Question Set II
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Apr 3, 2024
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Uploaded by CaptainSummerOtter7
Aliana Lunine
Professor Shane Underwood
English 1C
12 January 2024
Question Set II
Jonathan St B. T. Evans, Thinking and Reasoning: A Very Short Introduction
1.
According to Evans, what role do causal hypotheses and mental models play in hypothetical thinking?
In Evans' hypothetical thinking investigation, causal hypotheses and mental models appear as central elements shaping cognitive processes. Causal hypotheses are fundamental in building speculative scenarios and examining potential cause-and-effect relationships, forming the basis for hypothetical thinking. They empower individuals to make predictions and explanations based
on presumed causal relationships and facilitate the exploration of various possibilities. At the same time, mental models contribute significantly to the cognitive framework for analyzing hypothetical scenarios. As internal representations of these hypotheses, mental models help visualize different possibilities. Evans claims that the synergy between causal hypotheses and mental models is essential within the cognitive mechanism of theoretical thinking, which allows people to navigate complex scenarios by formulating and evaluating potential causal relationships within their mental frameworks (Evans, Thinking, and Reasoning: A Very Short Introduction).
In addition, Evans emphasizes the role of causal hypotheses in creating explanations for events and mental models as internal representations that enable simulation and prediction of outcomes in hypothetical scenarios. This dual function allows people to think about possible consequences and explore hypothetical scenarios (Evans, 2017, p. 53). Ultimately, causal hypotheses and mental models are necessary tools that foster the capacity for theoretical thinking and reasoning
2.
Reconstruct the central tenets of rational decision-making, as articulated by Evans. Evans outlines the fundamental principles of rational decision-making by emphasizing the importance of examining relevant evidence and using logical reasoning. According to Evans, this
process involves systematically evaluating available information, in which people assess the advantages and disadvantages of different options. This requires a critical analysis of the evidence, considering its reliability and the potential consequences of each alternative. Furthermore, Evans claims that rational decision-making requires consideration of uncertainties and probabilities, recognizing that not all information is certain or absolute. Essentially, Evans' framework for rational decision-making includes a thoughtful and deliberate process that combines evidence-based thinking, critical analysis, and awareness of uncertainties to reach informed and logically justified decisions (Evans, Thinking and Reasoning: A Very Short Introduction). In addition, Evans details critical steps in the rational decision-making process, including clearly defining the decision problem, identifying the desired outcomes, collecting and evaluating relevant information, weighing potential costs and benefits, choosing the option to
maximize the expected benefit, and maintaining consistency and transparency. He emphasizes the need for a systematic and analytical approach, urging people to consider all relevant information while avoiding biases and emotional influences (Evans, 2017, p. 82).
3.
What is deductive reasoning, and what is the role of inference in deductive reasoning?
Deductive reasoning, a logical process rooted in agreement from given premises, relies on inference rules to ensure a specific and valid result. Inference, the analytical process of drawing conclusions based on evidence or premises, is essential in deductive reasoning. This process allows us to draw logical conclusions from the given premises using principles such as modus ponens, modus tollens, and syllogism. In essence, inference is the necessary bridge that connects the provided information with the conclusion, making deductive reasoning a powerful tool for reaching definitive and logically coherent findings. Evans emphasizes the importance of inference in the process of deductive thinking, emphasizing its role in ensuring the correctness of
logical derivation and the validity of conclusions (Evans, 2017, p. 105). This structured and deterministic approach distinguishes between deductive and inductive reasoning, where the generalizations derive from specific observations (Evans, Thinking and Reasoning: A Very Short
Introduction).
4.
What are the central tenets of Bayesianism, and what does it contribute to theories of thinking and reasoning?
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Bayesianism is a statistical and philosophical framework that centralizes the following tenets:
1. Beliefs are probabilistic: Bayesianism posits that beliefs should be represented as probabilities,
reflecting degrees of confidence.
2. Updating beliefs: Bayes' theorem guides the revision of probabilities in response to new evidence or information.
3. Prior knowledge matters: Prior beliefs and expectations inform reasoning, and updating occurs
incrementally and iteratively.
Bayesianism contributes to theories of thinking and reasoning by:
1. Encouraging probabilistic reasoning, acknowledging uncertainty and ambiguity.
2. Providing a framework for integrating new information with prior knowledge.
3. Offering a quantitative approach to understanding cognitive biases and heuristics.
4. Informing models of decision-making, judgment, and problem-solving under uncertainty (Evans, 2017, p. 128).
5.
According to Evans, what are the dominant biases that affect hypothetical thinking, decision-making, and reasoning?
According to Evans, some dominant biases that affect hypothetical thinking, decision-
making, and reasoning include:
1. Confirmation bias: the tendency to seek and give more weight to information confirming our beliefs.
2. Anchoring bias: the tendency to rely too heavily on initial information or anchors when
making decisions.
3. Availability heuristic: the tendency to overestimate the importance of readily available information.
4. Hindsight bias: the tendency to believe, after an event, that we would have predicted it.
5. Self-serving bias: the tendency to attribute success to internal factors and failure to external factors.
These biases can lead to errors in thinking, decision-making, and reasoning, and awareness of them is essential to mitigate their impact (Evans, 2017, p. 150).
Evans, Jonathan St B. T. Thinking and Reasoning: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford University Press, 2017.
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