probability 0.2. . In either state 1 or state 2, action b moves the agent to state 3 with probability 0.1 and makes the agent stay put with probability 0.9. Find the optimal policy that minimises the expected total cost and find the corresponding value function.
- Chapter 15 Quiz 1 There are two types of decision models, deterministic and stochastic. True or False True False ezto.mheducation.com SavedConsider the following normal-form game. A B C T 1, 1 2, 2 3, 4 9, 3 B 2, 5 3, 3 1, 2 7, 1 Find all pure Nash equilibria and one mixed Nash equilibrium of this game.TOPIC: MARKOV CHAINS A housewife always uses one of three brands of detergent: "A", "B" or "C". Which one she buys depends inwhich of the three manufacturers is running a promotional campaign (with gifts such as combs, ornaments, etc.),etc.). Companies undertake such campaigns at random, regardless of whether or not competitors are running other campaigns at the same time.not running other campaigns at the same time. Brand "A" company runs a campaign ½ of the time, brand "B" runs a campaign 1/3 of the time, and brand "B" runs a campaign 1/3 of the time, and brand "C" runs a campaign 1/3 of the time.1/3 of the time, and "C" promotes 1/3 of the time. If the lady buys brand "A" on a certain occasion, the next time she will also buy brand "A".If she buys brand "A" on a certain occasion, the next time she will also buy brand "A", if your company is promoting or if neither of the other two is doing so.or she buys brand "B" if it is on promotion, but brand "A" is not, or she buys brand "C" if…
- A businessman is shipping a machine to another country. The cost of overhauling is $2700. If the machine fails in operation in the other country, it will cost $5500 in lost production and repairs. He estimates the probability that it will fail at 0.3 if it is not overhauled, and 0.2 if it is overhauled. Neglect the possibility that the machine might fail more than once in the 4 years (a) Prepare a payoff matrix. (b) What should the businessman do to minimize his expected costs? (a) Fill in the entries of the payoff matrix Fails Does Not Fail 8 81 (b) Would overhauling the machine before shipping minimize the businessman's expected costs? Overhaul Does Not Overhaul CETT OYes O NoTOPIC: MARKOV CHAINSA market research firm conducted a household survey regarding preferences for three brands of detergents.three brands of detergents. The survey was conducted by interviewing the same housewives at the beginning of two consecutive months.consecutive months. The results of the survey are as follows: Beginning of month 1: 200 respondents showed a preference for the "Ace" brand, 120 for the "Bold" brand, and 180 for the "Clean" brand.for the "Clean" brand. C) If the pattern of profit and loss does not change in the following months, how many housewives are estimated to prefer each brand at the end of month 2?A bus containing 100 gamblers arrives in Las Vegas on a Monday morning. The gamblers play only poker or blackjack, and never change games during the day. The gamblers' daily choice of game can be modeled by a Markov chain: 95% of the gamblers playing poker today will play poker tomorrow, and 80% of the gamblers playing blackjack today will play blackjack tomorrow. (a) Write down the stochastic (Markov) matrix corresponding to this Markov chain. (b) If 60 gamblers play poker on Monday, how many gamblers play blackjack on Tuesday? (c) Find the unique steady-state vector for the Markov matrix in part (a).
- ne bets $1. 0.45, he wins the game and with probability 1 - p = 0.55, he loses the game. His goal is to increase his capital to $3, and as soon as he does, the game is over. The game is also over if his capital is reduced to zero. Construct an absorbing Markov chain and answer the following questions. • What is the expected duration of the game? • What is the probability that he goes broke?Shakira's concerts behave like a Markov chain. If the current concert gets cancelled, then there is an 90% chance that the next concert will be cancelled also. However, if the current concert does not get cancelled, then there is only a 50% chance that the next concert will be cancelled. What is the long-run probability that a concert will not be cancelled? a. 1/4 b. 1/10 c. 1/6 d. 1/2 e. 5/6 f. None of the others are correctThe main topic is Markov Chains:Students in Geology class never know what is going to happen in the class, as the teacher may: give them a pop quiz, take them to field practice, analyze the topic of the day, or lecture on a special topic.If one day there is a test, the next day there is always a field practice.If one day there is field practice, the next day there is no practice or test, but there is still a chance of the day's topic or special lecture.of the day or of the special lecture.If on a certain day the topic is tested, the probabilities for the next day are ¼ for the test, 1/6 for the topic and 1/3 for the lecture.and 1/3 for the lecture.If one day there is a lecture, the odds for the next day are ¼ for the test, 1/8 for the practice, 1/8 for the topic analysis and ½ for the lecture.for the analysis of the topic and ½ for the lecture.One of the students has calculated that they can expect quizzes 43/287 of the lecture days; field practice72/287 of the class days; topic…
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