Operations Management
13th Edition
ISBN: 9781259667473
Author: William J Stevenson
Publisher: McGraw-Hill Education
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Textbook Question
Chapter 3, Problem 1P
A commercial baker, has recorded sales (in dozens) for three products, shown as follows:
a. Predict order for the following day for each of the product using an appropriate naive method Hint: Plot each data set.
b. What should the use of sales data instead of demand imply?
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Students have asked these similar questions
4
.Substitute for Problem # 4 on in attachment)-Calculate the MAD,revised MAD and the Revised Forecast for months 1-6 for the following three groups,where the Forecast stands for Forecast Demand.Has your forecast improved ? Tell me how would you go about improving the revised forecast( for each of the three groups)without actually doing so?
Estate Planning Group Auditing and Accounting Group Business Consulting Group
Month Actual Demand Forecast Actual Demand Forecast Actual Demand Forecast
1 100 125 270 230 140 135
2 90 125 240 230 130 135
3 110 125 280 230 160 135
4 115 125 260 230 180 135
5 130 125 300 230 200 135
6 115 125 220 230 190 135
The following gives the number of pints of type B blood used at Woodlawn Hospital in
the past 6 weeks:
Week Of
Pints Used
August 31
360
September 7 389
September 14 410
September 21 381
September 28 368
October 5
374
a. Forecast the demand for the week of October 12 using a 4-week moving average.
[Select]
b. What is the MAD? [Select]
c. Use a 4-week weighted moving average, with weights of .1, .3, .6, and .8 using .8
for the most recent week. Forecast demand for the week of October 12.
[Select]
d. What is the MAD? [Select]
e. Compute the forecast for the week of October 12 using exponential smoothing
with a forecast for August 31 of 363 and a = .47 [Select]
f. What is the MAD? [Select]
g. Based on evaluating all three forecasting models, which forecast should be
chosen? [Select]
Here are the actual tabulated demands for an item for a nine-month period (January through September). Your supervisor wants to test two moving average forecasting methods to see which one was better over this period.
Month
Actual Demand
Jan
120
Feb
140
March
160
April
180
May
170
June
190
July
150
August
160
September
170
a. Forecast April through September using a three-month moving average and calculate MAD for the forecasts.
b. Forecast May through September using a four-month moving average and calculate MAD for the forecasts.
Chapter 3 Solutions
Operations Management
Ch. 3.15 - Prob. 1.1RQCh. 3.15 - Prob. 1.2RQCh. 3.15 - Prob. 1.3RQCh. 3 - What are the main advantage that quantitative...Ch. 3 - What are some of the consequences of poor...Ch. 3 - List the specific weaknesses of each of these...Ch. 3 - Forecasts are generally wrong a. Why are forecasts...Ch. 3 - What is the purpose of establishing control limits...Ch. 3 - What factors would you consider in deciding...Ch. 3 - Contrast the use of MAD and MSE in evaluating...
Ch. 3 - What advantages as a forecasting tool does...Ch. 3 - How does the number of periods in a moving average...Ch. 3 - What factors enter into the choice of a value for...Ch. 3 - Prob. 11DRQCh. 3 - Explain how using a centered moving average with a...Ch. 3 - Contrast the terms sales and demand.Ch. 3 - Contrast the reactive and proactive approaches to...Ch. 3 - Explain how flexibility in production systems...Ch. 3 - How is forecasting in the context of a supply...Ch. 3 - Which type of forecasting approach, qualitative or...Ch. 3 - Prob. 18DRQCh. 3 - Choose the type of forecasting technique (survey,...Ch. 3 - Explain the trade-off between responsiveness and...Ch. 3 - Who needs to be involved in preparing forecasts?Ch. 3 - How has technology had an impact on forecasting?Ch. 3 - It has been said that forecasting using...Ch. 3 - What capability would an organization have to have...Ch. 3 - When a new business is started, or a patent idea...Ch. 3 - Discuss how you would manage a poor forecast.Ch. 3 - Omar has beard from some of his customers that...Ch. 3 - Give three examples of unethical conduct involving...Ch. 3 - A commercial baker, has recorded sales (in dozens)...Ch. 3 - National Scan, Inc., sells radio frequency...Ch. 3 - A dry cleaner uses exponential smoothing to...Ch. 3 - An electrical contractors records during the last...Ch. 3 - A cosmetics manufacturer s marketing department...Ch. 3 - Prob. 6PCh. 3 - Freight car loadings ova a 12-year period at a...Ch. 3 - Air travel on Mountain Airline for the past 18...Ch. 3 - a. Obtain the linear trend equation for the...Ch. 3 - After plotting demand for four periods, an...Ch. 