Now develop a construction strategy for Sunray Co. assuming that the demand can be high, medium, and low with probabilities .7, .2, and .1 respectively. Expansion of a small plant will occur only if demand in the first 2 years is high. Table 2 provides estimates of the annual income. Ignore the time value for money. Table 2: Data for Sunray Co.: case 2 Annual income estimates (in £1,000) Alternative High demand Medium demand Low demand

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I need decision tree for Case II
1
Construction strategy for Sunray Co.
Case 1.
Sunray Co. plans to open a new plant in the East Midlands. The company can open a full-size plant now or
a small-size plant that can be expanded 2 years later if warranted by high demand. The time horizon for the
decision problem is 10 years. Sunray Co. estimates that the probabilities for high and low demands over the
next 10 years are .75 and .25, respectively. The cost of immediate construction is £5 million for a large plant
and £1 million for a small plant. The expansion cost of a small plant 2 years from now is £4.2 million. The
income from the operation over the next 10 years is given Table 1.
Table 1: Data for Sunray Co.: case 1
Annual income estimates (in £1,000)
High demand
Alternative
Low demand
Full-size plant now
Small-size plant now
Expanded plant in 2 years
1000
300
250
200
900
200
Your team has been formed to develop a construction strategy for Sunray Co. over the next 10 years, given that
after 2 years the company has the option to expand or not expand the small plant.
Case 2.
Now develop a construction strategy for Sunray Co. assuming that the demand can be high, medium, and low
with probabilities .7, .2, and .1 respectively. Expansion of a small plant will occur only if demand in the first 2
years is high. Table 2 provides estimates of the annual income.
Ignore the time value for money.
Table 2: Data for Sunray Co.: case 2
Annual income estimates (in £1,000)
High demand
1000
Alternative
Full-size plant now
Small-size plant now
Expanded plant in 2 years
Medium demand
Low demand
500
300
400
280
150
900
600
200
Transcribed Image Text:1 Construction strategy for Sunray Co. Case 1. Sunray Co. plans to open a new plant in the East Midlands. The company can open a full-size plant now or a small-size plant that can be expanded 2 years later if warranted by high demand. The time horizon for the decision problem is 10 years. Sunray Co. estimates that the probabilities for high and low demands over the next 10 years are .75 and .25, respectively. The cost of immediate construction is £5 million for a large plant and £1 million for a small plant. The expansion cost of a small plant 2 years from now is £4.2 million. The income from the operation over the next 10 years is given Table 1. Table 1: Data for Sunray Co.: case 1 Annual income estimates (in £1,000) High demand Alternative Low demand Full-size plant now Small-size plant now Expanded plant in 2 years 1000 300 250 200 900 200 Your team has been formed to develop a construction strategy for Sunray Co. over the next 10 years, given that after 2 years the company has the option to expand or not expand the small plant. Case 2. Now develop a construction strategy for Sunray Co. assuming that the demand can be high, medium, and low with probabilities .7, .2, and .1 respectively. Expansion of a small plant will occur only if demand in the first 2 years is high. Table 2 provides estimates of the annual income. Ignore the time value for money. Table 2: Data for Sunray Co.: case 2 Annual income estimates (in £1,000) High demand 1000 Alternative Full-size plant now Small-size plant now Expanded plant in 2 years Medium demand Low demand 500 300 400 280 150 900 600 200
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