Strangelove.fall.23

POLS 200 Methods of Political Science Fall 2023 R. H. Bruhl An Exercise in Strategic Analysis (10 points) Due 11/20/23 The movie “Dr. Strangelove” presents a particularly interesting case of strategic decision- making. We will watch the movie in class and you are then tasked with completing the following analytical exercise. As a memory refresher, the movie may be viewed online at archive.org/details/DRStrangelove_20130616. To properly understand a decision-making problem, it is important to understand the context in which it occurs. Although the events in the movie are fictional, the underlying political and historical context are not, and it is important to understand the relationship between the United States and Soviet Union at the time portrayed in this movie. It was a relationship of war. It was said to be a “Cold War” because no actual battles took place between the two countries, but much military action occurred between proxy agents of the two countries. Consequently, both countries recognized the potential for direct military confrontation and were appropriately prepared. Given this context, the movie begins with a high-level Air Force officer (General Jack Ripper) giving orders to the nuclear weapon-carrying bombers under his command to launch a nuclear strike against the Soviet Union. While US policy strictly requires such an order to originate only with the President, a provision in the military chain of command allows a military commander to issue the nuclear strike command if the President and his or her proper successors have been killed by an enemy attack. This was not the case, however, and no attack of any kind had been launched, nor was any attack immanent. General Ripper, in fact, had issued the command under his own authority. Moreover, the aircraft under his command already on patrol near the Soviet Union were already at their so-called “Fail-Safe” positions, so the pilots had no way of independently determining the legitimacy of General Ripper’s order. Consequently, they honestly believed the US to have been attacked and honestly followed their given orders. The US Strategic Air Command (SAC), of course, monitors all radio activity among and between the bases and their aircraft, and General Ripper’s orders were immediately discovered. However, because the nuclear attack orders require the receiving aircraft to switch their communication systems to a key-coded modality for obvious security reasons, the SAC personnel could not rescind General Ripper’s orders. Moreover, General Ripper had sequestered himself in his base using his security forces. Those security forces had been also been led to believe by General Ripper that the US had sustained an attack and invasion by the Soviet Union, so they could be expected to fight 1

to the death. As time was of the essence, it became clear to SAC personnel there was little reason to believe the aircraft could be recalled. Immediately apprised of this situation, the President considered the only three options he had: 1) launch a full attack on the Soviet Union; 2) help the Soviet Union shoot-down the US aircraft before they reached their targets; or 3) do nothing. In making his considerations, he also knew the Soviet Union could do any one of the three things: 1) launch a full counter-attack; 2) honestly accept the help of the US and not launch any counter-attack; or 3) do nothing. These considerations can be seen in the following “strategic analysis” matrix: US Options Soviet Union counter-attacks Soviet Union accepts help Soviet Union Does nothing Worst case US outcome Full attack The U.S wins and 20 million dead Not Applicable The U.S wins and Soviet Union loses 20 million or less dead and the U.S wins Help Soviet Union shoot- down US bombers The United States loses because it allows the Soviet Union to shoot down its own bombers. In order to preserve lives, the US and the USSR cooperate with one another rather than wage war on one another, which creates no winners or losers. The United States loses because it assisted the Soviet Union in downing its own bombers. The U.S is defeated, and at least 20 million people dead. 2

This assignment is due 11/20/23. It should be submitted electronically through Blackboard. If you type your answers, you may send the edited Word document. If you handwrite your answers, you must scan the document as a pdf file and submit the pdf. DO NOT SEND YOUR DOCUMENT AS A PICTURE. DUE TO THE NATURE OF THIS ASSIGNMENT, RE-SUBMISSIONS FOR RE- GRADING WILL NOT BE ACCEPTED. 4