a. Plot the monthly sales data. Do you observe any trend, cycles or random variations? b. Forecast January sales using each of the following: a. Naïve method b. A 3-month moving average c. A 6-month weighted moving average using 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.2, 0.2 and 0.3 with the heaviest weights applied to the most recent months d. Exponential smoothing using an x = 0.3 and a September forecast of 18. c. Compute the MAD and MAPE for the naïve method and 3-month moving average.

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2. Solve using Excel. The monthly sales for Telco Batteries, Inc., were as follows:
Month
Sales
January
February
March
April
May
20
21
15
14
13
June
16
July
August
September
17
18
20
October
20
November
21
December
23
a. Plot the monthly sales data. Do you observe any trend, cycles or random variations?
b. Forecast January sales using each of the following:
a. Naïve method
b. A 3-month moving average
c. A 6-month weighted moving average using 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.2, 0.2 and 0.3 with
the heaviest weights applied to the most recent months
d. Exponential smoothing using an x = 0.3 and a September forecast of 18.
c. Compute the MAD and MAPE for the naïve method and 3-month moving average.
Transcribed Image Text:2. Solve using Excel. The monthly sales for Telco Batteries, Inc., were as follows: Month Sales January February March April May 20 21 15 14 13 June 16 July August September 17 18 20 October 20 November 21 December 23 a. Plot the monthly sales data. Do you observe any trend, cycles or random variations? b. Forecast January sales using each of the following: a. Naïve method b. A 3-month moving average c. A 6-month weighted moving average using 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.2, 0.2 and 0.3 with the heaviest weights applied to the most recent months d. Exponential smoothing using an x = 0.3 and a September forecast of 18. c. Compute the MAD and MAPE for the naïve method and 3-month moving average.
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