Refer to the following payoff table: Alternative A1 A2 Prior Probability State of Nature S1 S2 -40 100 0.4 75 0 0.6 There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur. When the true state of nature is S1, the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time. When the true state of nature is S2, the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time. What is the unconditional probability that the research predicts S2?
Refer to the following payoff table: Alternative A1 A2 Prior Probability State of Nature S1 S2 -40 100 0.4 75 0 0.6 There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur. When the true state of nature is S1, the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time. When the true state of nature is S2, the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time. What is the unconditional probability that the research predicts S2?
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Section9.4: The Precision Tree Add-in
Problem 9P
Related questions
Question
![Refer to the following payoff table:
Alternative
A1
A2
Prior Probability
State of Nature
S1
S2
-40
100
0.4
75
0
0.6
There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur. When the true state of nature is S1, the
research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time. When the true state of nature is S2, the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.
What is the unconditional probability that the research predicts S2?](/v2/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcontent.bartleby.com%2Fqna-images%2Fquestion%2Fca4639e1-ad6a-4442-8c8c-fb1994ba5fd4%2Ff1407cf3-4bd0-4187-a270-68789d694398%2F3opbhz_processed.png&w=3840&q=75)
Transcribed Image Text:Refer to the following payoff table:
Alternative
A1
A2
Prior Probability
State of Nature
S1
S2
-40
100
0.4
75
0
0.6
There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur. When the true state of nature is S1, the
research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time. When the true state of nature is S2, the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time.
What is the unconditional probability that the research predicts S2?
![Multiple Choice
O
0.32
0.4
0.44
0.56
0.6](/v2/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcontent.bartleby.com%2Fqna-images%2Fquestion%2Fca4639e1-ad6a-4442-8c8c-fb1994ba5fd4%2Ff1407cf3-4bd0-4187-a270-68789d694398%2Fjrul5im_processed.png&w=3840&q=75)
Transcribed Image Text:Multiple Choice
O
0.32
0.4
0.44
0.56
0.6
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