Modern Business Statistics with Microsoft Office Excel (with XLSTAT Education Edition Printed Access Card)
Modern Business Statistics with Microsoft Office Excel (with XLSTAT Education Edition Printed Access Card)
6th Edition
ISBN: 9780357228708
Author: David R. Anderson; Dennis J. Sweeney; Thomas A. Williams
Publisher: Cengage Learning US
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Chapter 20.4, Problem 15E

In the following profit payoff table for a decision problem with two states of nature and three decision alternatives, the prior probabilities for s1 and s2 are P(s1) = .8 and P(s2) = .2.

  State of Nature
Decision Alternative s1 s2
d1 15 10
d2 10 12
d3 8 20
  1. a. What is the optimal decision?
  2. b. Find the EVPI.
  3. c. Suppose that sample information I is obtained, with P(I | s1) = .20 and P(I | s2) = .75. Find the posterior probabilities P(s1 | I) and P(s2 | I). Recommend a decision alternative based on these probabilities.
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