Operations Management
Operations Management
11th Edition
ISBN: 9780132921145
Author: Jay Heizer
Publisher: PEARSON
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Chapter A, Problem 24P

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•••• A.24 On the opening page of Module A and in Example A8, we follow the poker decision made by Paul Phillips against veteran T.J. Cloutier. Create a decision tree that corresponds with the decision made by Phillips.

At the Legends of Poker tournament in Los Angeles, veteran T.J. Cloutier opens with a $60,000 bet. (Antes and required bets of $39,000 are already on the table.) Former Go2net CTO Paul Phillips ponders going “all in”—betting virtually all his chips. Using decision theory, here’s how he decided.

“To see the details of Phillips’s decision, see Example A8.

As on the first page in this module, Paul Phillips is deciding whether to bet all his chips against poker star T.J. Cloutier. Philips holds a pair of 7s. Phillips reasons that T.J. will fold (with 80% probability) if he does not have a pair of 5s or better, or very high cards like a jack, queen, king, or ace. But he also figures that a call would put $853,000 into the pot and surmises that even then, there is 45% chance his pair of 7s will win.

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