Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781337406659
Author: WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher: Cengage,
expand_more
expand_more
format_list_bulleted
Concept explainers
Question
Chapter 9, Problem 48P
Summary Introduction
To determine: The capacity level that Company F should choose.
Introduction: Simulation model is the digital prototype of the physical model that helps to
Expert Solution & Answer
Trending nowThis is a popular solution!
Students have asked these similar questions
A real estate investor has the opportunity to purchase land currently zoned residential. If the county board approves a request to rezone the property as commercial within the next year, the investor will be able to lease the land to a large discount firm that wants to open a new store on the property. However, if the zoning change is not approved, the investor will have to sell the property at a loss. Profits (in thousands of dollars) are shown in the following payoff table:
State of Nature
Rezoning Approved
Rezoning Not Approved
Decision Alternative
S1
S2
Purchase, d1
590
-160
Do not purchase, d2
0
0
If the probability that the rezoning will be approved is 0.5, what decision is recommended?Recommended decision:
What is the expected profit?Expected profit: $ fill in the blank 2
The investor can purchase an option to buy the land. Under the option, the investor maintains the rights to purchase the land anytime during the next three months while learning more…
Benjamin Moses, chief engineer of Offshore Chemicals, Inc., must decide whether to build a new processing facility based on an experimental technology. If the new facility works, the company will realize a net profit of $20 million. If the new facility fails, the company will lose $10 million. Benjamin’s best guess is that there is a 40 percent chance that the new facility will work. What decision should Benjamin Moses make?
A retailer must decide whether to build a small or a large facility at a new location. Demand at the location can be either low or high, with probabilities estimated to be 0.4 and 0.6, respectively. If a small facility is built and demand proves to be high, the manager may choose not to expand (payoff = $223,000) or to expand (payoff = $270,000). If a small facility is built and demand is low, there is no reason to expand and the payoff is $200,000. If a large facility is built and demand proves to be low, the choice is to do nothing ($40,000) or to stimulate demand through local advertising. The response to advertising may be either modest or sizable, with their probabilities estimated to be 0.3 and 0.7, respectively. If it is modest, the payoff is estimated to be only $20,000; the payoff grows to $220,000 if the response is sizable. Finally, if a large facility is built and demand turns out to be high, the payoff is $800,000.Draw a decision tree. Then analyze it to determine the…
Chapter 9 Solutions
Practical Management Science
Ch. 9.2 - Prob. 1PCh. 9.2 - Prob. 2PCh. 9.2 - Prob. 3PCh. 9.3 - Prob. 4PCh. 9.3 - Prob. 5PCh. 9.3 - Prob. 6PCh. 9.3 - Prob. 7PCh. 9.4 - Explain in some detail how the PrecisionTree...Ch. 9.4 - Prob. 9PCh. 9.4 - Prob. 10P
Ch. 9.5 - Prob. 11PCh. 9.5 - Prob. 12PCh. 9.5 - Prob. 13PCh. 9.5 - Prob. 17PCh. 9.5 - Prob. 18PCh. 9.5 - Prob. 19PCh. 9.5 - Prob. 21PCh. 9.5 - The model in Example 9.3 has only two market...Ch. 9.6 - Prob. 26PCh. 9.6 - Prob. 27PCh. 9.6 - Prob. 28PCh. 9 - Prob. 30PCh. 9 - Prob. 31PCh. 9 - Prob. 32PCh. 9 - Prob. 34PCh. 9 - Prob. 36PCh. 9 - Prob. 37PCh. 9 - Prob. 38PCh. 9 - Prob. 39PCh. 9 - Prob. 46PCh. 9 - Prob. 48PCh. 9 - Prob. 53PCh. 9 - Prob. 67PCh. 9 - Prob. 68PCh. 9 - Prob. 69PCh. 9 - Prob. 70PCh. 9 - Prob. 71PCh. 9 - Prob. 72PCh. 9 - Prob. 73PCh. 9 - Prob. 74PCh. 9 - Prob. 75PCh. 9 - Prob. 76PCh. 9 - Prob. 77P
Knowledge Booster
Learn more about
Need a deep-dive on the concept behind this application? Look no further. Learn more about this topic, operations-management and related others by exploring similar questions and additional content below.Similar questions
- ACME, Inc. firm was trying to decide which of the four projects it should submit a bid for, There is a 50% probability of certain event occurring that ACME firm will win the contract for project 1 which is estimated to be worth $120,000 in profit. There is a 50% probability that it will not win the contract for Project 1, and the outcome is estimated to be -$50,000. Suppose for a second project (project 2), there is a 30% probability that the firm will lose $60,000, a 40% probability that it will win $50,000, and a 30% probability that it will earn $100,000. In project 3, there is a 70% chance of making $20,000 but there is also a risk of losing $5,000 as well with 30% probability. A fourth project (Project 4) involves 30% chance of making $40,000, 30% chance of making $30,000, and 20% chance of making $20,000. There is also a 20% chance of losing $50,000 in the same project. Draw a (decision tree) diagram and calculate the EMV for each project. Write a paragraph explaining which…arrow_forwardA large steel manufacturing company has three options with regard to production: Produce commercially Build pilot plant Stop producing steel The management has estimated that their pilot plant, if built has 0.8 chance of high yield and 0.2 chance of low yield. If the pilot plant