Qualcomm - Milestone 3

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Qualcomm Technologies, Inc. Risk Analysis Tristyn Huet-Heart Southern New Hampshire University FIN-620-Q5427 Money and Capital Markets 23TW5 August 20, 2023 Dr. Collin Ezemma Ekeogu
Qualcomm Technologies, Inc. Analysis of Macroeconomic Impacts The Federal Reserve System holds the capital market conditions practically in the palm of its hand. In efforts to influence inflation and stabilize the economy, the Fed controls monetary policy and the federal fund rate. An increase in the federal fund rate sends a ripple effect throughout the economy, having an indirect impact on issuers, financial intermediaries, and investors in the capital markets. Corporations and financial institutions must analyze and assess the impact of macroeconomic impacts within the market as it influences decisions regarding capital issuance. Impact to Capital Markets The primary impact that a corporation may experiences when the Fed raises the federal fund rate is that debt financing becomes more expensive. The rate at which financial institutions are able to lend increases, thus increasing the rates at which corporations can borrow funds. Consequently, this negatively impacts cash flow stability, reduces funds to invest back into the company, and depletes consumer disposable income. With less disposable income circulating, corporations within most industry sectors may experience a decline in profits. “If a company is seen as cutting back on its growth or is less profitable—either through higher debt expenses or less revenue—the estimated amount of future cash flows will drop.” (Hall, 2023) As future cash flows are estimated to decline, so does the value of a company’s stock and anticipated returns on investments, making equity investments riskier and a less desirable option within the capital market. However, the opposite is true for bonds within the capital market. Government securities, such as treasury bills and treasury bonds, become more desireable as they are 2
considered safer investments in comparision to stocks that are surrounded by uncertainty. This is true because as the federal fund rate increases, so does the risk-free rate of return on government securities. As a result, investors are more likely to invest in treasury bonds and bills instead of equities, which puts negative pressure on stock prices in the equity capital market. (Hall, 2023) As corporiatons are navigating through the fluctiations in the economy, its imperittive to have a solid understanding on how macroeconomic events may have an impact on strategic objectivess and goals. Impact on Qualcomm’s Strategic Objectives The nature of Qualcomm’s business operations is driven by forward-thinking and innovation, therefore planning for financial security with changes in the capital market should be just as important. Qualcomm’s debt-to-equity ratio, reported at 0.86 in quarter 3 of 2023, provides an indication that equity financing is the company’s primary source for capital funding. (Macrotrends, 2023) As the Fed increase the federal fund rate, the capital market may shift as investors become concerned about the company’s projected performance and equity investments become less favorable. As investors shift away from equity investments, Qualcomm’s ability to raise capital may be hindered, ultimately impacting the to support its primary objective of investing research and development (R&D) for future innovation and inventions that drives the company’s profits. In addition, without adequate capital funding, Qualcomm’s strategic objective to provide accessibility of products and services to underserved communities through grant funding and support programs may need to scale back unless other funding can be secured. For this reason, management may need to consider other sources of capital funding such as debt financing. 3
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Risk Analysis All corporations are subject to systematic risk that can arise from microeconomic events such as fluctuations in interest rates, period of inflation, variations in foreign exchange rates, and growth in gross domestic product (GDP). While there is little to no control that a corporation can have on these events, promptly identify risk exposure can assist a corporation in mitigating the impact of the risks. As Qualcomm continues to grow, it’s imperative that management can understand and measure the financial risks it is potentially exposed to and effectively plan. There are three primary risks that Qualcomm is possibly exposed to and could impacted by if there are fluctuations in money supply: interest rate risk, liquidity risk and price risk. Risk Identification Qualcomm has some exposure to liquidity risk as it relates to uncertainty in external influences on cash flows. The company documents this risk in the 2022 10-K form stating that “[the] ability to make payments of principal and interest on [the] indebtedness depends upon [the] future performance, which is subject to economic and political conditions, industry cycles and financial, business and other factors, many of which are beyond [ones] control.” (Qualcomm, Inc., 2022) The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) control over monetary policy has influence on the nations inflation rate and if money supply is tightened, inflation will rise, reducing consumer and business spending and impacting future cash flows for Qualcomm. Not having sufficient liquidity will impact the company’s ability to meet strategic objectives of investing in R&D and expanding technological accessibility to underserved communities. In the 2022 10-K financial statements, the company also identified the potential for interest rate risk as it relates to their current debts. Depending on future performance, if the company is unable to service its current debt, it may be required to refinance its debts. 4
