Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based on the following historical data, calculate the following forecast and specify what procedure you would utilize. MONTH ACTUAL DEMAND 1 62 2 65 3 67 4 68 5 71 6 73 7 76 8 78 9 78 10 80 11 84 12 85 a. Calculate the simple three-month moving average forecast for periods 4 to 12. Note: Round your answers to 3 decimal places. b. Calculate the weighted three-month moving average for the periods 4 to 12 using weights of 0.50 (for the period t−1); 0.30 (for the period t−2) and 0.20 (for the period t−3). Note: Round your answers to 1 decimal place. c. Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for periods 2 to 12 using an initial forecast ( F1�1 ) of 61 and an α of 0.30. Note: Round your answers to 3 decimal places. d. Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend component forecast for periods 2 to 12 using an initial trend forecast ( T1�1 ) of 1.8, an initial exponential smoothing forecast ( F1�1 ) of 60, an α of 0.30, and a δ of 0.30. Note: Round your answers to 3 decimal places. e-1. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the forecasts made by each technique in periods 4 to 12. Note: Round your answers to 3 decimal places. e-2. Which forecasting method is best? multiple choice Three-month weighted moving average Exponential smoothing with trend forecast Three-month moving average Single exponential smoothing forecast
Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based on the following historical data, calculate the following forecast and specify what procedure you would utilize.
MONTH | ACTUAL DEMAND |
---|---|
1 | 62 |
2 | 65 |
3 | 67 |
4 | 68 |
5 | 71 |
6 | 73 |
7 | 76 |
8 | 78 |
9 | 78 |
10 | 80 |
11 | 84 |
12 | 85 |
a. Calculate the simple three-month moving average forecast for periods 4 to 12.
Note: Round your answers to 3 decimal places.
b. Calculate the weighted three-month moving average for the periods 4 to 12 using weights of 0.50 (for the period t−1); 0.30 (for the period t−2) and 0.20 (for the period t−3).
Note: Round your answers to 1 decimal place.
c. Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for periods 2 to 12 using an initial forecast ( F1�1 ) of 61 and an α of 0.30.
Note: Round your answers to 3 decimal places.
d. Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend component forecast for periods 2 to 12 using an initial trend forecast ( T1�1 ) of 1.8, an initial exponential smoothing forecast ( F1�1 ) of 60, an α of 0.30, and a δ of 0.30.
Note: Round your answers to 3 decimal places.
e-1. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the forecasts made by each technique in periods 4 to 12.
Note: Round your answers to 3 decimal places.
e-2. Which forecasting method is best?
multiple choice
-
Three-month weighted moving average
-
Exponential smoothing with trend forecast
-
Three-month moving average
-
Single exponential smoothing forecast
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