does show a high yield, management assigns a probability of 0.75 that the commercial plant will also have a high yield. If the pilot plant shows a low yield, there is only a 0.1 chance that the commercial plant will show a high yield. Finally, management’s best assessment of the yield on a commercial size plant without building a pilot plant first has 0.6 chance of high yield. A pilot plant will cost K300,000. The profits earned under high and low yield conditions are K12,000,000 and K1,200,000 respectively. Draw up an appropriate decision tree for the steel manufacturing company What is the company’s best strategy under EMV approacharrow_forwardSouthern Gas Company (SGC) is preparing to make a bid for oil and gas leasing right in a newly opened drilling area in the Gulf of Mexico. SGC is trying to decide whether to place a high bid of $16 million or a low bid of $7 million. SGC expects to be bidding against its major competitor, Northern Gas Company (NGC) and predicts NGC to place a bid of $10 million with probability 0.4 or a bid of $6 million with probability 0.6. Geological data collected at the drilling site indicates a 0.15 probability of the reserves at the site being large, a 0.35 probability of being average, and a 0.50 probability of being unusable. A large or average reserve would most likely represent a net asset value of $120 million or $28 million, respectively, after all drilling and extraction costs are paid. The company that wins the bid will drill an exploration well at the site for a cost of $5 million. a. Develop a decision tree for this problem. b. What is the optimal decision according to the EMV…arrow_forward
- The XYZ manufacturing company is considering replacing one of its metal cutting machine which can be sold today for $3,000. If they kept this machine for 4 more years, its salvage value will be zero. The challenger costs $18,000, and its life is 4 years. The estimated salvage value of the challenger at the end of four years is $6,000. Should the XYZ company replace the old machine? Use the opportunity cost approach with rate of return of 10%. Assume operating costs per year for defender equals $2,000 and a saving in operating costs per year of 75% for challenger.arrow_forward1. Procter, president of a food company, must decide whether to market a new breakfast drink which the R and D division has developed. A special meeting devoted to this topic yields the following information: ● The marketing vice-president has defined two possible outcomes for the success of this product; either the public will accept the product, or it will not. She believes that the product will be accepted with probability 0.1. The cost engineers believe that if the product is marketed and accepted, the company will net $100,000 yearly. If the product is rejected, however, the company will suffer a net loss of $20,000 yearly. If Procter decides not to market the product, her company will neither accrue more cost nor make any profit on this product. ● Procter always makes decisions based on the expected value of the outcomes. A. What is the best strategy in this case? B. Compute for EVPI.arrow_forwardConsider the following payoff table for three product decisions (A, B, and C) and three future market conditions (payoffs = P millions) Assume that is now possible for the company to estimate a probability of 0.40 that market condition1 will exist, 0.40 for market condition 2 and a probability of 0.20 that market condition 3 will exist in the future. Determine the best decision using expected value. Determine the expected value of perfect information (EVPI)?Determine the best decision using expected opportunity loss.arrow_forward
- John Corner, chief engineer of Offshore Chemicals, Inc., have to decide whether to build a new processing facility based on an experimental technology. If the new facility works, the company will realize a net profit of $20 million. If the new facility fails, the company will lose $10 million. Benjamin’s best guess is that there is a 40 percent chance that the new facility will work What decision should Benjamin Moses make?arrow_forwardThe Americo Oil Company is considering making a bid for a shale oil development contract to be awarded by the federal government. The company has decided to bid $112 million. The company estimates that it has a 60% chance of winning the contract with this bid. If the firm wins the contract, it can choose one of three methods for getting the oil from the shale. It can develop a new method for oil extraction, use an existing (inefficient) process, or subcontract the processing to a number of smaller companies once the shale has been excavated. The results from these alternatives are as follows: Develop new process: Outcomes Probability Profit ($1,000,000s) Great success .30 $ 600 Moderate success .60 300 Failure .10 -100 Use present process: Outcomes Probability Profit ($1,000,000s) Great success .50 $ 300 Moderate success .30 200 Failure .20 -40 Subcontract: Outcome Probability Profit ($1,000,000s) Moderate success 1.00 250 The cost of preparing the contract proposal is $2 million. If…arrow_forwardSouthern Gas Company (SGC) is preparing to make a bid for oil and gas leasing rights in a newly opened drilling area in the Gulf of Mexico. SGC is trying to decide whether to place a high bid of $16 million or a low bid of $7 million. SGC expects to be bidding against its major competitor, Northern Gas Company (NGC) and predicts NGC to place a bid of $10 million with probability 0.4 or a bid of $6 million with probability 0.6. Geological data collected at the drilling site indicates a 0.15 probability of the reserves at the site being large, a 0.35 probability of being average, and a 0.50 probability of being unusable. A large or average reserve would most likely represent a net asset value of $120 million or $28 million, respectively, after all drilling and extraction costs are paid. The company that wins the bid will drill an exploration well at the site for a cost of $5 million. a. Develop a decision tree for this problem. b. What is the optimal decision according to the EMV…arrow_forward
