Operations and Supply Chain Management 9th edition
9th Edition
ISBN: 9781119320975
Author: Roberta S. Russell, Bernard W. Taylor III
Publisher: WILEY
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Textbook Question
Chapter 4, Problem 14P
La Pied manufactures high-quality orthopedic shoes. Over the past five years, the general public has “found” La Pied products, and sales have skyrocketed. One unanticipated result has been a sharp increase in factory returns for repair, since local shoe repair shops do not have the materials or expertise to fix La Pied products. The popular walking sandal has been targeted for redesign. Currently, the leather pieces are glued together, then stitched. There is a 70% chance that the glue will last for the life of the sandal, and a 50% chance that the stitching will remain intact. Determine the sandal’s reliability. How would the reliability of the sandal increase if the company adds two more rows of stitching?
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Scenario
You have been given a task to create a demand forecast for the second year of sales of a premium outdoor grill.
Accurate forecasts are important for many reasons, including for the company to ensure they have the materials
they need to create the products required in a certain period of time. Your objective is to minimize the forecast
error, which will be measured using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) with a goal of being below 25%.
You have historical monthly sales data for the past year and access to software that provides forecasts based on
five different forecasting techniques (Naïve, 3-Month Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing for .2, Exponential
Smooth for .5, and Seasonal) to help determine the best forecast for that particular month. Based on the given
data, you will identify trends and patterns to create a more accurate forecast.
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next…
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next
month.
Remember to select the forecasting technique that produces the forecast error nearest to zero. For example:
a. Naïve Forecast is 230 and the Forecast Error is -15.
b. 3-Month Moving Forecast is 290 and the Forecast Error is -75.
c. Exponential Smoothing Forecast for .2 is 308 and the Forecast Error is -93.
d. Exponential Smoothing Forecast for .5 is 279 and the Forecast Error is -64.
e. Seasonal Forecast is 297 and the Forecast Error is -82.
The forecast for the next month would be 230 as the Naïve Forecast had the Forecast Error closest to zero with a
-15. This forecasting technique was the best performing technique for that month. You do not need to do any
external analysis-the forecast error for each strategy is already calculated for you in the tables below.
Naïve
Month Period
Actual
Demand
Naïve Forecast
Error
3-
Month
Moving
Forecast
3-
Month
Moving…
Scenario
You have been given a task to create a demand forecast for the second year of sales of a premium outdoor grill.
Accurate forecasts are important for many reasons, including for the company to ensure they have the materials
they need to create the products required in a certain period of time. Your objective is to minimize the forecast
error, which will be measured using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) with a goal of being below 25%.
You have historical monthly sales data for the past year and access to software that provides forecasts based on
five different forecasting techniques (Naïve, 3-Month Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing for .2, Exponential
Smooth for .5, and Seasonal) to help determine the best forecast for that particular month. Based on the given
data, you will identify trends and patterns to create a more accurate forecast.
Approach
Consider the previous month's forecast to identify which technique is most effective. Use that to forecast the next…
Chapter 4 Solutions
Operations and Supply Chain Management 9th edition
Ch. 4 - Designing the Everyday Michael Graves, probably...Ch. 4 - Designing the Everyday Michael Graves, probably...Ch. 4 - Jugaad, Design for the Times India has a Hindi...Ch. 4 - Jugaad, Design for the Times India has a Hindi...Ch. 4 - Consider Nikes Flyknit Design Nike has been...Ch. 4 - Consider Nikes Flyknit Design Nike has been...Ch. 4 - Consider Nikes Flyknit Design Nike has been...Ch. 4 - Creating Fairphones Fairphone launched its first...Ch. 4 - Creating Fairphones Fairphone launched its first...Ch. 4 - Creating Fairphones Fairphone launched its first...
Ch. 4 - Creating Fairphones Fairphone launched its first...Ch. 4 - Describe the strategic significance of design. How...Ch. 4 - Give an example of a product or service you have...Ch. 4 - Sometimes failures provide the best opportunities...Ch. 4 - BusinessWeek sponsors a best design competition...Ch. 4 - Prob. 6QCh. 4 - Prob. 7QCh. 4 - Prob. 8QCh. 4 - Prob. 10QCh. 4 - Prob. 11QCh. 4 - Prob. 12QCh. 4 - Prob. 13QCh. 4 - How can design teams improve the quality of...Ch. 4 - Discuss the concept of concurrent design. What are...Ch. 4 - Prob. 16QCh. 4 - Describe the objectives of failure mode and effect...Ch. 4 - Prob. 22QCh. 4 - Prob. 1PCh. 4 - An alternative airplane design is given here....Ch. 4 - Calculate the reliability of the following system.Ch. 4 - Prob. 4PCh. 4 - Prob. 5PCh. 4 - Prob. 6PCh. 4 - Glen Evans is an emergency medical technician for...Ch. 4 - Examine the systems given below. Which system is...Ch. 4 - Prob. 9PCh. 4 - Prob. 10PCh. 4 - Prob. 11PCh. 4 - You have won two tickets to a Lady Gaga concert in...Ch. 4 - Prob. 13PCh. 4 - La Pied manufactures high-quality orthopedic...Ch. 4 - Prob. 15PCh. 4 - The Management Department recently purchased a...Ch. 4 - Prob. 17PCh. 4 - As a regional sales manager, Nora Burke travels...Ch. 4 - Nadia Algar is the overworked IT resource person...Ch. 4 - Derek is disappointed in his high-speed Internet...Ch. 4 - Prob. 21PCh. 4 - Prob. 1.1CPCh. 4 - Prob. 1.2CPCh. 4 - Prob. 1.3CPCh. 4 - Greening Product Design Hal Parker was not...Ch. 4 - Greening Product Design Hal Parker was not...Ch. 4 - Greening Product Design Hal Parker was not...Ch. 4 - Greening Product Design Hal Parker was not...Ch. 4 - Lean and Mean Megan McNeil, product manager for...
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