PHIL 2505 Unit 3 AS1 - Practice Understanding and Evaluating Abductive Arguments
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Seven Explanatory Virtues
1. Explanatoriness
: Explanations must explain all the observed facts.
2. Depth
: Explanations should not raise more questions than they answer.
3. Power
: Explanations should apply in a range of similar contexts, not just the current situation in which the explanation is being offered.
4. Falsifiability
: Explanations should be falsifiable—it must be possible for there to be evidence that would show that the explanation is incorrect.
5. Modesty
: Explanations should not claim any more than is needed to explain the observed facts. Any details in the explanation must relate to explaining one of the observed facts.
6. Simplicity
: Explanations that posit fewer entities or processes are preferable to explanations that posit more entities or processes. All other things being equal, the simplest explanation is the best. This is sometimes referred to as “
Ockham’s razor
” after William of Ockham (1287-1347), the medieval philosopher and logician.
7. Conservativeness
: Explanations that force us to give up fewer well-established beliefs are better than explanations that force us to give up more well-established beliefs.
SAMPLE: Bob explains the fact that he can’t remember what happened yesterday by saying that he must have been kidnapped by aliens, who performed surgery on him and then erased his memory of everything that happened the day before returning him to his house.
Is this the best explanation? (yes or no)
: no
Why or why not? (reference at least one explanatory virtue)
: This explanation is not simple
. It posits the existence of aliens, which we’re not sure actually exist. It also lacks depth
by raising more questions than it answers. How do we know aliens exist?
More plausible explanations (if this argument is bad)
: Bob may have suffered temporary amnesia from a concussion, or gotten black-out drunk. 1.
Mrs. Jones hears strange noises at night such as the creaking of the floor downstairs and rattling of windows. She explains these phenomena by hypothesizing that there is a 37-pound badger that inhabits the house and that emerges at night in search of Wheat Thins and Oreos.
Is this the best explanation? (yes or no)
: No
Why or why not? (reference at least one explanatory virtue)
: Simplicity – Does a 37-
pound badger inhabit the house? Depth – Where does the badger stay? Why does it eat Wheat Thins and Oreos?
More plausible explanations (if this argument is bad)
: The creaking and rattling sounds are likely caused by windy weather.
2.
Edward saw his friend Tom at the store in their hometown of Lincoln, Nebraska just an hour ago. Then, while watching the World Cup on television,
he saw someone that looked just like Tom in the crowd at the game in Brazil. He hypothesizes that his friend Tom must have an identical twin that Tom has never told him about.
Is this the best explanation? (yes or no)
: No
PHIL 2505 | UNIT 3 AS1 | PRACTICE WITH ABDUCTIVE ARGUMENTS 2
Why or why not? (reference at least one explanatory virtue)
: Simplicity – Edward and Tom are from the same hometown, so how could Tom have a secret twin brother without Edward knowing? More plausible explanations (if this argument is bad)
: There are many individuals who look similar, and that person on TV could have looked similar to Tom.
3.
Edward’s friend Tom died two years ago. But just yesterday Tom saw someone who looked and spoke exactly like Tom. Edward hypothesizes that Tom must have come back to life.
Is this the best explanation? (yes or no)
: No
Why or why not? (reference at least one explanatory virtue)
: Depth – The possible resurrection of Tom raises more questions than it answers.
More plausible explanations (if this argument is bad)
: That individual looked similar to Tom and Edward, and then thinking of his friend, believed this stranger also spoke like Tom.
4.
Edward’s friend Tom died twenty years ago when Tom was just 18. But just yesterday Edward saw someone who looked and spoke exactly like Tom. Edward hypothesizes that Tom must have had a son that he did not know about and that this person must have been Tom’s son.
Is this the best explanation? (yes or no)
: No
Why or why not? (reference at least one explanatory virtue)
: Modesty – Claims that Tom had a secret/unknown son.
More plausible explanations (if this argument is bad)
: The stranger may be an extended family member of Tom’s or just a stranger who looks/sounds similar to Tom.
5.
Elise has the uncanny feeling that although her family members look exactly the same, something just isn’t right about them. She hypothesizes that her family members have been replaced with imposters who look and act exactly like her real family members and that no one can prove that this happened.
Is this the best explanation? (yes or no)
: No
Why or why not? (reference at least one explanatory virtue)
: Falsifiability – With Elise’s reasoning there is a possiblity for there to be evidence that would show that her family members are real
More plausible explanations (if this argument is bad)
: Elise has Dementia, Alzheimer’s, or Capgras Syndrome.
6.
John thinks that since something cannot come from nothing and since we know there was a Big Bang, an all-powerful but invisible and undetectable being must have been the cause of the Big Bang.
Is this the best explanation? (yes or no)
: Why or why not? (reference at least one explanatory virtue)
: Falsifiability - There is no possibility for there to be evidence that would show John’s explanation is incorrect.
More plausible explanations (if this argument is bad)
: John is religious and does not want to explore the topic scientifically.
PHIL 2505 | UNIT 3 AS1 | PRACTICE WITH ABDUCTIVE ARGUMENTS 3
7.
Erin feels that she is being followed. Every time she looks over her shoulder, she sees someone duck behind an object to avoid being seen. She hypothesizes that it must be her 5th grade teacher, Mr. Sanchez.
Is this the best explanation? (yes or no)
: No
Why or why not? (reference at least one explanatory virtue)
: Modesty - Any details in the explanation must relate to explaining one of the observed facts, and Erin has no reason to think it’s her 5th-grade teacher following her.
More plausible explanations (if this argument is bad)
: It is more likely that the person following Erin is a stranger, a stalker, or some other criminal.
8.
While walking through the forest at night, Claudia hears some rustling in the bushes. It is clear to her that it isn’t just the wind, because she can hear sticks cracking on the ground. She hypothesizes that it must be an escaped zoo animal.
Is this the best explanation? (yes or no)
: No
Why or why not? (reference at least one explanatory virtue)
: Modesty - Any details in the explanation must relate to explaining one of the observed facts, and Claudia has no reason to believe that a zoo animal has escaped.
More plausible explanations (if this argument is bad)
: It is more likely that the rustling and cracking of the sticks on the ground are due to a nocturnal native animal of the forest, such as a raccoon or opossum.
9.
While driving on the freeway, Bill sees the flashing lights of a cop car in his rear view mirror. He hypothesizes that the cops must have finally found out about the library book that he never returned when he was in fifth grade and are coming to get him.
Is this the best explanation? (yes or no)
: No
Why or why not? (reference at least one explanatory virtue) Simplicity - All other things being equal, the simplest explanation is the best, and an unreturned 5th-
grade library book is not a reason for cops to come for Bill.
More plausible explanations (if this argument is bad)
: It is more likely that Bill was speeding, the cops are after some other driver, or the cops are responding to a separate event.
10.
While driving on the freeway, Bill sees the flashing lights of a cop car in his rear view mirror. He hypothesizes that the cops are going to pull someone
over for speeding.
Is this the best explanation? (yes or no)
: Yes
Why or why not? (reference at least one explanatory virtue)
: Simplicity - All other things being equal, the simplest explanation is the best, and a cop pulling someone over for speeding is the simplest explanation.
More plausible explanations (if this argument is bad)
:
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