Cemetery Demography Lab_F23
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Georgia Institute Of Technology *
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ECOLOGY
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Statistics
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Feb 20, 2024
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Population Ecology: Tales from the Crypt
Introduction
Life tables
are an analytical tool that population ecologists use to study survival and mortality in a population. These data can be critical in conservation efforts (such as reintroductions or pest reductions) where ecologists would like to know how well a transplanted population is doing. A life table can be constructed in two ways: a cohort life table
follows one group of individuals, born at the same time, until the death of all individuals; a time-specific life table is based upon age structure in one time period. Today, you will construct a time-specific life table by collecting data on human deaths during a specific time period. We will need to make two key assumptions in this process:
1) We will assume we are sampling each age class in proportion to its numbers in the population.
2) We will assume that the age-specific mortality rates are constant during our time period.
Population structure and growth are a result of the influence of birth rate, death rate, immigration, and emigration. Life tables present the data by calculating the age-specific mortality and survivorship of a population in order to compare populations under different conditions. However, assessing the differences between columns of data can be difficult; a preferred approach is to create survivorship curves ((
l
x
) versus time). During the last two centuries, humans have undergone marked advances in medicine & technology. How have these
changes affected mortality rates? What implications do they have for human population growth?
Population biologists look for three types of patterns in survivorship curves:
Type I
Type II
Type III
Survivorship
Age Class
Age Class
Age Class
Type I curves are observed in populations with low mortality in young age classes but very high mortality as an individual ages. Type II curves represent populations where the mortality rate is constant, regardless of age. Type III curves occur in populations with high mortality in early age classes and very low mortality in older individuals.
Populations displaying a Type III survivorship curve generally need to have high birth rates in order for the population size to remain constant. High birth rates ensure that enough offspring survive to reproduce, ensuring the population sustains itself. Populations characterized by a Type I survivorship curve often have low birth rates because most offspring survive to reproduce, and very high birth rates result in exponential population growth.
Procedure:
We will be using data collected from the historic Oakland Cemetery in southeast Atlanta (
www.oaklandcemetery.com
). This 48 acre cemetery opened in 1850 and reached maximum capacity by 1884. It continues to serve as an active cemetery as plot ownership is passed along family lines or sold back to the cemetery. The cemetery initially served as a public burial ground for the City of Atlanta, and it is home to about 7,000 Confederate and Union soldiers from the Civil War. There are several unique sections of the cemetery, including the original 6 acres, German Jewish grounds (purchases made by the Hebrew Benevolent Congregation in 1878 and 1892), and African American grounds (reflecting a policy of racial segregation in 1866). Outside of these areas, burial plots are owned at random with respect to cause of death or ethnicity.
1. In the prelab, you are asked to review the ‘LifeTableAnalysis.csv’ file and look at what raw data is available. Think about what type of question you would like to ask that involves comparing the survivorship between two groups of individuals using the data from Oakland Cemetery. You practice comparing males and females in the prelab, so you should find a new comparison. For example, you could compare those who were born between 1821-1860 vs those born 1861-1900 (i.e. before and after the Civil War). 2. Once you are in class, form groups no larger than three students (preferably groups of 2) with others that are interested in similar types of questions. Pick your two groups and distill your question down into a research hypothesis, record it, and have a TA check it before proceeding.
Remember, your hypothesis should involve comparing the survivorship of no more than two well-defined populations. 1.
Two groups being compared:
2.
Research Hypothesis:
3.
What variable or variables (column or columns in the datasheet) will you need to use?
3. Use the cemetery data to construct a life table and survivorship curves based upon your hypothesis. To do this, you will need to randomly sampling at least 75-100 unique people per group you are comparing (150-200 total). You can randomly select people from the data based on their line number. You may choose to use an online random number generator and manually generate your dataset, or use R. Your prelab activity notes should be sufficient to guide you through this step. If you failed to take good notes, repeat the prelab to record the needed code.
Stop and Think: What in the code would need to be modified for your data set? For your
specific question? What should those changes be, and how would the code look? Would it be
line edits, or might it impact the order that you do certain steps?