Qualcomm states that “refinancing, restructuring or sale of assets might not be available on economically favorable terms or at all, and if prevailing interest rates at the time of any such refinancing or restructuring are higher than [the] current rates, interest expense related to such refinancing or restructuring would increase.” (Qualcomm, Inc., 2022) Refinancing at a higher rate would reduce available free cash flow that is needed to support operations and leaving less funding available endorse strategic objectives such as technological advancement and continued advancement on sustainability. Interest rate and liquidity risk also contribute to a company’s stock price risk exposure which relates to the decline of value in an equity share of a corporation. In addition to the negative impact that rising rates may have on the Qualcomm’s ability to meet strategic objectives, the company could potentially face a decline in stock prices. As growth and profitability are often stunted during times of rising interest rates, investors shift to safer government securities. (Hall, 2023) For fear of losing their investments and stock appreciation, investors may and sell shares, driving the share prices down. Risk Measurement The first step in risk management is identifying the risk, the next step would be to analyze and measure the risk exposure before implementing controls to mitigate and control the risks. Capital shortfalls and lack of liquidity are two of the most common problems that have led to corporate and banking collapses. Based on the identified risks, Qualcomm should focus on ensuring the company is liquid enough to meet debt obligations and monitoring the company’s share price. Qualcomm’s current ratio ended the third quarter in the 2023 fiscal year at 2.42, up 38% from 1.75 at the end of fourth quarter in the 2022 fiscal year. (Macrotrends, 2023) This indicates 5
that the company has prioritized liquidity and currently has sufficient current assets to meet short-term debt obligations. The company’s long-term debt-to-capital has also seen significant improvement over the last three fiscal years, decreasing nearly 40% from 0.71 in 2020 to .43 in 2022. (Macrotrends, 2023) As a measurement of the company’s financial leverage, this is an indicator that management has made strategic efforts to reduce risk associated with debt financing and instead has prioritized increasing capital. With a concern for potential interest rate risk, management should also prioritize its ability to make interest payments on liabilities and ensuring there is no need to refinance. Based on historical trends, Qualcomm has averaged an interest coverage ratio of 15.6 within fiscal years 2018 to 2022, by far exceeding the industry average ratio of 1.7, which indicates that the company has sufficient funding to cover interest payments. (Finbox, 2023) The debt-to-equity ratio also indicates that the company has prioritized equity financing over debt financing in recent years. While the company’s debt has stayed consistent and averaged $30.6 billion over the last three years, the debt-to-equity ratio has declined from 4.86 in fiscal year 2020 to 1.72 at the end of the 2022 fiscal year. Qualcomm is strategically utitlzing equity financing instead of debt financing and this is lessen the exposure to interest rate risk. With fluctations in the capital market, Qualcom should pay close attention to movement in the company’s share price and earning per share as these are two measurements that can indicate potential price risk exposure. In the most recent third quarter ending June 30, 2023, Qualcomm’s earnings per share (EPS) was reported at $1.60 which has declined 51.37% year over year. (Macrotrends, 2023) In addition to the decline to EPS, there has also been a steady decline of the share prices over the last three years. The average annual stock price has declined from $139.25 in 2021 to $118.75 in the last three quarters of 2023. (Macrotrends, 2023) Both 6
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measurements could indicate that shareholders have concerns regarding profitability and risk to returns on investment and thus are selling their shares, driving both the share price and the company’s valuation down. Conclusion Qualcomm has made successful efforts in mitigating and reducing interest rate and liquating risk exposure over the last few years. The company’s financial performance, as indicated by various ratios, has proven that management has prioritized liquidity and meeting debt obligations. Although the risk exposure for interest rate and liquidity risk have been appropriately managed, it appears that the company is still challenged with managing price risk exposure as the stock price has seen decline in the last several years. Despite having little control over the macroeconomic events that expose the company to systemic risk, Qualcomm appears to be aware of these risks and is planning appropriately in efforts to reduce the potential impacts of macroeconomic events. 7
References Board of Governers of the Federal Reserve System. (2023, January 20). Fed Functions: The Three Key Entities Transcript . Retrieved from Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/fed-functions-the-three-key-entities- transcript-20230120.pdf Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2023, July 5). Federal Open Market Committee . Retrieved from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm Chen, J. (2023, March 13). Reserve Requirements: Definition, History, and Example . Retrieved from Investopedia: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/requiredreserves.asp#:~:text=By%20increasing %20the%20reserve%20requirement,bank%20credit%20and%20lowers%20rates. Federal Open Market Committee. (2023, June 14). Press Release . Retrieved from Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230614a.htm Federal Reserve Board. (2016, October). What is the Fed? Retrieved from Federal Reserve Board: https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/what-is-the-fed-transcript- 2016.pdf Finbox. (2023). Interest Coverage Ratio for QUALCOMM Incorporated . Retrieved from Finbox: https://finbox.com/NASDAQGS:QCOM/explorer/interest_coverage/ Hall, M. (2023, July 22). How Do Interest Rates Affect the Stock Market? Retrieved from Investopedia: https://www.investopedia.com/investing/how-interest-rates-affect-stock- 8
market/#:~:text=For%20income%2Doriented%20investors%2C%20a,market%20to %20the%20equity%20market. Macrotrends. (2023). QUALCOMM Financial Ratios for Analysis 2009-2023 | QCOM . Retrieved from Macrotrends: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/QCOM/qualcomm/financial-ratios?freq=Q McBride, J., Siripurapu, A., & Berman, N. (2022, November 8). What is the U.S. Federal Reserve? Retrieved from Control on Foreign Relations: https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-us-federal-reserve#:~:text=The%20U.S. %20central%20banking%20system,supply%2C%20and%20regulating%20financial %20markets Qualcomm Inc. (2022). 2022 Qualcomm Corporate Responsibility Report. Qualcomm. Qualcomm, Inc. (2022, September 25). 2022 Form 10-K . Retrieved from United States Security Exchange Commission: https://investor.qualcomm.com/financial-information/sec- filings/content/0000804328-22-000021/0000804328-22-000021.pdf Qualcomm, Inc. (n.d.). ESG & Corporate Responsibility . Retrieved from Qualcomm, Inc. : https://www.qualcomm.com/company/corporate-responsibility 9
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