Today’s primary analysis was based on 196 cases, of which 185 cases of COVID-19 were observed in the placebo group versus 11 cases observed in the mRNA-1273 group, resulting in a point estimate of vaccine efficacy of 94.1%. . . . The Phase 3 COVE trial is a randomized, 1:1 placebo-controlled study testing mRNA-1273 at the 100 µg dose level in 30,000 participants in the U.S., ages 18 and older (Moderna 2020). (a) Vaccine efficacy is the
On November 30, 2020, the Covid-19 vaccine maker Moderna issued a press release containing the
following statement:
Today’s primary analysis was based on 196 cases, of which 185 cases of COVID-19 were observed
in the placebo group versus 11 cases observed in the mRNA-1273 group, resulting in a point estimate
of vaccine efficacy of 94.1%. . . . The Phase 3 COVE trial is a randomized, 1:1 placebo-controlled
study testing mRNA-1273 at the 100 µg dose level in 30,000 participants in the U.S., ages 18 and older
(Moderna 2020).
(a) Vaccine efficacy is the percentage reduction in a disease in a group of people who received a
vaccination in a clinical trial. Show how the company came up with the value 94.1% based on
the data given in the press release.
(b) Among the COVID-19 cases, let p be the probability that a participant have been vaccinated.
Determine the relationship between p and the vaccine efficacy. What is the point estimate pˆ of
p in this case?
(c) Determine the 95% confident interval of pˆ above
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