Using Bayes’s formula what is the p(H|E
Statistical studies have repeatedly shown that about 85% of all bicyclists where helmets. Further studies reveal that about 80% of those wearing helmets do not have head injuries. We do not have any data as to whether those who wear helmets are more safety conscious and therefore have fewer accidents. We do know that about 20% of those who do not wear helmets also experience no head injuries. That’s all the data we have. Mr. X was in a bicycle accident and suffered a head injury. (we do not know anything else, so do not try to factor in all sorts of possible scenarios). Given the above information what is the
H = Mr. X was wearing a helmet
E = head injury
The prior, p(H) = .85 Why? What does that figure represent?
What is p(~H)?
What is p(E|H)?
What is p(E|~H)?
Using Bayes’s formula what is the p(H|E)?
(display the formula), and..
Explain which way the final probability (the posterior) was revised…up or down. Why?
Trending now
This is a popular solution!
Step by step
Solved in 4 steps
