Operations Management: Processes and Supply Chains (11th Edition)
11th Edition
ISBN: 9780133872132
Author: Lee J. Krajewski, Manoj K. Malhotra, Larry P. Ritzman
Publisher: PEARSON
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Textbook Question
Chapter 9, Problem 1VC
Consider the pressures for small versus large inventories. Which situation does Crayola seem to fit, and why?
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Scenario
You have been given a task to create a demand forecast for the second year of sales of a premium outdoor grill.
Accurate forecasts are important for many reasons, including for the company to ensure they have the materials
they need to create the products required in a certain period of time. Your objective is to minimize the forecast
error, which will be measured using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) with a goal of being below 25%.
You have historical monthly sales data for the past year and access to software that provides forecasts based on
five different forecasting techniques (Naïve, 3-Month Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing for .2, Exponential
Smooth for .5, and Seasonal) to help determine the best forecast for that particular month. Based on the given
data, you will identify trends and patterns to create a more accurate forecast.
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next…
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next
month.
Remember to select the forecasting technique that produces the forecast error nearest to zero. For example:
a. Naïve Forecast is 230 and the Forecast Error is -15.
b. 3-Month Moving Forecast is 290 and the Forecast Error is -75.
c. Exponential Smoothing Forecast for .2 is 308 and the Forecast Error is -93.
d. Exponential Smoothing Forecast for .5 is 279 and the Forecast Error is -64.
e. Seasonal Forecast is 297 and the Forecast Error is -82.
The forecast for the next month would be 230 as the Naïve Forecast had the Forecast Error closest to zero with a
-15. This forecasting technique was the best performing technique for that month. You do not need to do any
external analysis-the forecast error for each strategy is already calculated for you in the tables below.
Naïve
Month Period
Actual
Demand
Naïve Forecast
Error
3-
Month
Moving
Forecast
3-
Month
Moving…
Chapter 9 Solutions
Operations Management: Processes and Supply Chains (11th Edition)
Ch. 9 - What is the relationship between inventory and the...Ch. 9 - Suppose that a large discount retailer with a lot...Ch. 9 - Will organizations ever get to the point where...Ch. 9 - A part is produced in lots of 1,000 units. It is...Ch. 9 - Prince Electronics, a manufacturer of consumer...Ch. 9 - Terminator, Inc. manufactures a motorcycle part in...Ch. 9 - Ruby-Star Incorporated is considering two...Ch. 9 - Haley Photocopying purchases paper from an...Ch. 9 - Prob. 6PCh. 9 - Southern Markets, Inc. is considering the use of...
Ch. 9 - New Wave Shelving’s inventory manager would like...Ch. 9 - Yellow Press, Inc. buys paper in 1,500-pound rolls...Ch. 9 - Babble, Inc. buys 400 blank cassette tapes per...Ch. 9 - At Dot Com, a large retailer of popular books,...Ch. 9 - Leaky Pipe, a local retailer of plumbing supplies,...Ch. 9 - Sam’s Cat Hotel operates 52 weeks per year, 6...Ch. 9 - Consider again the kitty litter ordering policy...Ch. 9 - In a Q system, the demand rate for strawberry ice...Ch. 9 - Petromax Enterprises uses a continuous review...Ch. 9 - In a continuous review inventory system, the lead...Ch. 9 - In a two-bin inventory system, the demand for...Ch. 9 - You are in charge of inventory control of a highly...Ch. 9 - Your firm uses a continuous review system and...Ch. 9 - A company begins a review of ordering policies for...Ch. 9 - Prob. 22PCh. 9 - The Farmer’s Wife is a country store...Ch. 9 - Prob. 24PCh. 9 - Prob. 25PCh. 9 - Prob. 26PCh. 9 - In a P system, the lead time for a box of...Ch. 9 - Suppose that Sam’s Cat Hotel in Problem 13 uses...Ch. 9 - Your firm uses a periodic review system for all...Ch. 9 - Using the same information as in Problem 21,...Ch. 9 - Wood County Hospital consumes 1,000 boxes of...Ch. 9 - A golf specialty wholesaler operates 50 weeks per...Ch. 9 - What is the EOQ and what is the lowest total cost?Ch. 9 - What is the annual cost of holding inventory at...Ch. 9 - Prob. 3AMECh. 9 - Prob. 4AMECh. 9 - Prob. 5AMECh. 9 - Prob. 6AMECh. 9 - Comment on the sensitivity of the EOQ model to...Ch. 9 - Consider the pressures for small versus large...Ch. 9 - Prob. 2VCCh. 9 - The Marker Maker© product recently experienced an...Ch. 9 - Prob. 1CCh. 9 - Prob. 2C
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