INTL498 - Midterm - Critical IC Issues - Patterson, Megan
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Feb 20, 2024
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Most Pressing Issues Facing the IC in the Next Five Years
Megan Patterson
Senior Seminar
Course number: INTL498
29 January, 2023
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Introduction
Marine Corps Document 7-17 “Investigative Plan”
Networking Foundation
AN) is best realized in what the world currently knows as the Internet (Tanenbaum and Wetherall 2013).
Software Vulnerabilities
As computer networks and the Internet have evolved over the decades, vulnerabilities have been exposed and
Conclusion
As networked communications are advanced and expanded across the globe, convenience, References
Headquarters, Department of the Army. 2006. "FM: 2-22.3: Human Intelligence Collector Operations." https://armypubs.army.mil/epubs/DR_pubs/DR_a/pdf/web/ fm2_22x3.pdf Headquarters United States Marine Corps. “MCWP 2-6: Counterintelligence.” United States Marine Corps, 5 September 2000. https://www.iimef.marines.mil/Portals/1/ documents/2nd-Intel/Recruiting/MCWP%202-6%20Counterintelligence.pdf
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Hoffman, Christopher D. 2005. “Investigative Interviewing: Strategies and Techniques.” International Foundation for Protection Officers. August 2005. https://ifpo.org/wp-
content/uploads/2013/08/interviewing.pdf In your opinion, what is the single most pressing and underappreciated problem facing the
intelligence community over the next five years?
We need to describe the 15 most pressing problems.
Define each problem with a short paragraph
Then, do a pair-wise (expert judgment evaluation) to order them into priority from top to bottom.
The first 3 pages must include the presentation of the highest priority problem & defense to that judgment by using facts, examples, reasoning, and logic.
Following the first 3 pages, we should add the rest 14 problems in descending priority order.
Each problem should be explained in one short paragraph and justification why it is a
higher priority than the next problem. The 14 problems should not take more than 4 pages.
You must provide proof that you performed the pair-wise comparison in your texts.
Links to learn more about pair-wise comparisons:
https://study.com/academy/lesson/the-pairwise-comparison-method-in-elections.html
https://www.1000minds.com/decision-making/pairwise-comparison
https://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_02.htm
#1 National Security Strategy (NSS)
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Link: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Biden
-Harris-Administrations-National-Security-Strategy-10.2022.pdf
Purpose: The NSS addresses current and future challenges to the U.S., including Great Power Competition (
GPC), Diplomacy, civil/military realms, allocation of resources, technology/cyber realm, and much more!
#2 National Defense Strategy (NDS)
Link: https://media.defense.gov/2022/Oct/27/2003103845/-1/-
1/1/2022-NATIONAL-DEFENSE-STRATEGY-NPR-MDR.PDF
Purpose: The NDS is a successor to the NSS, in which the NDS addresses the U.S. government's posture and strategies to tackle many of the challenges presented in the NSS. Current and future challenges to the U.S. include GPC, nuclear posture, cybersecurity, missile defense, and integration with partners and allies (i.e., NATO).
#3 National Intelligence Strategy (NIS)
Link: https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/National_Intelligence
_Strategy_2019.pdf
Purpose:
The NIS looks closer at the IC's specific roles, challenges, and goals for national security. Current and future challenges include evolving cyber/technological threats, the extreme volume of data, traditional adversaries, VEOs, WMDs, and globalization.
#4 National Intelligence Assessments & Estimates (NIA/NIE)
Link: https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/reports-
publications/reports-publications-2022
Purpose:
Click through the publication years, and you may find various unique topics relevant to the IC's problems, such as
health concerns, economic issues, and U.S. interests abroad. #5 Annual Threat Assessment (ATA)
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Link:
https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/reports-
publications/reports-publications-2022/item/2279-2022-annual-
threat-assessment-of-the-u-s-intelligence-community
.
Purpose:
Similar concerns to those listed within the NIS. The DNI's ATA provides the reader with a status update and what the wider IC predicts to occur well into the future.
#6 National Drug Control Strategy (NDCS)
Link:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Natio
nal-Drug-Control-2022Strategy.pdf
Purpose:
This national strategy identifies the problems presented by drug trafficking and other various illicit drug activities and means to counter said issues.