3 - A manager of a store that sells and installs spas...Ch. 3 - The following equation summarizes the trend...Ch. 3 - Compute seasonal relatives for this data the SA...Ch. 3 - A tourist center is open on weekends (Friday,...Ch. 3 - The manager of a fashionable restaurant open...Ch. 3 - Obtain estimates of daily relatives for the number...Ch. 3 - A pharmacist has been monitoring sales of 2...Ch. 3 - New car sales for a dealer in Cook County,...Ch. 3 - The following table shows a tool and die companys...Ch. 3 - An analyst must decide between two different...Ch. 3 - Two different forecasting techniques (F1 and F2)...Ch. 3 - Two independent methods of forecasting based on...Ch. 3 - Long-Life Insurance has developed a linear model...Ch. 3 - Timely Transport provides local delivery service...Ch. 3 - The manager of a seafood restaurant was asked to...Ch. 3 - The following data were collected during a study...Ch. 3 - Lovely Lawns Inc., intends to use sales of lawn...Ch. 3 - The manager of a travel agency has been using a...Ch. 3 - Refer to the data in problem 22 a. Compute a...Ch. 3 - The classified department of a monthly magazine...Ch. 3 - A textbook publishing company has compiled data on...Ch. 3 - A manager has just receded an valuation from an...Ch. 3 - A manager uses this equation to predict demand for...Ch. 3 - A manager uses a trend equation plus quarterly...Ch. 3 - ML MANUFACTURING ML Manufacturing makes various...Ch. 3 - ML MANUFACTURING ML Manufacturing makes various...Ch. 3 - HIGHLINE FINANCIAL SERVICES, LTD. Highline...
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?arrow_forwardThe Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?arrow_forwardThe file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?arrow_forward
- What method would you choose of forecasting technique, which requires subjective inputs obtained from various sources and are analyzed? O a. Judgmental forecasting method O b. Statistical forecasting method O c. Associative model O d. Time series forecasting methodarrow_forward1. Figure 8.90 shows summer air visibility measurements for Denver, Colorado. The acceptable visibility standard is 100, with readings above 100 indicating clean air and good visibility, and readings below 100 indicating temperature inversions caused by forest fires, volcanic eruptions, or collisions with comets. Figure 8.9 Summer Air Visibility Measurements Visibility rating 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50- 25 0 Year 2 Year 1 22 25 28 31 3 July 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 Date Augustarrow_forwardformula refers Naive Forecast method. O a. Forecast value for the current period = Last period actual value O b. Last period forecast demand value = Actual value for the current period O c. Ratio of Actual value / Forecast value O d. Sum of all data / number of dataarrow_forward
- Gretchen is proposing to present the sales from her lemonade stand as a pie chart, tracking how much she sells each day to track the overall trend. Explain why this plan will not work and what she could use instead.arrow_forwardDemand Planning - Which of the following is a pitfall of using a customer’s forecasts? Customers forecast process not sound and forecasts inaccurate. Customer wants to participate in the CPFR process. Customer utilizes a lot of information to create their forecasts. All of the abovearrow_forwardWhat type of analytics seeks to recognize what is going on as well as the likely forecast and make decisions to achieve the best performance possible? domain predictive prescriptive descriptive What does the robustness of a data mining method refer to? its ability to construct a prediction model efficiently given a large amount of data its speed of computation and computational costs in using the mode its ability to overcome noisy data to make somewhat accurate predictions its ability to predict the outcome of a previously unknown data set accuratelyarrow_forward
- Note:- Do not provide handwritten solution. Maintain accuracy and quality in your answer. Take care of plagiarism. Answer completely. You will get up vote for sure.arrow_forwardCollaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR) states cooperative management of demand and supply through joint visibility and replenishment of products in the SC. Select one: a. True b. Falsearrow_forwardDemand forecasting is a process of O a. Estimation of previous year demand based on current data b. Estimation of future demand based on past and present data O c. Prediction of past demand based on future data o d. Prediction of last year demand using past dataarrow_forward
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