Use the following information to answer the questions that follow. Some of your project’s activities are listed below, with time estimates given in days. Activities A and N have been identified as critical. Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic A 4 6 12 B 2 3 3 D 1 2 3 F 1 2 4 N 2 5 8 Using your results from the previous two problems, what is the likelihood of finishing the project in 15 days or less? 2% 12% 88% 98%
Use the following information to answer the questions that follow. Some of your project’s activities are listed below, with time estimates given in days. Activities A and N have been identified as critical.
| Activity | Optimistic | Most Likely | Pessimistic |
| A | 4 | 6 | 12 |
| B | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| D | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| F | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| N | 2 | 5 | 8 |
Using your results from the previous two problems, what is the likelihood of finishing the project in 15 days or less?
- 2%
- 12%
- 88%
- 98%
Expected Activity time = (Optimistic + 4*Most Likely + Pessimistic ) / 6
Expected time of Activity A = (4 + 4*6 + 12 ) / 6 = 6.67
Expected time of Activity N = (2 + 4*5 + 8) / 6 = 5
Critical Path = A-N
Expected Project Completion time = 6.67 + 5 = 11.67
Variance of Activity = Square of [ Pessimistic - Optimistic ) / 6 ]
The variance of Activity A = Square of [ (12 - 4) / 6] = 1.33
Variance of Activity N = Square of [ (8 - 2) / 6] = 1
Variance of the Project = 1.33 + 1 = 2.33
Standard Deviation of the Project = Square root of Variance
Standard Deviation of the Project = √2.33 => 1.53
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