#7 DOJ/DEA's National Drug Threat Assessment (NDTA)
Link:
https://www.dea.gov/sites/default/files/2021-02/DIR-008-
21%202020%20National%20Drug%20Threat
%20Assessment_WEB.pdf
Purpose:
Provides a fantastic overview of the illicit drug trafficking problem across the entire continental U.S. and an assessment #8 National CI Strategy 2020-2022
Link:
https://www.dni.gov/files/NCSC/documents/features/20200205-
National_CI_Strategy_2020_2022.pdf
Purpose:
This DNI strategy list strategic objectives concerning the impact foreign intelligence entities (FIE) have on U.S. national security, interests, infrastructure, economy, supply chains, and much more.
#9 National Cyber Strategy (NCS) 2020-2022
Link:
https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018
/09/National-Cyber-Strategy.pdf
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Purpose:
Identify the global operating environment impacting U.S. national security and interests globally. Information security, cybercrime, critical infrastructure, and cyber stability are just a few of the issues raised within the NCS.
#10 Intelligence Community (IC) Legal Reference Book 2020 (referenced in week one)
Link:
https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/OGC/IC%20Legal
%20Reference%20Book%202020.pdf
Threats to Supply Chain
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“Reduce threats to key U.S. supply chains to prevent foreign attempts to compromise the integrity, trustworthiness, and authenticity of products and services purchased and integrated into the operations of the U.S. government, the Defense Industrial Base, and the private sector.”
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“The exploitation of key supply chains by foreign adversaries—especially when executed in concert with cyber intrusions and insider threat activities—represents a complex and growing threat to strategically important U.S. economic sectors and critical infrastructure. Foreign adversaries are attempting to access our nation’s key supply chains at multiple points—from concept to design, manufacture, integration, deployment, and maintenance—by inserting malware into important information technology networks and communications systems.”
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“The increasing reliance on foreign-owned or controlled hardware, software, or services as well as the proliferation of networking technologies, including those associated with the Internet of Things, creates
vulnerabilities in our nation’s supply chains. By exploiting these vulnerabilities, foreign adversaries could compromise the integrity, trustworthiness, and authenticity of products and services that underpin government and American industry, or even subvert and disrupt critical networks and systems, operations, products, and weapons platforms in a time of crisis. We must elevate the role of supply chain security in the acquisition process.” (National Counterintelligence Strategy 2020-2022)
Smart Materials/Nanotechnology
AI-Enabled C4ISR
Autonomous Vehicles
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“One of the most significant, ongoing trends in new military technology and weaponry is the growing combination of high speed, long range, greater maneuverability, and pinpoint accuracy. Many technologies previously available only to the advanced, industrial nations are trickling down to smaller and less expensive systems thereby becoming more available worldwide, as seen in recent battlefield use of UAVs by Azerbaijan and Ethiopia.” (Annual Threat Assessment 2021)
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“We are in the midst of a rapid expansion of state and non-state use of unmanned vehicles in both the air and sea domains, which could disrupt the status quo in part because air and naval defense often hinge on the assumption that the primary threat stems from a relatively small number of crewed platforms or ground-based missiles.” (Annual Threat Assessment 2021)
Offensive Space Capabilities
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“Counterspace operations will be integral to potential military campaigns by the PLA, and China has counterspace weapons capabilities intended to target U.S. and allied satellites. The PLA is fielding new
destructive and nondestructive ground- and space-based antisatellite (ASAT) weapons.” (Annual Threat Assessment 2021)
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“Russia continues to train its military space elements and field new antisatellite weapons to disrupt and degrade U.S. and allied space capabilities, and it is developing, testing, and fielding an array of nondestructive and destructive counterspace weapons—including jamming and cyberspace capabilities,
directed energy weapons, on orbit capabilities, and ground-based ASAT capabilities—to target U.S. and allied satellites. Russia is investing in electronic warfare and directed energy weapons to counter western on-orbit assets. These systems work by disrupting or disabling adversary C4ISR capabilities
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and by disrupting GPS, tactical and satellite communications, and radars.” (Annual Threat Assessment 2021)
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“No longer a solely U.S. domain, the democratization of space poses significant challenges for the United States and the IC. Adversaries are increasing their presence in this domain with plans to reach or exceed parity in some areas. For example, Russia and China will continue to pursue a full range of anti-satellite weapons as a means to reduce U.S. military effectiveness and overall security. Increasing commercialization of space now provides capabilities that were once limited to global powers to anyone that can afford to buy them. Many aspects of modern society—to include our ability to conduct military operations—rely on our access to and equipment in space.” (National Intelligence Strategy 2019)
Chinese Economic Espionage
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“Counter the exploitation of the U.S. economy to protect America’s competitive advantage in world markets and our technological leadership, and to ensure our economic prosperity and security.” -
“Many countries target the United States because it is a global center for high-technology research, technology and innovation. Foreign intelligence entities have embedded themselves into U.S. national labs, academic institutions, and industries that form America’s national innovation base. They have done this to acquire information and technology that is critical to the growth and vitality of the U.S. economy. Adversaries use front companies, joint ventures, mergers and acquisitions, foreign direct investment, and talent recruitment programs to gain access to and exploit U.S. technology and intellectual property. They also influence and exploit U.S. economic and fiscal policies and trade relationships.”
