Šuppose a team of clinical psychologists develops a test to predict which patients who are treated with opioid painkillers develop a serious problem called Opioid Use Disorder (OUD). Let's suppose that the tests are right 80% of the time both in predicting which patients treated with an opioid will develop Opioid Use Disorder and which will not. That's a pretty good test. Suppose we give the test to 1,000 people with the partial results shown here. In that case, here is the question: What is the likelihood (percent of the time) that a person who is predicted to develop OUD actually does so (that is, he or she actually develops the OUD)? ACTUAL OUD Not OUD Predict OUD 80 TEST RESULT Predict Not OUD 720 100 900 1,000 80/720 = 11% 720 / 900 = 80% 80/260 = 31% 260 / 1,000 = 26%

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Suppose a team of clinical psychologists develops a test to predict which patients who are treated with opioid painkillers develop a
serious problem called Opioid Use Disorder (OUD). Let's suppose that the tests are right 80% of the time both in predicting which
patients treated with an opioid will develop Opioid Use Disorder and which will not. That's a pretty good test. Suppose we give the test
to 1,000 people with the partial results shown here. In that case, here is the question:
What is the likelihood (percent of the time) that a person who is predicted to develop OUD actually does so (that is, he or she actually develops
the OUD)?
ACTUAL
OUD
Not OUD
Predict OUD
80
TEST RESULT
720
Predict Not OUD
100
900
1,000
80/720 = 11%
%3D
720 / 900 = 80%
%3D
80/260 = 31%
260/1,000 = 26%
Transcribed Image Text:Suppose a team of clinical psychologists develops a test to predict which patients who are treated with opioid painkillers develop a serious problem called Opioid Use Disorder (OUD). Let's suppose that the tests are right 80% of the time both in predicting which patients treated with an opioid will develop Opioid Use Disorder and which will not. That's a pretty good test. Suppose we give the test to 1,000 people with the partial results shown here. In that case, here is the question: What is the likelihood (percent of the time) that a person who is predicted to develop OUD actually does so (that is, he or she actually develops the OUD)? ACTUAL OUD Not OUD Predict OUD 80 TEST RESULT 720 Predict Not OUD 100 900 1,000 80/720 = 11% %3D 720 / 900 = 80% %3D 80/260 = 31% 260/1,000 = 26%
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