Answered: Consider the following time series.…

MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications

6th Edition

ISBN:9781119256830

Author:Amos Gilat

Publisher:Amos Gilat

Chapter1: Starting With Matlab

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1P

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Question

Consider the following time series.

Quarter	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3
1	70	67	61
2	50	42	52
3	59	61	54
4	79	82	73

(a)

Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? Is there an indication of a seasonal pattern?

The time series plot shows a horizontal pattern, but there is also a seasonal pattern in the data.The time series plot shows a horizontal pattern with no seasonal pattern present. The time series plot shows a trend pattern, but there is also a seasonal pattern in the data.The time series plot shows a trend pattern with no seasonal pattern present.

(b)

Use a multiple linear regression model with dummy variables as follows to develop an equation to account for seasonal effects in the data.

x₁ = 1 if quarter 1, 0 otherwise; x₂ = 1 if quarter 2, 0 otherwise; x₃ = 1 if quarter 3, 0 otherwise.

ŷ =

(c)

Compute the quarterly forecasts for the next year.

quarter 1 forecast quarter 2 forecast quarter 3 forecast quarter 4 forecast

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