Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based on the following historical data, calculate the following forecast and specify what procedure you would utilize. MONTH ACTUAL DEMAND 1 62 2 65 3 67 4 68 5 71 6 73 7 76 8 78 9 78 10 80 11 84 12 85 a. Calculate the simple three-month moving average forecast for periods 4 to 12. Note: Round your answers to 3 decimal places. b. Calculate the weighted three-month moving average for the periods 4 to 12 using weights of 0.50 (for the period t−1); 0.30 (for the period t−2) and 0.20 (for the period t−3). Note: Round your answers to 1 decimal place. c. Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for periods 2 to 12 using an initial forecast ( F1�1 ) of 61 and an α of 0.30. Note: Round your answers to 3 decimal places. d. Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend component forecast for periods 2 to 12 using an initial trend forecast ( T1�1 ) of 1.8, an initial exponential smoothing forecast ( F1�1 ) of 60, an α of 0.30, and a δ of 0.30. Note: Round your answers to 3 decimal places. e-1. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the forecasts made by each technique in periods 4 to 12. Note: Round your answers to 3 decimal places. e-2. Which forecasting method is best? multiple choice Three-month weighted moving average Exponential smoothing with trend forecast Three-month moving average Single exponential smoothing forecast

MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications

6th Edition

ISBN:9781119256830

Author:Amos Gilat

Publisher:Amos Gilat

Chapter1: Starting With Matlab

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1P

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Question

Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based on the following historical data, calculate the following forecast and specify what procedure you would utilize.

MONTH	ACTUAL DEMAND
1	62
2	65
3	67
4	68
5	71
6	73
7	76
8	78
9	78
10	80
11	84
12	85

a. Calculate the simple three-month moving average forecast for periods 4 to 12.

Note: Round your answers to 3 decimal places.

b. Calculate the weighted three-month moving average for the periods 4 to 12 using weights of 0.50 (for the period t−1); 0.30 (for the period t−2) and 0.20 (for the period t−3).

Note: Round your answers to 1 decimal place.

c. Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for periods 2 to 12 using an initial forecast ( F1�1 ) of 61 and an α of 0.30.

Note: Round your answers to 3 decimal places.

d. Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend component forecast for periods 2 to 12 using an initial trend forecast ( T1�1 ) of 1.8, an initial exponential smoothing forecast ( F1�1 ) of 60, an α of 0.30, and a δ of 0.30.

Note: Round your answers to 3 decimal places.

e-1. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the forecasts made by each technique in periods 4 to 12.

Note: Round your answers to 3 decimal places.

e-2. Which forecasting method is best?

multiple choice

Three-month weighted moving average
Exponential smoothing with trend forecast
Three-month moving average
Single exponential smoothing forecast

Definition Definition Measure of central tendency that is the average of a given data set. The mean value is evaluated as the quotient of the sum of all observations by the sample size. The mean, in contrast to a median, is affected by extreme values. Very large or very small values can distract the mean from the center of the data. Arithmetic mean: The most common type of mean is the arithmetic mean. It is evaluated using the formula: μ = 1 N ∑ i = 1 N x i Other types of means are the geometric mean, logarithmic mean, and harmonic mean. Geometric mean: The nth root of the product of n observations from a data set is defined as the geometric mean of the set: G = x 1 x 2 ... x n n Logarithmic mean: The difference of the natural logarithms of the two numbers, divided by the difference between the numbers is the logarithmic mean of the two numbers. The logarithmic mean is used particularly in heat transfer and mass transfer. ln x 2 − ln x 1 x 2 − x 1 Harmonic mean: The inverse of the arithmetic mean of the inverses of all the numbers in a data set is the harmonic mean of the data. 1 1 x 1 + 1 x 2 + ...

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