You are conducting a study to see if the proportion of voters who prefer the Democratic candidate is significantly smaller than 58% at a level of significance of αα = 0.01. According to your sample, 43 out of 85 potential voters prefer the Democratic candidate.

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You are conducting a study to see if the proportion of voters who prefer the Democratic candidate is significantly smaller than 58% at a level of significance of αα = 0.01. According to your sample, 43 out of 85 potential voters prefer the Democratic candidate.

  1. For this study, we should use    
  2. The null and alternative hypotheses would be:    
     Ho:           (please enter a decimal)   
     H1:           (Please enter a decimal)
  1. The test statistic     = (please show your answer to 3 decimal places.)
  2. The p-value = (Please show your answer to 4 decimal places.)
  3. The p-value is     αα
  4. Based on this, we should      the null hypothesis.
  5. Thus, the final conclusion is that ...
    • The data suggest the population proportion is not significantly smaller than 58% at αα = 0.01, so there is sufficient evidence to conclude that the proportion of voters who prefer the Democratic candidate is equal to 58%.
    • The data suggest the populaton proportion is significantly smaller than 58% at αα = 0.01, so there is sufficient evidence to conclude that the proportion of voters who prefer the Democratic candidate is smaller than 58%
    • The data suggest the population proportion is not significantly smaller than 58% at αα = 0.01, so there is not sufficient evidence to conclude that the proportion of voters who prefer the Democratic candidate is smaller than 58%.
  6. Interpret the p-value in the context of the study.
    • There is a 8.31% chance that fewer than 58% of all voters prefer the Democratic candidate.
    • If the sample proportion of voters who prefer the Democratic candidate is 51% and if another 85 voters are surveyed then there would be a 8.31% chance of concluding that fewer than 58% of all voters surveyed prefer the Democratic candidate.
    • If the population proportion of voters who prefer the Democratic candidate is 58% and if another 85 voters are surveyed then there would be a 8.31% chance fewer than 51% of the 85 voters surveyed prefer the Democratic candidate.
    • There is a 58% chance of a Type I error.
  7. Interpret the level of significance in the context of the study.
    • There is a 1% chance that the earth is flat and we never actually sent a man to the moon.
    • There is a 1% chance that the proportion of voters who prefer the Democratic candidate is smaller than 58%.
    • If the proportion of voters who prefer the Democratic candidate is smaller than 58% and if another 85 voters are surveyed then there would be a 1% chance that we would end up falsely concluding that the proportion of voters who prefer the Democratic candidate is equal to 58%.
    • If the population proportion of voters who prefer the Democratic candidate is 58% and if another 85 voters are surveyed then there would be a 1% chance that we would end up falsely concluding that the proportion of voters who prefer the Democratic candidate is smaller than 58%

 

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