FIN550- Cost of Capital discussion
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UPS / Integrated Freight & Logistics
For this discussion board, I have selected UPS. United Parcel Service, Inc., is a package delivery company that provides transportation, delivery, distribution, contract logistics, ocean freight, airfreight, customs brokerage, and insurance services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package, and International Package. Their total revenue in 2022 was $100.3 billion.
The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to
all its security holders to finance its assets, it is also commonly referred to as the firm's cost of capital. A company's assets are financed by debt and equity. WACC is the average of the costs of these sources of financing, each of which is weighed by its respective use in the given situation. By taking a weighted average, we can see how much interest the company must pay for every dollar it finances. Gurufocus uses the following WACC formula and information to calculate WACC for UPS. WACC = E / (E + D) * Cost of Equity + D / (E + D) * Cost of Debt * (1 – Tax Rate)
UPS’s Market Cap (E) = $131,431.482 million The total book value of debt (D) = $24,524.5 million Weight of equity = E / (E+D) = 0.8427
Weight of debt = D / (E + D) = 0.1573
Cost of Equity = Risk-Free Rate of Return + Beta of Asset * (Expected Return of the Market - Risk-Free Rate of Return)
The current risk-free rate is 4.93900000% UPS’s beta is 1.17.
GuruFocus requires market premium to be 6%
Cost of Equity = 4.93900000% + 1.17 * 6% = 11.959%
GuruFocus used last fiscal year end Interest Expense divided by the latest two-year average debt to get the simplified cost of debt.
As of Dec. 2022, United Parcel Service's interest expense (positive number) was $704 Mil. Its total Book Value of Debt (D) is $24524.5 Mil.
Cost of Debt = 704 / 24524.5 = 2.8706%.
The latest Two-year Average Tax Rate is 22.215%.
WACC
=
E / (E + D)
*
Cost of Equity
+
D / (E + D)
*
Cost of Debt
*
(1 - Tax Rate)
=
0.8427
*
11.959%
+
0.1573
*
2.8706%
*
(1 - 22.215%)
=
10.43%
UPS’s WACC is 10.43 % and its ROIC % is 16.77%. United Parcel Service generates higher returns on investment than it costs the company to raise the capital needed for that investment. It is earning excess returns. A firm that expects to continue generating positive excess returns on new investments in the future will see its value increase as growth increases.
According to the UPS official site, some of the
risks that the company and industry are facing in the current economic and political environment
are mainly due to the conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, as well as the increase in interest rates. Many airlines around the world have reported delays or cancellations of flights into Israel as the ongoing conflict continues. Flight cancellations have an impact on the day-to-day operations for UPS, impacting cash flow and therefore impacting WACC. As a result of the conflict in the Middle East Oil prices have seen an initial 4% increase and are expected to increase more. When oil prices rise, the cost of fuel increases, which then leads to higher operating expenses. This, in turn, impacts UPS's profitability and cash flow. If the increase in fuel costs is significant, it can increase the perceived risk of investing in UPS, potentially leading to a
higher required rate of return by investors and an increase in the cost of equity in the WACC calculation. Another significant event for UPS in 2023 was ratifying a new five-year contract with the Teamsters union, closing the door on a potential strike that could have put timely Christmas deliveries in doubt and sent shipping costs soaring. “Due to the new agreement, UPS cut its full-year revenue and profitability targets, citing higher-than-expected labor costs and business lost during the
tumultuous contract talks with the Teamsters.”
(Baertlein & C, 2023)
References:
UPS (United Parcel Service) WACC %. (2023). https://www.gurufocus.com/term/wacc/UPS/WACC-
Percentage/UPS#:~:text=As%20of%20today%20(2023%2D10,capital%20needed%20for%20that
%20investment
.
Freight market update | October 12, 2023 | UPS supply chain solutions ... (2023). https://www.ups.com/us/en/supplychain/resources/news-and-market-updates/market-
update-october-12-2023.page
Baertlein, L., & C, P. (2023, August 23). Ups Teamsters ratify contract, eliminating US Strike Risk
. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-economy-holds-its-breath-ahead-
ups-teamsters-contract-vote-2023-08-22/
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