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“These activities have cost the United States hundreds of billions of dollars. The theft of our most sensitive technologies, research and intellectual property harms U.S. economic, technological, and military advantage in the world. It puts at risk U.S. innovation and the competitiveness of American companies in world markets.” (National Counterintelligence Strategy 2020-2022)
“Q-Day”
Expanding Smart/Safe Cities
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Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Unelected Global Power Brokers
Climate Change
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“No longer a solely U.S. domain, the democratization of space poses significant challenges for the United States and the IC. Adversaries are increasing their presence in this domain with plans to reach or exceed parity in some areas. For example, Russia and China will continue to pursue a full range of anti-satellite weapons as a means to reduce U.S. military effectiveness and overall security. Increasing commercialization of space now provides capabilities that were once limited to global powers to anyone that can afford to buy them. Many aspects of modern society—to include our ability to conduct military operations—rely on our access to and equipment in space.” (National Defense Strategy 2022)
Biological Warfare
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“Global shortcomings in preparedness for the pandemic and questions surrounding the origins of the COVID-19 virus and biosecurity may inspire some adversaries to consider options related to biological
weapons developments. Rapid advances in dual-use technology, including bioinformatics, synthetic biology, and genomic editing, could enable development of novel biological weapons that complicate detection, attribution, and treatment.” (Annual Threat Assessment 2021)
Taliban Rule in Afghanistan
Expanding Iranian Nuclear Programs
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“If Tehran does not receive sanctions relief, Iranian officials probably will consider further enriching uranium up to 90 percent. Iran continues to increase the size and enrichment level of its uranium stockpile beyond JCPOA limits. Iran continues to ignore restrictions on advanced centrifuge research and development and continues uranium enrichment operations at the deeply buried Fordow facility” (Annual Threat Assessment 2021)
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Pandemics/Infectious Diseases
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“Countries globally remain vulnerable to the emergence of a novel pathogen that could cause a devastating new pandemic. Drivers for disease emergence persist and are on the rise, including deforestation and other human encroachment into unsettled land, wildlife harvesting and trade, livestock production, and climate change. These drivers are compounded by factors that facilitate global spread, such as international travel and trade, inadequate global disease surveillance and control,
distrust of public health authorities, health disinformation, and health system strain brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. Emerging agricultural diseases—even those that do not harm humans directly—
threaten to cause immense economic damage and disruption to food supplies if they spread globally or into new regions.” (Annual Threat Assessment 2021)
Resurgence of ISIS
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ISIS has regrouped and will continue to reorganize for prolonged insurgency capabilities as long as local governments are unable to sustain counterterrorism operations, ultimately providing ISIS an influential space. Despite waning public support of the organization, ISIS’s ideology will very likely endure and the group’s ability to conduct attacks globally will remain an intelligence and operational challenge. ---Conflicting interests in the region (Russia, Iran, China) and various influences dividing concerted efforts to defeat ISIS. U.S. withdrawal leaves a potential power vacuum/lack of priority efforts---
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“In the Middle East and North Africa, Moscow is using its involvement in Syria, Libya, and Sudan to increase its clout, undercut U.S. leadership, present itself as an indispensable mediator, and gain military access rights and economic opportunities.” (Annual Threat Assessment 2021)