### Bayesian Inference Problem A cab was involved at night in a hit-and-run accident. In this town, there are only two cab companies: the Blue company, which has 80% of the cabs, and the Green company, with the remaining 20%. A witness identified the hit-and-run cab as Blue. The case proceeded to trial. A crucial part of the testimony involved a test of the reliability of the eyewitness in identifying a cab as either Blue or Green under similar conditions to those of the accident night. The results of these tests showed that the witness correctly identified a Blue cab as Blue 70% of the time, and a Green cab as Green 80% of the time. Based on the witness's claim and the court's test, what is the probability that the cab involved in the accident was, in fact, Blue, as the witness claimed?

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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Author:Sheldon Ross
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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### Bayesian Inference Problem

A cab was involved at night in a hit-and-run accident. In this town, there are only two cab companies: the Blue company, which has 80% of the cabs, and the Green company, with the remaining 20%. A witness identified the hit-and-run cab as Blue. The case proceeded to trial.

A crucial part of the testimony involved a test of the reliability of the eyewitness in identifying a cab as either Blue or Green under similar conditions to those of the accident night. The results of these tests showed that the witness correctly identified a Blue cab as Blue 70% of the time, and a Green cab as Green 80% of the time.

Based on the witness's claim and the court's test, what is the probability that the cab involved in the accident was, in fact, Blue, as the witness claimed?
Transcribed Image Text:### Bayesian Inference Problem A cab was involved at night in a hit-and-run accident. In this town, there are only two cab companies: the Blue company, which has 80% of the cabs, and the Green company, with the remaining 20%. A witness identified the hit-and-run cab as Blue. The case proceeded to trial. A crucial part of the testimony involved a test of the reliability of the eyewitness in identifying a cab as either Blue or Green under similar conditions to those of the accident night. The results of these tests showed that the witness correctly identified a Blue cab as Blue 70% of the time, and a Green cab as Green 80% of the time. Based on the witness's claim and the court's test, what is the probability that the cab involved in the accident was, in fact, Blue, as the witness claimed?
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