You’ve been hired as a consultant for Spotifly to conduct a survey for them regarding customer satisfaction. From a random selection and poll of 1000 individuals (out of their 718,000 customers), you found that 63% were HIGHLY SATISFIED with Spotifly’s services. Surprisingly, the management team of Spotifly is furious with you and, as they are kicking you out of their building, they yell “At Spotifly, our customers love us! Everyone knows that two-thirds of our customers are HIGHLY SATISIFIED with us!” Hmm… is that really the case? That is, assuming they are right, then how likely is it to observe poll results so far below the true “high satisfaction” rate? (three decimals)
Compound Probability
Compound probability can be defined as the probability of the two events which are independent. It can be defined as the multiplication of the probability of two events that are not dependent.
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Probability theory is a branch of mathematics that deals with the subject of probability. Although there are many different concepts of probability, probability theory expresses the definition mathematically through a series of axioms. Usually, these axioms express probability in terms of a probability space, which assigns a measure with values ranging from 0 to 1 to a set of outcomes known as the sample space. An event is a subset of these outcomes that is described.
Conditional Probability
By definition, the term probability is expressed as a part of mathematics where the chance of an event that may either occur or not is evaluated and expressed in numerical terms. The range of the value within which probability can be expressed is between 0 and 1. The higher the chance of an event occurring, the closer is its value to be 1. If the probability of an event is 1, it means that the event will happen under all considered circumstances. Similarly, if the probability is exactly 0, then no matter the situation, the event will never occur.
You’ve been hired as a consultant for Spotifly to conduct a survey for them regarding customer satisfaction.
From a random selection and poll of 1000 individuals (out of their 718,000 customers), you found that 63% were HIGHLY SATISFIED with Spotifly’s services. Surprisingly, the management team of Spotifly is furious with you and, as they are kicking you out of their building, they yell “At Spotifly, our customers love us! Everyone knows that two-thirds of our customers are HIGHLY SATISIFIED with us!”
Hmm… is that really the case? That is, assuming they are right, then how likely is it to observe poll results so far below the true “high satisfaction” rate? (three decimals)
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