Orders (1,000s)/Year Quarter 1 2 3 4 18.6 22.4 January-March April-June July-September October-December 18.1 23.2 24.5 27.6 24.4 23.5 24.7 28.8 31.0 20.4 19.5 21.0 23.7 41.9 46.3 45.5 47.1 52.8
The Northwoods Outdoor Company is a catalog sales operation that specializes in outdoor recreational
clothing. Demand for its items is very seasonal, peaking during the Christmas season and
during the spring. It has accumulated the following data for orders per season (quarter) during
the past 5 years: a. Develop a seasonally adjusted forecast model for these order data. Forecast demand for each
quarter for year 6 (using a linear trend line forecast estimate for orders in year 6).
b. Develop a separate linear trend line forecast for each of the four seasons and forecast each
season for year 6.
c. Which of the two approaches used in (a) and (b) appears to be the more accurate? Use MAD
to verify your selection.
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