Hotton Reseach Paper (Revised)
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Feasibility of Electric Vehicle replacement of Internal Combustion Engines
Ralph I. Hotton
University of Maryland Global Campus
WRTG 112 Academic Writing
April 23, 2024
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In 1891 the first electric car was developed by William Morrison in Des Moines, Iowa. Development of these vehicles continued in parallel to the internal combustion engine (ICE) that was most prevalent in the market of personal transportation throughout the twentieth century, even attaining some notable achievements. For instance, in 1899 an electric vehicle (EV) driven by a Belgian, Camille Jenatzy (a builder of electric carriages), was the first to break the one hundred km/h mark. However, with the ICE powered vehicle becoming increasingly affordable and versatile, the development of EVs slowed and eventually only filled the garages of hobbyists
and collectors of novelties. But now, as the world pivots to mitigate carbon emissions, solidify energy policy, and adapt to an increasingly connected and accessible world, a conscious shift towards EVs as a replacement for ICE is vital and increasingly becoming a reality despite numerous hurdles.
After the initial success of EVs and subsequent adoption of a universal expectation of ICE vehicles, environmental impact began to be noticed in a scale not seen before. In 1943 the first recognized instance of “smog” was noted in Los Angeles. This led to the formation
of Los Angeles County Air Pollution Control District, the precursor to many current environmental agencies. Although limited in scope, and not primarily geared at automobiles, it did establish a common interest in the quality of air in a municipality. With the genesis of other such programs, air quality became something worth safeguarding and many sought to keep it healthy on both local and global scales. The Environmental Protection Agency filled a similar role at the national level and began to pass reforms related to fuel consumption. Despite being, in
the initial instance, primarily aimed at the ability save fuel nationally for future consumption, it would set precedent for current regulations which address fuel economy for an entire manufacturer’s catalog. Consumers en masse have now become concerned about the fuel they
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were burning and the effects it had on their finances as well as the world around them. Now more
than ever, an average person is more likely to consider the larger impact of their actions. A prospective car buyer is likely to include sustainability in their list of important qualities instead of just raw stats about the vehicle.
Recognition of environmental impact in Los Angeles and later nationally was revitalized i
n the mid-2000s as non-typical ICE cars such as the Toyota Prius came into the public eye. This technology offered a new means to reduce our impact on carbon emission and oil production. With the rising cost of gasoline some consumers were searching for ways to save money as others entered the market for more idealistic reasons. Without respect to the motives of
the purchasers, these vehicles became more viable, and the EV was brought back into public consideration for the first time since the notably shuttered GM EV-1. The GM EV-1 was the first noteworthy attempt at appealing to a daily driver. It’s lukewarm reception and technological handicaps were driving factor in peoples’ decision to remain with a ICE engine, and the EV remained a novelty.
Models like the Tesla Roadster and Nissan Leaf began to see notable success and remains staples to this day
. As Tesla continues the propagation of their
proprietary charging infrastructure, North American Charging Standard (NACS), the concerns of
fueling are eased with the advent of new updates and technology. Furthermore, research being done in China indicates that a battery swapping system more akin to a gas station is possible and may be viable in the near future. (Tang et al., 2024) With this new advent in technology we can hope to see a paradigm shift in the way EVs are powered, and potentially see a parallel power source develop simultaneously. Ideally the ability to swap a battery will be beneficial in several ways. It will ease the point of sale cost of battery maintenance long-term by putting the responsibility of monitoring and maintaining battery health onto the service provider,
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and it will allow renewing the power source to be rapid and more akin to what a typical gas
station service would appear to be.
These advancements in technology also manifest themselves in the infrastructure necessary for EVs to be viable to the lay person. A conscious shift toward EVs from ICE is untenable to people who commute daily and require access to unique services such as rapid charging, specialty wrecker or towing services, and routine maintenance facilities. In their 2022 paper: “Why are charging stations associated with electric vehicle adoption? Untangling effects in three United States metropolitan areas” White et al. identify that in the metro areas where they
conducted their study; much of the infrastructure is already present and was driven by an already present population of EV drivers. As more drivers and consumers gravitate towards an electric market it is expected that the infrastructure will follow the trend, becoming more readily available. This will likely nullify many of the concerns that are expressed by drivers when the purchase of an electric vehicle is considered, and the purchase of an EV will more closely resemble the purchase of a traditional family or commercial vehicle. Although consumer anxiety remains a point of contention EVs are demonstrably viable when compared to their
earlier iterations such as the GM EV-1 and manufacturers such as Tesla, Nissan, and Rivian are working to assuage those fears.
One common trend when searching for vehicles as a consumer is to identify the types of vehicles driven as fleet by government or corporate entities. If a prospective buyer wants a vehicle to suit a specific need, they can compare what types of vehicles are operated on a larger scale to do that task. For instance, if an independent contractor wants to purchase a one-ton truck
with which he or she can tow and haul the materials associated with their job, then they might look and see that an F250 or Chevrolet 2500 is the typical fleet vehicle in their area. If a large
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family wants to purchase a twelve-person van, they might see that the government entities in their area drive Ford Transits or Chevrolet E2500s
. This may seem inconsequential to the EV market but as EVs gain credibility for daily use they will likely see a market emerge where many
thousands are purchased in bulk to be the next generation of U-Haul cargo vans or Enterprise passenger van rentals. For the consumer this bring the purchase of an electric vehicle to an even closer level of fidelity when compared to the purchase of ICE vehicles. By 2035 the United States Federal government is obligated by an executive order to have a majority of their fleet transition to battery electric vehicles (BEV). This, is in conjunction with federal incentive program aimed at individual Americans, indicate an attempt to sway the habits of the populace when the time to replace their current cars.
