Even though independent gasoline stations have been having a difficult time, Susan Solomon has been thinking about starting her own independent gasoline station. Susan's problem is to decide how large her station should be. The annual returns will depend on both the size of her station and a number of marketing factors related to the oil industry and demand for gasoline. After a careful analysis, Susan developed the following table: SIZE OF GOOD FAIR POOR FIRST MARKET MARKET MARKET STATION (S) ($) ($) Small 50,000 20,000 -10,000 Medium 80,000 30,000 -20,000 Large 100,000 30,000 -40,000 Very large 300,000 25,000 -160,000 For example, if Susan constructs a small station and the market is good, she will realize a profit $50,000. (a) Develop a decision table for this decision. (b) What is the maximax decision? (c) What is the maximin decision? (d) What is the equally likely decision? (e) What is the criterion of realism decision? Use a value of 0.8. (f) Develop an opportunity loss table. (g) What is the minimax regret decision?

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100%
age of 12,000 miles per year
1 3-30 Even though independent gasoline stations have
been having a difficult time, Susan Solomon has
been thinking about starting her own independent
gasoline station. Susan's problem is to decide how
large her station should be. The annual returns will
depend on both the size of her station and a number
of marketing factors related to the oil industry and
demand for gasoline. After a careful analysis, Susan
developed the following table:
drive an average of 15,000 m
chance that she will drive 1
evaluating these lease option
keep her costs as low as pou
(a) Develop a payoff (cost)
(b) What decision woold E
optimistic?
(c) What decision would
pessimistic?
(d) What decision wou
wanted to minimize he
value)?
(e) Calculate the expectes
tion for this problem.
SIZE OF
GOOD
FAIR
POOR
FIRST
MARKET MARKET MARKET
STATION
(S)
($)
($)
Small
50,000
20,000
-10,000
Medium
30,000
-20,000
:3-32 Refer to the leasing deci-
Problem 3-31. Develop
80,000
Large
100,000
30,000
-40,000
this situation. Which op
on the minimax regret
would result in the la
Very large
300,000
25,000
-160,000
For example, if Susan constructs a small station
and the market is good, she will realize a profit of
$50,000.
loss?
3-33 The game of roulette
around the world. In
wheel has the number
Half of these slas an
(a) Develop a decision table for this decision.
(b) What is the maximax decision?
(c) What is the maximin decision?
(d) What is the equally likely decision?
(e) What is the criterion of realism decision? Use an
a value of 0.8.
black. In the UNed S
cally also has thg nun
zero), and bothof th
slots. Thurh=re as
he wh
(f) Develop an opportunity loss table.
(g) What is the minimax regret decision?
dealer spin
우ect
the oppos
the wheel Sidw
that is the winni
the
lease a hybrid car to
Transcribed Image Text:age of 12,000 miles per year 1 3-30 Even though independent gasoline stations have been having a difficult time, Susan Solomon has been thinking about starting her own independent gasoline station. Susan's problem is to decide how large her station should be. The annual returns will depend on both the size of her station and a number of marketing factors related to the oil industry and demand for gasoline. After a careful analysis, Susan developed the following table: drive an average of 15,000 m chance that she will drive 1 evaluating these lease option keep her costs as low as pou (a) Develop a payoff (cost) (b) What decision woold E optimistic? (c) What decision would pessimistic? (d) What decision wou wanted to minimize he value)? (e) Calculate the expectes tion for this problem. SIZE OF GOOD FAIR POOR FIRST MARKET MARKET MARKET STATION (S) ($) ($) Small 50,000 20,000 -10,000 Medium 30,000 -20,000 :3-32 Refer to the leasing deci- Problem 3-31. Develop 80,000 Large 100,000 30,000 -40,000 this situation. Which op on the minimax regret would result in the la Very large 300,000 25,000 -160,000 For example, if Susan constructs a small station and the market is good, she will realize a profit of $50,000. loss? 3-33 The game of roulette around the world. In wheel has the number Half of these slas an (a) Develop a decision table for this decision. (b) What is the maximax decision? (c) What is the maximin decision? (d) What is the equally likely decision? (e) What is the criterion of realism decision? Use an a value of 0.8. black. In the UNed S cally also has thg nun zero), and bothof th slots. Thurh=re as he wh (f) Develop an opportunity loss table. (g) What is the minimax regret decision? dealer spin 우ect the oppos the wheel Sidw that is the winni the lease a hybrid car to
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