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B-1. Which is more desirable assuming data are COST Decertaine the course dagram. 90 60 (45) 45 99 so 50 30 20 /2 40 50 B-2. A firm must decide whether to construct a small, medium or large stamping plant. A consultant's report indicates a 0.20 probability that demand will be low and 0.80 that demand will be high. If the firm builds a small facility and demand turns out to be low, the Net Present Value (NPV) will be $42M. If demand turns out to be high, the firm can either subcontract and realize the NPV of $42M or expand greatly for a Net Present Value of $48M. The firm could build a medium size facility as a hedge: if demand turns out to be low, its NPV is estimated at $22M; if demand turns out to be high, the firm could do nothing and realize a NPV of $46M, or could expand and realize a NPV of $50OM. If the firm builds a large facility and demand is low, the NPV will be ($20M), whereas high demand will result in a NPV of $72M. a) Analyze and solve this problem using a decision tree b) What is the Maximin Alternative and c) Compute the EVPI

B-1. Which is more desirable assuming data are COST Decertaine the course dagram. 90 60 (45) 45 99 so 50 30 20 /2 40 50 B-2. A firm must decide whether to construct a small, medium or large stamping plant. A consultant's report indicates a 0.20 probability that demand will be low and 0.80 that demand will be high. If the firm builds a small facility and demand turns out to be low, the Net Present Value (NPV) will be $42M. If demand turns out to be high, the firm can either subcontract and realize the NPV of $42M or expand greatly for a Net Present Value of $48M. The firm could build a medium size facility as a hedge: if demand turns out to be low, its NPV is estimated at $22M; if demand turns out to be high, the firm could do nothing and realize a NPV of $46M, or could expand and realize a NPV of $50OM. If the firm builds a large facility and demand is low, the NPV will be ($20M), whereas high demand will result in a NPV of $72M. a) Analyze and solve this problem using a decision tree b) What is the Maximin Alternative and c) Compute the EVPI

Practical Management Science
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...
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B-1. Which is more desirable assuming data are COST Decenaine the cousen dagram. 60 90 60 1/3 (45) 45 99 40 50 50 30 20 /2 40 50 B-2. A firm must decide whether to construct a small, medium or large stamping plant. A consultant's report indicates a 0.20 probability that demand will be low and 0.80 that demand will be high. If the firm builds a small facility and demand turns out to be low, the Net Present Value (NPV) will be $42M. If demand turns out to be high, the firm can either subcontract and realize the NPV of $42M or expand greatly for a Net Present Value of $48M. The firm could build a medium size facility as a hedge: if demand turns out to be low, its NPV is estimated at $22M; if demand turns out to be high, the firm could do nothing and realize a NPV of $46M, or could expand and realize a NPV of $50M. If the firm builds a large facility and demand is low, the NPV will be ($20M), whereas high demand will result in a NPV of $72M. a) Analyze and solve this problem using a decision tree b) What is the Maximin Alternative and c) Compute the EVPI
Transcribed Image Text:B-1. Which is more desirable assuming data are COST Decenaine the cousen dagram. 60 90 60 1/3 (45) 45 99 40 50 50 30 20 /2 40 50 B-2. A firm must decide whether to construct a small, medium or large stamping plant. A consultant's report indicates a 0.20 probability that demand will be low and 0.80 that demand will be high. If the firm builds a small facility and demand turns out to be low, the Net Present Value (NPV) will be $42M. If demand turns out to be high, the firm can either subcontract and realize the NPV of $42M or expand greatly for a Net Present Value of $48M. The firm could build a medium size facility as a hedge: if demand turns out to be low, its NPV is estimated at $22M; if demand turns out to be high, the firm could do nothing and realize a NPV of $46M, or could expand and realize a NPV of $50M. If the firm builds a large facility and demand is low, the NPV will be ($20M), whereas high demand will result in a NPV of $72M. a) Analyze and solve this problem using a decision tree b) What is the Maximin Alternative and c) Compute the EVPI
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