Grear Tire Company has produced a new tire with an estimated mean lifetime mileage of 33,500 miles. Management also believes that the standard deviation is 4,500 miles and that tire mileage is normally distributed. To promote the new tire, Grear has offered to refund a portion of the purchase price if the tire fails to reach 30,000 miles before the tire needs to be replaced. Specifically, for tires with a lifetime below 30,000 miles, Grear will refund a customer $1 per 100 miles short of 30,000. Construct a simulation model to answer the following questions. (Use at least 1,000 trials.) (a) For each tire sold, what is the average cost of the promotion (in $)? (Round your answer to two decimal places.) $ 3.70 x (b) What is the probability that Grear will refund more than $25 for a tire? (Round your answer to three decimal places.) 0.037 X

Practical Management Science
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Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
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**Title: Analyzing Tire Mileage Promotions via Simulation**

**Introduction:**

Grear Tire Company has launched a new tire model with an estimated mean lifetime mileage of 33,500 miles. The company estimates a standard deviation of 4,500 miles, with the tire mileage following a normal distribution. To incentivize buyers, Grear offers a refund policy: a customer receives $1 for every 100 miles short of 30,000 if the tire falls below this threshold. The task is to construct a simulation model to investigate specific queries regarding this promotion.

**Simulation Overview:**

To address these queries, employ at least 1,000 trials to ensure the simulation's reliability and accuracy.

**Questions and Results:**

(a) *Average Cost of Promotion:*

- **Query:** For each tire sold, what is the average cost of the promotion (in $)?

- **Computed Result:** $3.70

This indicates the expected refund amount Grear will provide per tire under the promotion, averaged over numerous simulations.

(b) *Probability of High Refunds:*

- **Query:** What is the probability that Grear will refund more than $25 for a tire?

- **Computed Result:** 0.037

This reflects the likelihood that the refund amount exceeds $25, offering insight into the risk of high payout under this promotional strategy.

**Graphical Explanation:** 

While the image does not contain any graphs or diagrams, typical simulation studies might involve histogram graphs illustrating the distribution of tire mileages and corresponding refund amounts. Such visual aids could enhance understanding of the data distribution and the impact of the promotion.

**Conclusion:**

The findings illustrate both the average financial impact and the risk of higher payouts for Grear Tire Company. These insights can guide future promotional strategies and risk management decisions.
Transcribed Image Text:**Title: Analyzing Tire Mileage Promotions via Simulation** **Introduction:** Grear Tire Company has launched a new tire model with an estimated mean lifetime mileage of 33,500 miles. The company estimates a standard deviation of 4,500 miles, with the tire mileage following a normal distribution. To incentivize buyers, Grear offers a refund policy: a customer receives $1 for every 100 miles short of 30,000 if the tire falls below this threshold. The task is to construct a simulation model to investigate specific queries regarding this promotion. **Simulation Overview:** To address these queries, employ at least 1,000 trials to ensure the simulation's reliability and accuracy. **Questions and Results:** (a) *Average Cost of Promotion:* - **Query:** For each tire sold, what is the average cost of the promotion (in $)? - **Computed Result:** $3.70 This indicates the expected refund amount Grear will provide per tire under the promotion, averaged over numerous simulations. (b) *Probability of High Refunds:* - **Query:** What is the probability that Grear will refund more than $25 for a tire? - **Computed Result:** 0.037 This reflects the likelihood that the refund amount exceeds $25, offering insight into the risk of high payout under this promotional strategy. **Graphical Explanation:** While the image does not contain any graphs or diagrams, typical simulation studies might involve histogram graphs illustrating the distribution of tire mileages and corresponding refund amounts. Such visual aids could enhance understanding of the data distribution and the impact of the promotion. **Conclusion:** The findings illustrate both the average financial impact and the risk of higher payouts for Grear Tire Company. These insights can guide future promotional strategies and risk management decisions.
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