Howell 9e_TBChapter 7

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Chapter 7—Basic Concepts of Probability MULTIPLE CHOICE QUESTIONS 7.1 Which of the following is NOT an appropriate use of probability? a) estimating the likelihood that a particular event will occur b) calculating your chances of winning the lottery c) placing bets at the track d) *knowing what event will happen next 7.2 + Where is “subjective probability” most likely to be invoked? a) in setting the point spread in football b) *in deciding if tomorrow will be a good day c) in calculating your best strategy in poker d) in playing Russian roulette 7.3 + A frequentistic approach to probability is likely to be invoked a) in predicting the weather. b) in calculating the chances of winning in craps. c) *in estimating the probability that a sharpshooter will score a bull’s eye. d) in blackjack. 7.4 Which of the following is NOT a way of setting probabilities? a) the analytic view b) the frequentistic view c) the subjective view d) *the correlational view 7.5 Of 50 women treated for breast cancer in the local cancer unit, 35 of them survived for at least 5 years. For a woman who has just been diagnosed with breast cancer, our best guess is that the probability that she will survive for 5 years is a) *35/50 = .70 b) 15/35= .43 c) 35/100 = .35 d) we don’t have enough information. 7.6 + Out of a pool of 40 men and 10 women, all of whom are equally qualified for one position as an instructor in chemistry, the person hired was a male. The probability that this would happen if the department ignored gender as a variable in selection is a) .40 b) *.80 c) .50 d) .63
Test Bank 7.7 Last year there were 300 new Ph.D.s in chemistry looking for academic jobs. Of those, 100 were women and 200 were men. Nationwide last year there were 75 new hirings in chemistry departments. How many of those new hires would be expected to be women if there was no gender discrimination? a) 15 b) 20 c) *25 d) 50 7.8 Following up on the preceding question, suppose that you found that 27 of the new hires were women. You would probably be justified in concluding that a) there was discrimination against men. b) there was discrimination against women. c) *there was no discrimination on the basis of gender. d) we don’t have enough information to even start to answer the question. 7.9 + I am looking down on a parking lot, and can see that about 10% of the cars are red and about 15% of the cars are blue. To estimate the probability that the next car to leave the lot will be red or blue, I would a) *add those two percentages. b) multiply those two percentages. c) count the number of green cars. d) It can’t be estimated from the information provided. 7.10 In the parking lot below me, 40% of the vehicles are silver, and about 25% of the vehicles are pickup trucks. The probability that the next vehicle to leave the parking lot will be a silver pickup is a) .40 b) .65 c) .10 d) *It can’t be estimated without knowing that color and type of vehicle are independent. 7.11 To estimate that probability that the next vehicle to leave the parking lot will be a silver pickup, we first need to a) assume that the color and the type of vehicle are mutually exclusive. b) *assume that the color and the type of vehicle are independent. c) assume that the color and the type of vehicle are exhaustive. d) simply multiply the two probabilities. 7.12 + Two events are mutually exclusive when a) the occurrence of one event is independent of the occurrence of the other. b) *the occurrence of one event precludes the occurrence of the other. c) both events are equally likely. d) the first event precedes the second event. 251
Chapter 7 7.13 An exhaustive set of events is one which a) we can never estimate. b) *contains all possible outcomes. c) contains only independent events. d) comes from running a very long series of sampling studies. 7.14 When we want to calculate the probability of the joint occurrence of two or more independent events, we invoke a) *the multiplicative rule. b) the additive rule. c) the sum of independent probabilities. d) Bernoulli’s rule. 7.15 + Using an example from the text, when we calculate the probability that a supermarket flier will be left among the canned goods if it contains a notice not to litter, we will be dealing with a) the additive rule. b) the superlative rule. c) the dependence rule. d) *conditional probabilities. 7.16 + Using the example from the text about the supermarket fliers, when we calculate the probability that a flier will be left either among the canned goods or in the bottom of the shopping cart, we need to invoke a) *the additive rule. b) the superlative rule. c) the dependence rule. d) the multiplicative rule. 7.17 Once again using the example about supermarket fliers, we would have evidence that the “don’t litter” message on the flier was effective if we found that a) *the probability of finding a flier with the message in the trash can was substantially higher than the probability calculated on the assumption that the two events were independent. b) the probability of finding a flier with the message in the trash can was substantially lower than the probability calculated on the assumption that the two events were independent. c) the probability of finding a flier with the message in the trash can was the same as the probability calculated on the assumption that the two events were independent. d) We can’t tell from the information available. 252
Test Bank 7.18 One difference between the additive and the multiplicative rules that helps us remember when to use which is a) with the additive rule we are talking about the occurrence of one of several outcomes. b) with the multiplicative rule we are talking about the occurrence of more than one kind of outcome. c) the two rules are interchangeable. d) *both a and b 7.19 + If I am interested in the probability that you will be depressed and that you will have experienced a great deal of stress in the past month, I am talking about a) independence. b) *a joint probability. c) a conditional probability. d) an additive probability. 7.20 If I am interested in the probability that you will be depressed if you have experienced a great deal of stress in the past month, I am talking about a) independence. b) a joint probability. c) *a conditional probability. d) an additive probability. 7.21 When we are talking about joint probabilities we are likely to invoke a) *the multiplicative rule. b) the additive rule. c) the subjective probability rule. d) the law of joint probabilities. 7.22 The vertical bar “|” is read as _______ when we are talking about probabilities. a) “absolute” b) “not” c) “divide” d) *“given” 7.23 + I would like to calculate the probability that you will do well in this course if you are a member of a group of students who study together. The most important word in that last sentence is a) *“if.” b) “calculate.” c) “I.” d) “study.” 253
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