EBK OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
12th Edition
ISBN: 8220100283963
Author: Stevenson
Publisher: YUZU
expand_more
expand_more
format_list_bulleted
Question
Chapter 5.S, Problem 11DRQ
Summary Introduction
To determine: The information that a decision maker requires to perform an expected value analysis of a problem. Also, find the suitable options that are available to the decision maker if the probabilities of the state of nature are not known.
Introduction: Expected value is an anticipated value for an investment. The expected value is computed by multiplying every possible outcome with the likelihood of each outcome occurring and summing the all values. Investors use expected values to select the scenario that provides a desired outcome.
Expert Solution & Answer
Want to see the full answer?
Check out a sample textbook solution
Students have asked these similar questions
Under what circumstances is expected monetary value appropriate as a decision criterion? When isn’t it appropriate
Using decision trees analysis and EMV, what should DMR do?
Sun TV sells TV sets. It does not sell smart TVs so customers do not come to Sun TV if they want to purchase
smart TVs. Sun TV wants to start selling smart TVs and will only sell smart TVs to customers to whom they
advertise. Managers use customer information (income level, previous purchase history) to decide which
customers they should target. The team needs to decide how sure it must be in predicting customer interest in
a smart TV. If it is too cautious, it will choose a very high cutoff probability and only market to customers who
it believes are very likely to be in the market for a smart TV. This may cause them to miss out on many customers.
If they are too aggressive and choose a low cutoff probability, they may identify more individuals interested in
buying smart TVs but also end up wasting marketing dollars on customers who are not interested in purchasing
smart TVs. To choose a cutoff probability, the team develops the confusion matrices below for two cutoff
probabilities on…
Chapter 5 Solutions
EBK OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
Ch. 5.8 - Explain the meaning of the phrase Hours versus...Ch. 5.8 - Prob. 1.2RQCh. 5.8 - Prob. 1.3RQCh. 5.8 - Prob. 1.4RQCh. 5.8 - Prob. 1.5RQCh. 5.S - Prob. 1DRQCh. 5.S - Prob. 2DRQCh. 5.S - Explain the term bounded rationality.Ch. 5.S - Prob. 4DRQCh. 5.S - Prob. 5DRQ
Ch. 5.S - What information is contained in a payoff table?Ch. 5.S - Prob. 7DRQCh. 5.S - Prob. 8DRQCh. 5.S - Under what circumstances is expected monetary...Ch. 5.S - Explain or define each of these terms: a. Laplace...Ch. 5.S - Prob. 11DRQCh. 5.S - Prob. 12DRQCh. 5.S - Prob. 13DRQCh. 5.S - Prob. 1PCh. 5.S - Refer to problem1. Suppose after a certain amount...Ch. 5.S - Refer to Problems 1 and 2 Construct a graph that...Ch. 5.S - Prob. 4PCh. 5.S - Prob. 5PCh. 5.S - The lease of Theme Park, Inc., is about to expire....Ch. 5.S - Prob. 7PCh. 5.S - Prob. 8PCh. 5.S - Prob. 9PCh. 5.S - A manager must decide how many machines of a...Ch. 5.S - Prob. 11PCh. 5.S - Prob. 12PCh. 5.S - Prob. 13PCh. 5.S - Prob. 14PCh. 5.S - Give this payoff table: a. Determine the range of...Ch. 5.S - Prob. 16PCh. 5.S - Repeat all parts of problem 16, assuming the value...Ch. 5.S - Prob. 18PCh. 5 - Prob. 1DRQCh. 5 - Prob. 2DRQCh. 5 - How do long-term and short-term capacity...Ch. 5 - Give an example of a good and a service that...Ch. 5 - Give some example of building flexibility into...Ch. 5 - Why is it important to adopt a big-picture...Ch. 5 - What is meant by capacity in chunks, and why is...Ch. 5 - Prob. 8DRQCh. 5 - How can a systems approach to capacity planning be...Ch. 5 - Prob. 10DRQCh. 5 - Why is it important to match process capabilities...Ch. 5 - Briefly discuss how uncertainty affects capacity...Ch. 5 - Prob. 13DRQCh. 5 - Prob. 14DRQCh. 5 - Prob. 15DRQCh. 5 - Prob. 16DRQCh. 5 - What is the benefit to a business organization of...Ch. 5 - Prob. 1TSCh. 5 - Prob. 2TSCh. 5 - Prob. 3TSCh. 5 - Prob. 1CTECh. 5 - Prob. 2CTECh. 5 - Identify four potential unethical actions or...Ch. 5 - Any increase in efficiency also increases...Ch. 5 - Prob. 1PCh. 5 - In a job shop, effective capacity is only 50...Ch. 5 - A producer of pottery is considering the addition...Ch. 5 - A small firm intends to increase the capacity of a...Ch. 5 - A producer of felt-tip pens has received a...Ch. 5 - A real estate agent is considering changing her...Ch. 5 - A firm plans to begin production of a new small...Ch. 5 - A manager is trying to decide whether to purchase...Ch. 5 - A company manufactures a product using two machine...Ch. 5 - A company must decide which type of machine to...Ch. 5 - Prob. 11PCh. 5 - A manager must decide how many machines of a...Ch. 5 - Prob. 13PCh. 5 - The following diagram shows a four-step process...Ch. 5 - Prob. 15PCh. 5 - Prob. 16PCh. 5 - Prob. 17PCh. 5 - Prob. 18PCh. 5 - A new machine will cost 18,000, butt result it...Ch. 5 - Remodelling an office will cost 25,000 and will...Ch. 5 - Prob. 1CQCh. 5 - Prob. 2CQCh. 5 - Prob. 3CQ
Knowledge Booster
Similar questions
