PSY 6920 Week 9 D 2 Actuarial Instruments

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Capella University *

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6920

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Psychology

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Oct 30, 2023

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2

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In today’s forensic psychology, there are two different standardized methodological approaches to risk assessment: 1. Actuarial Risk Assessment 2. Structured Professional Judgement Actuarial Risk Assessment Instruments (ARAI) include fundamental characteristics that: 1. All risk factors are empirically validated and combined into a total score based on an a priori fixed algorithm for combining the individual risk factors 2. The total score can be linked to different kinds of empirically derived risk communication procedures: a. Absolute (observed and/or calculated probabilities of recidivism risk for different risk categories or total scores b. Relative risk indices (risk ratios, odds ratios, or percentile ranks) (Rettenberger et al., 2017) Actuarial assessments have demonstrated not only that they clinically outperform clinical judgement alone, but that in regards to the risk of sexual reoffending, actuarial assessments demonstrate such a high level of statistically significant levels of predictive accuracy. Actuarial assessments measures function by placing individual offenders into groups with known reconviction rates, therefore the outcome is that the individual risk estimates are based off of observed group outcomes LSI-R – Level of Service Inventory – Revised (General Offending) Population: Male and Female Offenders Strengths: Adequate validity results SONAR - The Sex Offender Need Assessment Rating Population: Sex Offenders Strengths: Measures dynamic risk factors empirically related to rates of sexual recidivism; allows clinicians to evaluate changes in dynamic risk factors over time. COVR – Classification of Violence Risk (General Violence) Population: Adult Psychiatric Patients MnSOST-R – Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (Sexual Reoffending Population: Incarcerated Male Sex Offenders VRAG – Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (Violent Reoffending) Population: Adult Offenders and Forensic Patients Strengths: Adequate validity results SORAG – Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (Violent Sexual Recidivism) Assesses violent recidivism risk that includes sexual offenses involving physical contact with the victim
Population: Incarcerated Male Sex Offenders Strengths: Most commonly used and best validated actuarial risk assessment Limitations: Varying performance for sexual offender sub-groups; caution must be taken when the test is used in other countries or jurisdictions; only one recidivism data source available; when comparing absolute recidivism rates across studies, follow-up periods must be adjusted due to the different outcome criteria of charges vs. convictions. Static-99R (Sexual Reoffending) Population: Sex Offenders Strengths: Most empirical support Limitations: Does not address all relevant risk factors for sex offenders. Limitations of actuarial measures : The use of actuarial measures as a standalone proves as insufficient for comprehensive risk assessments due to the inability to address multiple facts such as treatment planning, treatment evaluations, parole evaluations etc.) Due to the nature of actuarial measures being static and unchanging, this disallows for assessment of changes in risk over a period of time (Vess et al., 2008). References: Kroner, D. G., Mills, J. F., Reitzel, L. R., Dow, E., Aufderheide, D. H., & Railey, M. G. (2007). Directions for violence and sexual risk assessment in correctional psychology. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 34 (7), 906-918. https://doi.org/10.1177/0093854807301559 Melton, G. B., Petrila, J., Poythress, N. G., Slobogin, C., Otto, R. K., Mossman, D., & Condie, L. O. (2017). Psychological evaluations for the courts, fourth edition: A handbook for mental health professionals and lawyers . Guilford Publications. Rettenberger, M., Rice, M. E., Harris, G. T., & Eher, R. (2017). Actuarial risk assessment of sexual offenders: The psychometric properties of the sex offender risk appraisal guide r(SORAG). Psychological Assessment, 29 (6), 624-638. https://doi.org/10.1037/pas0000390 Vess, J., Ward, T., & Collie, R. (2008). case formulation with sex offenders: An illustration of individualized risk assessment. The Journal of Behavior Analysis of Offender and Victim Treatment and Prevention, 1 (3), 284-293. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0100450
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