- A soft drink company is considering launching a ‘seasonal soda’ that will be sold for a limited duration. They are considering selling the new soda X-Mist during the upcoming summer season. The company believes, based on its limited market analysis, that there is a 0.75 probability that X-Mist will have a successful summer season and have estimated that they will receive a profit of $4 million if it is successful. If X-Mist is not successful over the summer season, the company will incur a loss of $900,000. The firm Market-Strategies can do an extensive market analysis for a fee of $35,000. Market-Strategies has demonstrated that it is 90 percent reliable in its market analysis for soft drinks, i.e., a soda that will be successful in the market will be reported as ‘Successful’ by Market-Strategies with a probability 0.9 and a soda that will not be successful in the market will be reported as ‘Fail’ by Market-Strategies with a probability of 0.9. The soft drink company must decide…arrow_forwardRonald Lau, chief engineer at South Dakota Electronics, has to decide whether to build a new state-of-the-art processing facility. If the new facility works, the company could realize a profit of $200,000. If it fails, South Dakota Electronics could lose $180,000. At this time, Lau estimates a 60% chance that the new process will fail. The other option is to build a pilot plant and then decide whether to build a complete facility. The pilot plant would cost $10,000 to build. Lau estimates a 50 - 50 chance that the pilot plant will work. If the pilot plant works, there is a 90% probability that the complete plant, if it is built, will also work. If the pilot plant does not work, there is only a 20% chance that the complete project (if it is constructed) will work. Lau faces a dilemma. Should he build the plant? Should he build the pilot project and then make a decision? Help Lau by analyzing this problem. Pxarrow_forwardA nuclear power company is deciding whether or not tobuild a nuclear power plant at Diablo Canyon or at RoyRogers City. The cost of building the power plant is $10million at Diablo and $20 million at Roy Rogers City. If thecompany builds at Diablo, however, and an earthquakeoccurs at Diablo during the next five years, constructionwill be terminated and the company will lose $10 million(and will still have to build a power plant at Roy RogersCity). A priori, the company believes there is a 20% chancethat an earthquake will occur at Diablo during the next fiveyears. For $1 million, a geologist can be hired to analyze thefault structure at Diablo Canyon. He will either predict thatan earthquake will occur or that an earthquake will notoccur. The geologist’s past record indicates that he willpredict an earthquake on 95% of the occasions for which anearthquake will occur and no earthquake on 90% of theoccasions for which an earthquake will not occur. Shouldthe power company hire the…arrow_forward
arrow_back_ios
SEE MORE QUESTIONS
arrow_forward_ios
Recommended textbooks for you
- Practical Management ScienceOperations ManagementISBN:9781337406659Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.Publisher:Cengage,Operations ManagementOperations ManagementISBN:9781259667473Author:William J StevensonPublisher:McGraw-Hill EducationOperations and Supply Chain Management (Mcgraw-hi...Operations ManagementISBN:9781259666100Author:F. Robert Jacobs, Richard B ChasePublisher:McGraw-Hill Education
- Purchasing and Supply Chain ManagementOperations ManagementISBN:9781285869681Author:Robert M. Monczka, Robert B. Handfield, Larry C. Giunipero, James L. PattersonPublisher:Cengage LearningProduction and Operations Analysis, Seventh Editi...Operations ManagementISBN:9781478623069Author:Steven Nahmias, Tava Lennon OlsenPublisher:Waveland Press, Inc.
Practical Management Science
Operations Management
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:Cengage,
Operations Management
Operations Management
ISBN:9781259667473
Author:William J Stevenson
Publisher:McGraw-Hill Education
Operations and Supply Chain Management (Mcgraw-hi...
Operations Management
ISBN:9781259666100
Author:F. Robert Jacobs, Richard B Chase
Publisher:McGraw-Hill Education
Purchasing and Supply Chain Management
Operations Management
ISBN:9781285869681
Author:Robert M. Monczka, Robert B. Handfield, Larry C. Giunipero, James L. Patterson
Publisher:Cengage Learning
Production and Operations Analysis, Seventh Editi...
Operations Management
ISBN:9781478623069
Author:Steven Nahmias, Tava Lennon Olsen
Publisher:Waveland Press, Inc.