a) Using a 3-year moving average, the forecasted registrations (in thousands) for years 4 through 12 are (round your responses to onedecimal place):YearForecast4YearForecast5465768b) Using a 3-year weighted moving average in which the registrations in the most recent year are given a weight of 2, and registrations in theother 2 years are each given a weight of 1, the forecasted registrations (in thousands) for years 4 through 12 are (round your responses toone decimal place):7981091110121112 Data collected on the yearly registrations for a Six Sigma seminar at the Quality College are shown in the following table:Year14.0YearForecast26.043 44.0 5.05Registrations (000)This exercise contains only parts a and b.a) Using a 3-year moving average, the forecasted registrations (in thousands) for years 4 through 12 are (round your responses to onedecimal place):6105 6 7 8 910.0 8.0 7.0 9.0 12.0 14.078910111115.012Db) Using a 3-year weighted moving average in which the registrations in the most recent year are given a weight of 2, and registrations in thenther 2 veare are each niven a weight of 1 the forecasted registratione (in thousande) for voare 4 through 12 are fround your roenoncos fo

Forecasting is a technique used to predict future outcomes on the basis of past data. In businesses…

Answered: a) Using a 3-year moving average, the…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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The following data are for calculator sales in units at an electronics store over the past nine weeks: Week Sales Week Sales 1 45 53 2 50 7 59 3 44 8. 59 4 51 9 64 5 57 Use trend projection with regression to forecast sales for weeks 10 - 13. What are the error measures (CFE, MSE, o, MAD, and MAPE) for this forecasting procedure? How about ? Obtain the trend projection with regression forecast for weeks 10 – 13. (Enter your responses rounded to two decimal places.) Period Forecast, F, 10 64.81 11 67.06 12 69.31 13 71.56 Obtain the error measures. (Enter your responses rounded to two decimal places.) CFE MSE MAD МАРЕ
A forecast for the first six months of the year revealed a tendency to underpredict the actual demand for the revitalized Hubig’s Pies plant in the Marigny. Month Actual Forecast January 675 600 February 720 700 March 640 620 April 510 495 May 480 410 June 565 535 What is the mean squared error of this forecast? a. 1,694 b. 1,873 c. 2,075 d. 1,469
Here are the data for the past 21 months for actual sales of a particular product: LAST YEAR THIS YEAR January 315 February 418 March 390 April 430 May 400 [ June 480 July 430 August 320 September 385 October 530 November 592 555 December 300 400 350 460 390 395 355 245 340 Develop a forecast for the fourth quarter using a three-quarter, weighted moving average. Weight the most recent quarter 0.50, the second most recent 0.25, and the third 0.25. Do the problem using quarters, as opposed to forecasting separate months. (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.) Forecast for the fourth quarter
14 Community General Hospital finds itself treating many bicycle accident victims. Data from the last seven 24-hour periods is shown below: Day Bicycle Victims 1 8 2 14 3 8 4 14 5 18 6 15 With an alpha value of 0.31 and a starting forecast in day 3 equal to the 21 , what is the exponentially smoothed forecast for day 4? (Round to two decimal places) 15 What is the exponentially smoothed forecast for day 5? (Round to two decimal places)
Given is a historical time series for job services demand in the prior 6 months. Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 Demand 799 816 789 814 815 805 The Period 6 forecast by using weighted moving average with weights of 0.05, 0.25, 0.40, and 0.30 = Blank 1 (in 2 decimal places)
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9) Gasoline sales Times Series week sales (1000s of gallons 1 17 2 21 3 19 4 23 5 18 6 16 7 20 8 18 9 22 10 20 11 15 12 22 With the above gasoline time series data, show the exponential smoothing forecast using alpha = 0.1 i)Applying the MSE measure of forecast accuracy, would you prefer a smoothing constant of Alpha= 0.1 or alpha=0.2 for the gasoline sales time series? ii)Are the results the same if you apply MAE as the measure of accuracy? iii)What are the results if MAPE is used?
Here are the actual tabulated demands for an item for a nine-month period (January through September). Your supervisor wants to test two forecasting methods to see which method was better over this period. MONTH ACTUAL January 120 February 145 March 146 April 171 May 154 June 182 July 138 August 135 September 146 a. Forecast April through September using a three-month moving average. b. Use simple exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.20 to estimate April through September, using the average of January through March as the initial forecast for April. c-1. Calculate MAD for Three-month moving average and Exponential smoothing. c-2. Use MAD to decide which method produced the better forecast over the six-month period.
Give typed explanation Part 2: Using exponential smoothing, the forecasted demand for period 5 using the smoothing constant determined in image= ?
Amazon finds that sales in July are much greater relative to other months because of the Amazon Prime days in that month. Assuming that an exponential smoothing model is used for forecasting sales, what should the company best do to make the forecast for the next month (Aug) more reflective of reality? Please pick from the provided options. F t+1 = αDt + (1-α) Ft increase value of alpha decrease value of alpha stay with the same alpha decrease the expected forecast for the current month (Ft) On hearing our forecast, our clients probe - how sure are we about the forecast? Which measure of errror (among those stated below) should we best use to respond? a. Root MSE (RMSE) b. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) c. Mean forecast error (Avg. error) d. Cumulative forecast error (CFE)
Given the following historical data, what is the simple three-period moving average forecast for period 6? Period 1 2 3 4 5 67.67 68.2 67.3 68.4 Value 73 66 64 73 66
9

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