1. Tom Simpson, Director of the Chamber of Commerce for Exeter township is investigating the past ten years of tourist visits to the area. The following data has been gathered on number of tourists who signed into the local information center. Year Number of tourists 1 12345 6 7 8 9 10 ● 700 248 633 458 1410 1588 1629 Tom is interested in implementing a forecasting system and is investigating the following forecasting methods as possibilities: ● 1301 1455 1989 Simple moving average, Weighted moving average, Simple Exponential Smoothing, Regression. Choose two of the above methods and calculate forecasts for Year 11 o If you use Weighted moving average, use .5, .3, .2 for the weights (.5 for most recent and so on) o If you use Exponential Smoothing, begin with the assumption the Forecast for Year 9 was 1500 Use .3 for your alpha if you use this method. Present your forecast results .
1. Tom Simpson, Director of the Chamber of Commerce for Exeter township is investigating the past ten years of tourist visits to the area. The following data has been gathered on number of tourists who signed into the local information center. Year Number of tourists 1 12345 6 7 8 9 10 ● 700 248 633 458 1410 1588 1629 Tom is interested in implementing a forecasting system and is investigating the following forecasting methods as possibilities: ● 1301 1455 1989 Simple moving average, Weighted moving average, Simple Exponential Smoothing, Regression. Choose two of the above methods and calculate forecasts for Year 11 o If you use Weighted moving average, use .5, .3, .2 for the weights (.5 for most recent and so on) o If you use Exponential Smoothing, begin with the assumption the Forecast for Year 9 was 1500 Use .3 for your alpha if you use this method. Present your forecast results .
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models
Section13.6: Moving Averages Models
Problem 19P: The file P13_19.xlsx contains the weekly sales of a particular brand of paper towels at a...
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(Use this excel file to show formulas used)
![1. Tom Simpson, Director of the Chamber of Commerce for Exeter township is investigating the past ten years of
tourist visits to the area. The following data has been gathered on number of tourists who signed into the local
information center.
Year
Number of tourists
1
700
2.
248
3
633
458
1410
1588
1629
1301
1455
1989
6-
10
Tom is interested in implementing a forecasting system and is investigating the following forecasting methods as
possibilities:
Simple moving average, Weighted moving average, Simple Exponential Smoothing, Regression.
Choose two of the above methods and calculate forecasts for Year 11
If you use Weighted moving average, use .5, .3, .2 for the weights (.5 for most recent and so on)
If you use Exponential Smoothing, begin with the assumption the Forecast for Year 9 was 1500
Use .3 for your alpha if you use this method.
Present your forecast results
9°F
lostly cloudy
[田
DELL
456 78](/v2/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcontent.bartleby.com%2Fqna-images%2Fquestion%2Fed18415a-af27-44e8-aa80-ad5d454cc154%2F792b2246-e27c-4ccc-8fe9-0aa928db785d%2Fvc8uihj_processed.jpeg&w=3840&q=75)
Transcribed Image Text:1. Tom Simpson, Director of the Chamber of Commerce for Exeter township is investigating the past ten years of
tourist visits to the area. The following data has been gathered on number of tourists who signed into the local
information center.
Year
Number of tourists
1
700
2.
248
3
633
458
1410
1588
1629
1301
1455
1989
6-
10
Tom is interested in implementing a forecasting system and is investigating the following forecasting methods as
possibilities:
Simple moving average, Weighted moving average, Simple Exponential Smoothing, Regression.
Choose two of the above methods and calculate forecasts for Year 11
If you use Weighted moving average, use .5, .3, .2 for the weights (.5 for most recent and so on)
If you use Exponential Smoothing, begin with the assumption the Forecast for Year 9 was 1500
Use .3 for your alpha if you use this method.
Present your forecast results
9°F
lostly cloudy
[田
DELL
456 78
![A
В
C
E
G
H.
K
M
1
Forecast 1
3.
Year
Number of Tourists
Simple Moving
Error
|Error|
Error
|Error|%
Weights
Alpha
Intercept
1
700
0.2
0.3
238.4
248
0.3
Slope
3
633
0.5
164.13
7
4
458
8
1410
9.
6.
1588
10
7
1629
11
8.
1301
12
1455
In Green Cells, write the name of the forecast type:
Simple moving average, Weighted moving average,
Simple Exponential Smoothing, Regression
13
10
1989
14
11
15
MAD
MSE
МАРЕ
16
P.
2.
2.
4.](/v2/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcontent.bartleby.com%2Fqna-images%2Fquestion%2Fed18415a-af27-44e8-aa80-ad5d454cc154%2F792b2246-e27c-4ccc-8fe9-0aa928db785d%2F4jumorq_processed.jpeg&w=3840&q=75)
Transcribed Image Text:A
В
C
E
G
H.
K
M
1
Forecast 1
3.
Year
Number of Tourists
Simple Moving
Error
|Error|
Error
|Error|%
Weights
Alpha
Intercept
1
700
0.2
0.3
238.4
248
0.3
Slope
3
633
0.5
164.13
7
4
458
8
1410
9.
6.
1588
10
7
1629
11
8.
1301
12
1455
In Green Cells, write the name of the forecast type:
Simple moving average, Weighted moving average,
Simple Exponential Smoothing, Regression
13
10
1989
14
11
15
MAD
MSE
МАРЕ
16
P.
2.
2.
4.
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