Your company is considering offering 600 employees the opportunity to transfer to its new headquarters in Ottawa and, as personnel manager, you decide that it would be fairest if the transfer offers are decided by means of a lottery. Assuming that your company currently employs 300 managers, 400 factory workers, and 300 miscellaneous staff, find the following probabilities, leaving the answers as formulas. (a) All the managers will be offered the opportunity. (b) You will be offered the opportunity.
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- A firm making production plans believes there is a 30% probability the price will be $10, a 50% probability the price will be $15, and a 20% probability the price will be $20. The manager must decide whether to produce 6,000 units of output (A), 8,000 units (B) or 10,000 units (C). The following table shows 9 possible outcomes depending on the output chosen and the actual price. Production Profit (Loss) when price is $10 $15 $20 6,000 (A) −$200 $400 $1,000 8,000 (B) −$400 $600 $1,600 10,000 (C) −$1,000 $800 $3,000 What is the variance if 6,000 units are produced?You hold an oral, or English, auction among three bidders. You estimate that each bidder has a value of either $48 or $60 for the item, and you attach probabilities to each value of 50%. The winning bidder must pay a price equal to the second highest bid. The following table lists the eight possible combinations for bidder values. Each combination is equally likely to occur. On the following table, indicate the price paid by the winning bidder. Bidder 1 Value Bidder 2 Value Bidder 3 Value Probability Price ($) ($) ($) $48 $48 $48 0.125 $48 $48 $60 0.125 $48 $60 $48 0.125 $48 $60 $60 0.125 $60 $48 $48 0.125 $60 $48 $60 0.125 $60 $60 $48 0.125 $60 $60 $60 0.125 The expected price paid is ______ . Suppose that bidders 1 and 2 collude and would be willing to bid up to a maximum of their values, but the two bidders would not be willing to bid against each other. The probabilities of the…A man buys a racehorse for $25,000 and enters it in two races. He plans to sell the horse afterward, hoping to make a profit. If the horse wins both races, its value will jump to $105,000. If it wins one of the races, it will be worth $65,000. If it loses both races, it will be worth only $10,000. The man believes there is a 30% chance that the horse will win the first race and a 35% chance that it will win the second one. Assuming that the two races are independent events, find the man's expected profit.
- c) A manufacturer is considering the production of a new and better mousetrap. She estimates the probability that the new mousetrap is successful is ¾. If it is successful, it would generate profits of $174,000. The development costs of the mousetrap are $121,000. Should the manufacturer proceed with plans for the new mousetrap? Why or why not?Charlie buys a one-year term home insurance policy for $p, that will pay $200,000 in the event of a major catastrophe and $35,000 in the event of a minor catastrophe. Charlie's home has a 0.2% chance of a major catastrophe and a 0.7% of a minor catastrophe during the one year term. What did the insurance company charge Charlie for this policy if the company expected to break even?Roulette is a casino game that involves players betting on where a ball will land on a spinning wheel. An American roulette wheel has 38 numbered slots — half of the slots from 1 to 36 are red and the other half are black. Slots 00 and 00 are both green. Suppose that a player bets $1 on a single slot. If the ball lands in their slot, the player gets their initial $1 back plus a payout of $35. If the ball doesn't land in their slot, they lose their $1 bet. Let X= the player's net gain from a $1 bet on a single slot. Here is the probability distribution of X: Find the expected value of a player's net gain on a $1 bet on a single slot.You may round your answer to the nearest thousandth.
- the carnival has come to town, and lucky louie has once again set up his pavilion. He offers a simple game consisting of rolling two normal six-sided dice at the same time for the extraordinarily low price of $3.00 per play. If the player rolls a sum of 3, the player wins $13.00; if the sum is a 9, the player wins $9.00; and if the sum is a 12, the player wins $12.00. Otherwise, the player does not win anything. How much should you expect to win or lose per game (after paying the $3.00) ?The St. Petersburg paradox is a coin flip game, where a fair coin is tossed successively, until heads occurs. If the first toss is heads, you win $1. If the first one is tails and the second one is heads, you win $2. If the first heads occurs in the third toss, you win $4 and so forth. The amount of money you win is doubled with each coin flip you survive. In the eighteenth century it was believed that the fair price for participating in such a game would be the expected wealth you gain. Show that the expectation value of the St. Petersburg game is infinite.James placed a $25 bet on a red and a $5 bet on the number 33 (which is black) on a standard 00 roulette wheel. -if the ball lands in a red space, he wins $25 on his 'red' but loses $5 on his '33' bet - so he wins $20 -if the ball lands the number 33, he loses $25 on his 'red' bet but wins $175 on his '33' bet: He wins $150 -if the ball lands on a spae that isn't red and isnt 33 he loses both bets, so he loses $30 So for each spin; he either wins $150, wins $20, or loses $30 -probability that he wins $150 is 1/38 or .0263 -probability that he wins $20 is 18/38 or .4737 -probability that he loses $30 is 19/38 or .5000 let X = the profit that james makes on the next spin x P (X=x) x*P(X=x) x^2*P(X=x) 150 .0263 3.945 591.75 20 .4737 9.474 189.48 -30 .5000 -15.000 450.00 sum (sigma) 1.000 -1.581 1231.23 u (expected value)= -$1.581 variance = 1228.73044 standard deviation = 35.053 FILL IN THE BLANK if you play 2500 times, and Let, x (x bar)= the mean winnings (or…
- A vending machine contains 1000 lollipops. Some of the lollipops are red, and the others are blue. You don’t know how many there are of each color. However, you do know that these two alternatives are equally likely. There are 900 blue lollipops and 100 red ones. There are 500 blue lollipops and 500 red ones. When you put a coin into the vending machine, it gives you a lollipop, chosen at random. Suppose that it gives you a blue lollipop. What is the probability that there are 900 blue lollipops and 100 red ones? Show how you got the answer.An urn contains 2 one-dollar bills, 1 five-dollar bill and 1 ten-dollar bill. A player draws bills one at a time without replacement from the urn until a ten-dollar bill is drawn. Then the game stops. All bills are kept by the player. Determine: (A) The probability of winning $11. (B) The probability of winning all bills in the urn. (C) The probability of the game stopping at the second draw. iew an example Get more help. (A) What is the probability of winning $11? (Type a decimal or a fraction. Simplify your answer.) Resume F11 Backspace F12 Print Screen Insert Scre Lock D Home M Delete End Pase Break Page Up A DALL Page Num Lock 11 ... (102 Co. Logitech Clear all Kviewed G Check answer lect: DIn the Illinois pick 3 lottery game, you pay 50 cents to select a sequence of 3 digits, such as 314. If you select the same sequence of three digits that are drawn by the organizer, then you win and collect 250$. Show all of your steps for all of the following problems: 1. How many different selections are possible and what is the probability of winning? 2. If you win, what is your net profit? if you do not win, what is your net profit? 3. Let X be the random variable representing your net profit. determine the possible values that X can take on, and the probability of each: write in distribution Table 4. Find your expected winnings-that is, find the expected value of X.