1. Calculate the forecast using 5 forecasting techniques/methodologies/models namely: Naive Model, Unweighted and Weighted Moving Averages, Exponential Smoothing, and Time-Series Regression. 2. For each of these models, calculate the 3 forecast errors namely: Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and the Mean Squared Error (MSE). 3. For the two Moving Averages models, use x3 academic years. 4. For the Weighted Moving Averages model, use: a weight of 0.40 for the most recent data; a weight of 0.35 for the second most recent data; and a weight of 0.25 for the third most recent data. 5. For the Simple Exponential Smoothing model, use a smoothing parameter, a=0.3. 6. Determine the forecasting technique that best suits the type and nature of data that you have. Briefly explain your answer. 7. Show your solutions/answers by filling up the tables below. 8. In all your computations, consistently use zwo (2) decimal places. Follow and fill out the table below for each model: CHAD 200 A
1. Calculate the forecast using 5 forecasting techniques/methodologies/models namely: Naive Model, Unweighted and Weighted Moving Averages, Exponential Smoothing, and Time-Series Regression. 2. For each of these models, calculate the 3 forecast errors namely: Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and the Mean Squared Error (MSE). 3. For the two Moving Averages models, use x3 academic years. 4. For the Weighted Moving Averages model, use: a weight of 0.40 for the most recent data; a weight of 0.35 for the second most recent data; and a weight of 0.25 for the third most recent data. 5. For the Simple Exponential Smoothing model, use a smoothing parameter, a=0.3. 6. Determine the forecasting technique that best suits the type and nature of data that you have. Briefly explain your answer. 7. Show your solutions/answers by filling up the tables below. 8. In all your computations, consistently use zwo (2) decimal places. Follow and fill out the table below for each model: CHAD 200 A
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...
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Transcribed Image Text:Below is a table that shows the Freshmen Enrollment of the New Texas Elementary School during the 1a Semesters of the past
ten (10) Academic Years (AY),
AY
2013-2014
2014-2015
2015-2016
2016-02017
2017-2018
Freshmen Enrollees AY
200
220
235
270
315
4. For the Weighted Moving Averages model, use:
a weight of 0.40 for the most recent data;
a weight of 0.35 for the second most recent data; and
a weight of 0.25 for the third most recent data.
You are the Principal of New Texas Elementary School. You are interested to know the forecast of freshmen enrolment
for the next academic year (AY2023-2024), in order to plan ahead the necessary resources: faculty, classroom, library
holdings, physical facilities, student services, furniture and fixtures, etc.). These are the requirements:
AT
2013-2014
1. Calculate the forecast using 5 forecasting techniques/methodologies/models namely: Naïve Model, Unweighted and
Weighted Moving Averages, Exponential Smoothing, and Time-Series Regression.
Follow and fill out the table below for each model:
2015-2016
2. For each of these models, calculate the 3 forecast errors namely: Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Absolute
Percentage Error (MAPE), and the Mean Squared Error (MSE).
3. For the two Moving Averages models, use x = 3 academic years.
2016-2019
2020-2025
5. For the Simple Exponential Smoothing model, use a smoothing parameter, = 0.3.
6. Determine the forecasting technique that best suits the type and nature of data that you have. Briefly explain your
answer.
7. Show your solutions/answers by filling up the tables below.
8. In all your computations, consistently use zwo (2) decimal places.
Cases
200
270
315
420
Foto 2003-2004
2018-2019
2019-2020
R
2020-2021
2021-2022
2022-2023
Mean Abu Deviation (MAD)
Freshmen Enrollees
MA
350
375
400
420
435
Mean Square (MS)
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