Government intervention to sway spending habits and drive consumer responses is well known. Ranging from excise taxes on tobacco products or alcohol to rebating tax money to seed swathes of private land with wildflowers different levels of government seek to attain different goals by introducing forms of market pressure in hopes of achieving their desired results. The US
government recently updated its incentive program for the purchase of EVs with a series of reforms. These include up to seven thousand five hundred dollars of tax rebates, a clean school bus program, and suspension of the twelve percent excise tax on trucks if they are zero-emission.
Two of these, the rebates and excise tax elimination, have an immediate or near immediate effect
on the purchase of vehicles. The clean bus program in conjunction with the United States Post Office fleet transition further bolster the benefits of associated with the increasing gross number of EVs on the road, helping those consumers capitalize on reduced costs with operating on a daily basis. All of this to hopefully expedite the process by which products are typically brough to market, and thereby increase the number of EVs on the roads.
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As the number of EVs on the road continues to increase the number of profitable charging stations increases in sequence. (Stock, K. 2024) Stock studied charging stations across the United States and the parameters that must be met for that station to see a noteworthy return on investment. To summarize, a station needs to see utilization of their hardware approximately fifteen percent of any given time period to see a profit during that period. Currently EV market share is estimated to be approximately eight percent. As that number climbs time utilized at each station is expected to increase in parallel while also increasing the number of charging stations that can reasonably expect to turn a profit. Additionally, the NACS charging protocol may lead to an increased number of travelers willing to venture past the bounds of their daily commute and
into the country at large. As travelers become less anxious about leaving the locality where they are familiar with all the services they may need they can begin to remove the unpredictability of cross country EV travel with the assurance that NACS and the Tesla mobile application can chart
a route and accurately forecast the stops that they will need to make in addition to the amount time they will need to stay there to attain the necessary level of battery life. This final point is particularly important to the American consumer bases as many people
are nearly inseparable from their vehicle. And even if they were not, a point of national pride is the sheer immensity of the United States. Irrespective of logical points many consumers buy based on perceived needs as much or more than their needs in an empirical sense. The penultimate hurdle facing EV mass adoption is the perceived reduction in a person’s freedom of movement. Again, as White et al. noted in their study on charging stations correlation to EV people poled consistently listed anxiety about their ability to travel from one place to another as a
major source of anxiety. And so long as that perception remains it will remain the largest point of
friction in adoption.
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In conclusion the adoption of EVs is crucial to our continued success as a nation and, realistically, as a species. No longer a novelty of dead-end development, the technology has come into a level of maturity that it missed when the ICE began to dominate the market. With that technology comes the ability to assuage the fears of consumers; individual, corporate fleet, and government agencies that these vehicles cannot hold up to their needs. Brand success with names like the Tesla Model 3, Nissan leaf, Rivian R1T, and an ever-expanding market help people rest easy that they did not simply acquire a conversation piece. They cement the concept of an EV as reasonable replacement to the ICE engine of the twentieth century. The fuse has been lit and EVs continue to grow in market share and general availability the market will more closely mirror the one we already understand where any person can expect a high degree of independence and versatility in owning a vehicle. The caveat being that there is no concern that the vehicle is electric, because that can be the norm. The reasons listed above are a clear indication that the world is nearing a point where a final shift from ICE to EV is imminent and will manifest as a decision made at an individual level steered in varying but minor degrees by governmental policy and the market’s ability to meet their needs.
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References
1.
Beckford, A. (2024, March 18). The Great NACS migration: Who is switching to Tesla’s charging port? MotorTrend. https://www.motortrend.com/features/tesla-nacs-
charging-port-automaker-compatibility
2.
Davenport, C., & Boudette, N. (2023, April 13). Biden Plans an Electric Vehicle Revolution. Now, the Hard Part. The New York Times. Retrieved April 22, 2024, from https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/13/climate/electric-vehicles-biden-epa.html
3.
Federal Fleets: Zero-Emission Vehicle implementation. (n.d.). U.S. GAO. https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-105350
4.
How Los Angeles Began to Put its Smoggy Days Behind. (2022, March 3). PBS SoCal. https://www.pbssocal.org/history-society/how-los-angeles-began-to-put-its-
smoggy-days-behind
5.
Huffman, J. P. (1997, January 2). 1997 GM EV1 - The First Consumer Ready Electric
Vehicle vs. The Real World. MotorTrend. https://www.motortrend.com/features/1997-
gm-ev1/
6.
Jenn, A., Lee, J. H., Hardman, S., & Tal, G. (2020). An in-depth examination of electric vehicle incentives: Consumer heterogeneity and changing response over time.
Transportation Research Part A: Policy & Practice, 132, 97–109. https://doi-
org.ezproxy.umgc.edu/10.1016/j.tra.2019.11.004
7.
Stock, K. (2024). EV Charging Stations Are Finally Getting Busy Enough to Make Money in US. Bloomberg.Com, N.PAG.
8.
Tang, M., Zhang, C., Zhang, Y., Yan, Y., Wang, W., & An, B. (2024). A Dual-Layer MPC of Coordinated Control of Battery Load Demand and Grid-Side Supply
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Matching at Electric Vehicle Swapping Stations. Energies (19961073), 17(4), 879. https://doi-org.ezproxy.umgc.edu/10.3390/en17040879
9.
White, L. V., Carrel, A. L., Shi, W., & Sintov, N. D. (2022). Why are charging stations associated with electric vehicle adoption? Untangling effects in three United States metropolitan areas. Energy Research & Social Science, 89. https://doi-
org.ezproxy.umgc.edu/10.1016/j.erss.2022.102663
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