- Distinguish between the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) criterion and theExpected Utility Value criterion to decision makingarrow_forwardList down the decision making process and elaborate your answer with an examplearrow_forwardWhat exactly is sensitivity analysis, and how does it help a decision maker?arrow_forward
- A developer has requested your advice for the selling price per sg.m, of flats in an area of your choice. You should retrieve 20 asking prices for residential flats in your preferred area from agents' websites. Proceed with all necessary adjustments and estimate a value per sg.m, for a typical 2 bedroom flat that he is aiming to build. Additionally, retrieve asking rental prices for the same area and proceed with the necessary adjustments in order to estimate the ARY. Present your analysis and the way of thinking in 500 words and also support your opinion with an excel table showing your adjustments.arrow_forwardDefine the goal of decision analysis and how different decision makers may approach risk in their terms of assessment utility.arrow_forwardPls help ASAP on botharrow_forward
- The following payoff table shows the profit for a decision problem with two states of nature and two decision alternatives. Decision Alternative State of Nature $1 d₁ d₂ (a) Suppose P(s₁) = 0.2 and P(5₂) = 0.8. What is the best decision using the expected value approach? The best decision is --?-- with an expected value of 12 $₂ 6 3 5 (b) Perform sensitivity analysis on the payoffs for decision alternative d₂. Assume the probabilities are as given in part (a), and find the range of payoffs under states of natures, and so that will keep the solution found in part (a) optimal. As long as the payoff for s₁ under d₁ is --?-- , then the solution found in part (a) will be optimal. then the solution found in part (a) will be optimal. As long as the payoff for s₂ under d₁ is --?-- Is the solution more sensitive to the payoff under state of nature s₁ or 5₂? O $₁ 0 5₂arrow_forwardb) Your company is testing a site for drilling for oil. You may hit dry well, a small oil well, or a large oil well. Dry well Small oil well Large oil well Drill -5000 1000 6000 Do not drill ii. What would be the best decision under the maximax, maximin, and Laplace criteria?arrow_forwardConstruct a decision tree for this problem. What is the recommended decision if the agency opinion is not used? What is the expected value? What is the expected value of perfect information? What is Hale’s optimal decision strategy assuming the agency’s information is used? What is the expected value of the agency’s information? Is the agency’s information worth the $5000 fee? What is the maximum that Hale should be willing to pay for the information? What is the recommended decision?arrow_forward
- What would be the best way to estimate whether a piece of land could be used to manage an existing (at a profit) in the relatively short- and long-run? Explain what information you would need to make the decision what would be a “Second best” alternative to the criteria you picked first?arrow_forwardConstruct and submit a Decision Tree that depicts the information provided in the case to either continue developing a new software product or to abandon the project due to its high cost and uncertain market potential. In addition, you must provide an explanation of your decision tree and support your decision with the literature.arrow_forwardHow would you go about calculating the likelihood of a "super-event" or a "unique event?" What variables would you take into account ?arrow_forward
arrow_back_ios
SEE MORE QUESTIONS
arrow_forward_ios
Recommended textbooks for you
Practical Management ScienceOperations ManagementISBN:9781337406659Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.Publisher:Cengage,
Operations ManagementOperations ManagementISBN:9781259667473Author:William J StevensonPublisher:McGraw-Hill Education
Operations and Supply Chain Management (Mcgraw-hi...Operations ManagementISBN:9781259666100Author:F. Robert Jacobs, Richard B ChasePublisher:McGraw-Hill Education
Purchasing and Supply Chain ManagementOperations ManagementISBN:9781285869681Author:Robert M. Monczka, Robert B. Handfield, Larry C. Giunipero, James L. PattersonPublisher:Cengage Learning
Production and Operations Analysis, Seventh Editi...Operations ManagementISBN:9781478623069Author:Steven Nahmias, Tava Lennon OlsenPublisher:Waveland Press, Inc.
Practical Management Science
Operations Management
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:Cengage,
Operations Management
Operations Management
ISBN:9781259667473
Author:William J Stevenson
Publisher:McGraw-Hill Education
Operations and Supply Chain Management (Mcgraw-hi...
Operations Management
ISBN:9781259666100
Author:F. Robert Jacobs, Richard B Chase
Publisher:McGraw-Hill Education
Purchasing and Supply Chain Management
Operations Management
ISBN:9781285869681
Author:Robert M. Monczka, Robert B. Handfield, Larry C. Giunipero, James L. Patterson
Publisher:Cengage Learning
Production and Operations Analysis, Seventh Editi...
Operations Management
ISBN:9781478623069
Author:Steven Nahmias, Tava Lennon Olsen
Publisher:Waveland Press, Inc.