Assisted Reproductive Technology (ART) is a collection of techniques that help facilitate pregnancy (e.g. vitro fertilization). A 2008 report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that ART h been successful in leading to a live birth in 31% of cases. A new fertility clinic claims that their success ra is higher than average. Using a random sample, 12 of 30 patients were successful. A consumer watchdog group would like to determine if this provides strong evidence to support the company's claim. a) Write the hypotheses to test if the success rate for ART at this clinic is significantly different than the 31% success rate reported by the CDC.

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Assisted Reproductive Technology (ART) is a collection of techniques that help facilitate pregnancy (e.g. in
vitro fertilization). A 2008 report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that ART has
been successful in leading to a live birth in 31% of cases. A new fertility clinic claims that their success rate
is higher than average. Using a random sample, 12 of 30 patients were successful. A consumer watchdog
group would like to determine if this provides strong evidence to support the company's claim.
a) Write the hypotheses to test if the success rate for ART at this clinic is significantly different than the
31% success rate reported by the CDC.
Ho: Select an answer
=
HA: Select an answer
b) What is the null value?
c) What is the point estimate?
d) Describe a setup for a simulation that would be appropriate in this situation and how the p-value can be
calculated using the simulation results.
• To simulate the null value of
, grab 100 cards and mark
a success.
Thoroughly shuffle the cards and draw 1. Make a note and put the card back. Keep repeating until
you have matched the sample size of
• Calculate the simulated point estimate, then repeat many times.
• Make a graph of the simulated point estimates. This graph is called Select an answer
• Locate the point estimate on the graph, then find the proportion of simulations above the point
estimate or away from the center, then multiply by two. This is called Select an answer
e) Below is a histogram showing the distribution of p, in 10,000 simulations under the null hypothesis.
Estimate the two-sided p-value using the plot.
The p-value is about
f) What is your decision about the null hypothesis?
O You should reject the null hypothesis.
O You should fail to reject the null hypothesis.
O You should accept the null hypothesis.
g) What is your conclusion about the alternative hypothesis?
O There is sufficient evidence to claim the the new fertility clinic success rate is different than
average. Since the point estimate is larger than the null value, there is evidence the success rate is
higher than average.
O There is sufficient evidence to claim the the new fertility clinic success rate is different than
average. Since the point estimate is less than the null value, there is evidence the success rate is
lower than average.
O There is insufficient evidence to claim the the new fertility clinic success rate is different than the
average.
h) After performing this analysis, the consumer group releases the following news headline: "Infertility
clinic falsely advertises better success rates". Is this statement appropriate?
O Yes, the sample proved the the new fertility clinic success rate is no different than average.
O No, the the new fertility clinic success rate may be better than average, but the sample was
inconclusive.
O No, the sample proved the the new fertility clinic success rate is better than average.
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Psim
Transcribed Image Text:Assisted Reproductive Technology (ART) is a collection of techniques that help facilitate pregnancy (e.g. in vitro fertilization). A 2008 report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that ART has been successful in leading to a live birth in 31% of cases. A new fertility clinic claims that their success rate is higher than average. Using a random sample, 12 of 30 patients were successful. A consumer watchdog group would like to determine if this provides strong evidence to support the company's claim. a) Write the hypotheses to test if the success rate for ART at this clinic is significantly different than the 31% success rate reported by the CDC. Ho: Select an answer = HA: Select an answer b) What is the null value? c) What is the point estimate? d) Describe a setup for a simulation that would be appropriate in this situation and how the p-value can be calculated using the simulation results. • To simulate the null value of , grab 100 cards and mark a success. Thoroughly shuffle the cards and draw 1. Make a note and put the card back. Keep repeating until you have matched the sample size of • Calculate the simulated point estimate, then repeat many times. • Make a graph of the simulated point estimates. This graph is called Select an answer • Locate the point estimate on the graph, then find the proportion of simulations above the point estimate or away from the center, then multiply by two. This is called Select an answer e) Below is a histogram showing the distribution of p, in 10,000 simulations under the null hypothesis. Estimate the two-sided p-value using the plot. The p-value is about f) What is your decision about the null hypothesis? O You should reject the null hypothesis. O You should fail to reject the null hypothesis. O You should accept the null hypothesis. g) What is your conclusion about the alternative hypothesis? O There is sufficient evidence to claim the the new fertility clinic success rate is different than average. Since the point estimate is larger than the null value, there is evidence the success rate is higher than average. O There is sufficient evidence to claim the the new fertility clinic success rate is different than average. Since the point estimate is less than the null value, there is evidence the success rate is lower than average. O There is insufficient evidence to claim the the new fertility clinic success rate is different than the average. h) After performing this analysis, the consumer group releases the following news headline: "Infertility clinic falsely advertises better success rates". Is this statement appropriate? O Yes, the sample proved the the new fertility clinic success rate is no different than average. O No, the the new fertility clinic success rate may be better than average, but the sample was inconclusive. O No, the sample proved the the new fertility clinic success rate is better than average. 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 Psim
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