What is the the probability of a customer trading with Mafuta in month 3, given that the customer initially traded with Mafuta in month 1?
Samburu estate has two petrol stations, Mafuta and Petroli. The residents of the estate buy fuel at the two stations on a monthly basis. A recent survey found that the customers were not totally loyal to either petrol station and that they were willing to change as a result of advertising, service, and other factors. It was established that if a customer bought fuel from Mafuta in any given month, there was only a 60% chance that the customer would buy from Mafuta the next month and a 40% likelihood that the customer would buy fuel from Petroli the next month. Likewise, if a customer traded with Petroli in a given month, there was an 80% that the customer would buy fuel from Petroli in the next month and a 20% likelihood that the customer would purchase gasoline from Mafuta.
Required:
What is the the probability of a customer trading with Mafuta in month 3, given that the customer initially traded with Mafuta in month 1?
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