Once you have your line numbers, if the sampled individual fits into one of the groups that you are comparing, then collect their data. If not, generate a new number. Continue until you have
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75-100 people per group. DO NOT
use the same person twice within your sample and make sure
that you end with an equal number of people in each group (e.g., 78 males and 78 females). 4. Summarize your data by tallying the number of individuals within each 10-yr lifespan period. In other words, of your 100 people in each group, how many lived only 0-9 years, 10-19, 20-29, 30-39, etc. Do this for each group you are comparing. For example, 5 males and 10 females lived
0-9 years, etc. Record these numbers in the tables below.
5. INDIVIDUALLY use the log(Lx) data to create survivorship curves for comparing your two groups. You should generate your graph of the survivorship curve in R, using the example code provided in swirl with modifications based on your particular experiment. Record these numbers and your graph below.
6. Consider what sort of stats you should use to analyze your data. The sample R code given lets you know what type of test should be run and how to do it on your data. Focus on the biological meaning
of your results, e.g., group1 displays a different life history curve from group 2. Record your results below.
Please fill in the following tables based on your hypotheses and randomly-generated subset of
data. Use the example provided to calculate your numbers. You may also choose to code these
in R.
Variables of Note:
x: This is the time-specific interval. We refer to each interval by the first value listed, e.g. "0-5" is the x=0 time interval.
Obs #: This is the raw data for d
x
, the number of deaths that occur in time x. Count these in your data.
n
x
: This is the number of individuals alive at the beginning of each time x. We derive this by summing all individuals observed in our dataset (we make an assumption here that the frequency of individuals in each time interval approximates the lifespan).
l
x
: This is the cumulative survival probability, n
x
/n
0
, after scaling to a per 1000 basis (standard for life table analysis to facilitate comparisons between datasets)
d
x
: This is the number of deaths which occur in time x, after scaling to a per 1000 basis.
S
x
: This is the proportion of individuals who survive to the next time interval, n
x+1
/n
x
q
x
: The is the probability of death in age class x, d
x
/n
x
log (l
x
): This is the log
10
of the l
x
values.
Ex. Human Life Table
Time (yr)
Obs # deaths in the time interval
Obs # Alive at
Start
Survivorship
# Surviving
Surv. Rate
For Graph
x
(counts)
n
x
l
x
L
x
S
x
log(L
x
)
0-9
1
115
1.00
1000
0.99
3.00
10-19
0
114
0.99
991
1.00
3.00
20-29
10
114
0.99
991
0.91
3.00
30-39
5
104
0.90
904
0.95
2.96
40-49
2
99
0.86
860
0.98
2.93
50-59
14
97
0.84
843
0.86
2.93
60-69
35
83
0.72
721
0.58
2.86
70-79
25
48
0.42
417
0.48
2.62
80-89
20
23
0.20
200
0.13
2.30
90-99
2
3
0.03
26
0.33
1.41
100-109
1
1
0.01
8
0.00
0.90
Group 1: _________________________
Human Life Table 1
Time (yr)
Obs # deaths in the time interval
Obs # Alive at Start
Survivorship
# Surviving
Surv. Rate
For Graph
x
(counts)
n
x
l
x
L
x
S
x
log(L
x
)
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100-109
Group 2: _________________________
Human Life Table 2
Time (yr)
Obs # deaths in the time interval
Obs # Alive at Start
Survivorship
# Surviving
Surv. Rate
For Graph
x
(counts)
n
x
l
x
L
x
S
x
log(L
x
)
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100-109
Graph:
Statistical Analyses: Pearson’s Chi-squared works best on larger datasets with approximately normal distribution, hence why the example code gives an error message when performing calculations with our small dataset. When samples are small, like ours, a very similar test, called a Log likelihood ratio (G-test) test of independence, is more appropriate. Run both tests, and comment on the results. Are both significant (or not)? Without the R-generated error alerting you to the possibility of a better test choice, what errors in your experimental
conclusions might you likely make in using Excel?
Results from the appropriate test:
1.
Name of the Statistical Test:
2.
Statistical Null Hypothesis of the Test:
3.
Statistical Alternate Hypothesis of the Test:
4.
Values from the test you ran:
When you submit your worksheet, you must also submit your code as a .r file. We will not grade your submission without runnable code
.
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You should prepare a lab report RESULTS subsection using your cemetery data analysis. References Vodopich, D.S. 2010. Ecology Laboratory Manual
. McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. NY, NY
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